International Relations -- Cracks In The Iranian Regime

June 22, 2009

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, Ryan Powers, and Nate Carlile

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Cracks In The Iranian Regime

After a week of protests in which millions of Iranians took to the streets to object to the results of the country's June 12 presidential election, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared on Friday that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won the election and warