IRAN
The New Calculus With Iran

As the Feb. 11 anniversary of the 1979 Iranian revolution approaches, government and opposition forces are preparing for another set of confrontations on the streets of Iran. The government has warned against demonstrations, announcing on Tuesday that it would execute nine protesters in a clear attempt  to intimidate the opposition. Opposition leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, however, are "urging protesters to defy the government and take to the streets." In an interview earlier this week, Mousavi made some of his strongest criticisms yet of the current government, saying "the anniversary of the revolution, marked every year, is in fact meant for refreshing forces to confront the remnant of dictatorship." Mousavi said the Green movement represented "the continuation of the struggles of the days and months leading to the 1979 revolution." Karroubi "urged protesters to stay calm, warning that their enemies wished to provoke them into acts of violence," but acknowledged that the opposition's "increasing...demands can lead to more violent suppression of the movement." Speaking at a Center for American Progress event last Monday, Hadi Ghaemi, director of the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, said that Iran is currently facing a "very serious human rights crisis," with the regime continuing its campaign of arrests, detention, and harassment of family members. On Monday, "nearly three weeks after his arrest and subsequent solitary confinement in Tehran's notorious Evin prison," Ayatollah Mohammad Taqi Khalaji, the father of Washington Iran scholar Mehdi Khalaji, was released on bail.

THE STALLED NUCLEAR DEAL: There was initial optimism over the possibility of a deal at Geneva in October, in which Iran would ship its low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia to be further enriched into fuel for Iran's research reactor in Tehran. In the subsequent months, however, it has become clear that the Iranian regime may be too divided to come to a consensus over such a deal. In a potentially significant shift, on Tuesday, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- who is known to be a key regime advocate of such a deal -- told Iranian State Television, "We [Iran] have no problem sending our enriched uranium abroad." Ahmadinejad did not make clear, however, whether Iran would agree to ship out the LEU in one shipment, as called for in the Geneva deal, or in batches, as Iran has indicated it would prefer. Ahmadinejad also said that Iran's uranium "would only he held for four or five months," and not the full year that "Western officials say it would take for Iran's enriched fuel to be turned into fuel rods for the reactor." Mousavi had strongly criticized the Geneva deal and remains a strong supporter of Iran's nuclear program. In his first interview with international media in April 2009, the Financial Times quoted Mousavi as saying that "no one in Iran will accept suspension" of uranium enrichment, which many Iranians believe is their right.

SLOUCHING TOWARD MORE SANCTIONS:  Last Thursday, the U.S. Senate passed a package of new sanctions, including ones on foreign companies that do business with Iran in refined petroleum products. Supporters of the bill have suggested that these sanctions will effectively pressure the current Iranian government to change its behavior with regard to its nuclear program. Many experts are skeptical of the ability of sanctions -- especially sanctions that target the Iranian population -- to have a positive effect. Speaking at an event at the conservative-leaning Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP), Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations called sanctions "a fall-back policy for the United States often when the situation becomes complicated," and said he was "not comfortable with the idea of sanctions as a solution to the Iran problem." WINEP Iran expert Patrick Clawson said there were already a number of sanctions effectively slowing Iran's nuclear development, and that he "would not adopt a sanction on gasoline imports into Iran unless we are prepared to sink Venezuelan ships carrying that gasoline...because it's going to make [us] look impotent." The Obama administration has indicated its preference for sanctions that target Iranian regime figures and economic interests, and not the population. Today, China indicated that it would not support further sanctions at this time. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said in France, "This talk of sanctions at this moment will complicate the situation and stand in the way of finding a diplomatic solution" to Tehran's nuclear program.

HOW SHOULD THE U.S. REACT?: Some Iran analysts such as Flynt Leverett and Hillary Mann Leverett have suggested that, despite the sizable demonstrations in Iran's cities, the Green movement does not represent the majority of Iranians, most of whom do not see the current government as illegitimate. Other commentators such as Robert Kagan and Richard Hass have lately called for the administration to drop its engagement with the Iranian government altogether and focus on supporting the opposition to create regime change in Iran, though neither have described what the mechanics of such regime change would look like. Others have suggested that the administration should chart a middle course, continuing to apply pressure on the nuclear issue, but increasing focus on human rights because the latter is more transparent. Unlike the nuclear issue, where key facts are in dispute, human rights is a much more straightforward issue. "It's clear they've tortured and killed people since June," said Geneive Abdo, a fellow at the Century Foundation and director of InsideIran. "There's too much documentation" to ignore it, and "Iran has always been sensitive to its human rights record," she added. An official U.S.-led U.N. investigation into Iran's human rights abuses would "bring out the crimes," said Ghaemi, and "put the government on the defensive." Mike Signer of the Progressive Policy Institute believes that now is a "good time for the administration to construct a positive doctrine," exploring ways to engage with Iran while at the same time creating space for pro-democracy forces. Signer said that simply "bearing witness is not the right long-term position for the United States."
 

Under the Radar

HEALTH CARE -- NONPARTISAN REPORT FINDS HISTORIC RISE IN HEALTH CARE COSTS: According to a report from the nonpartisan Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services released Wednesday, health care spending in the U.S. grew to 17.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and did so despite the global recession. Moreover, the growth in the health care sector's share of the economy in 2009 outpaced 2008 by 1.1 percent, the largest one-year increase since 1960. The report also indicated a marked uptick in government spending on health care -- nearly 10 percent for Medicaid and over 8 percent for Medicare -- pointing to the "financial cost of the so-called Great Recession and the growing pressure it is putting on state and local governments." Furthermore, up to one third of health care delivered in the U.S. does not benefit patients. Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, cited the report as urgent evidence for passing health care reform. "[T]hese projections do reinforce the need to enact comprehensive health reform, like the legislation passed by both chambers, that lowers costs for individuals and businesses and improves coverage." "[Health-care reform] encourages providers to deliver high-quality, rather than high-volume, care," said Karen Davenport, the director for health policy at the Center For American Progress. "The underlying trends in our health care system will not change without these reforms." Indeed, a recent Commonwealth Fund report finds that the health care reform measures before Congress "would save $683 billion or more in national health spending over the 10-year period 2010-2019...and lower premiums by nearly $2,000 per family." Health care costs are projected to swell to as high as 34 percent of GDP without health care reform.

Think Fast

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Republicans are stepping up their campaign to win donations from Wall Street," following the industry's increasing turn against the Democratic Party. House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) reportedly met with J.P. Morgan chief and Democratic ally James Dimon last week to try to persuade him to support his party.

Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) is "preparing a series of gun rights amendments that he intends to offer to must-pass Senate bills this year, hoping to force Democrats to take tough votes and draw clear distinctions between the two parties heading into the midterms." "We'll see gun amendments if we see appropriations bills," Coburn said.

President Bush briefly "considered -- and rejected -- a military response to Russia's 2008 invasion of Georgia," according to a new history of the conflict. Bush's national security aides outlined possible responses, including "surgical strikes," but rejected them as "too risky."

Some prominent Republicans will soon be launching "a center-right version of the Center for American Progress." Former Minnesota senator Norm Coleman and former McCain adviser Douglas Holtz-Eakin are leading the effort, while Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), former Florida governor Jeb Bush, and former Bush adviser Ed Gillespie are also involved. "Let them have at it," said CAP President and CEO John Podesta, "and we'll be happy to debate them."

"The Obama administration is aggressively pushing back against Republican criticism of its handling of terrorism suspect Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab." Attorney General Eric Holder sent a letter yesterday "to Senate Republicans in which he said the legal decisions in the Abdulmutallab case were consistent with the strategy used during George W. Bush's administration."

Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood said yesterday that his agency is "widening its probe" of accelerator issues in Toyota vehicles "to look at the possibility of electromagnetic interference" with the cars' throttles. He also said he "wants to talk directly" with the company's CEO.

State Farm Florida announced that it will cancel "the policies of 125,000 of its most vulnerable customers beginning Aug. 1, halfway through the 2010 hurricane season." A spokesman for the company told the press the "decision was the direct result of its failure to win a 47.1 percent rate increase from state regulators."

And finally: Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) says he's "all for full disclosure," but he has turned down Cosmopolitan invitation to show the "full monty" in the magazine.
 

Blog Watch

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Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) slams mythical liberal extremists.

The Obama administration got it right with Abdulmutallab.

Why can't the majority govern? Blame the Internet.

Deficit peacock Newt Gingrich can't recognize his own feathers.

Tax breaks for big corporations mean higher taxes for the rest of us.

Let's help Haiti by canceling its debt.

Jon Stewart to Bill O'Reilly: Fox turns "reasonable concerns" into a "panic attack about the next coming of Chairman Mao."
 

Daily Grill

"George Bush...did not play golf while this country was at war."
-- Fox News' Sean Hannity, 2/03/10

VERSUS

"Now watch this drive."
-- President Bush, 9/04/02, playing golf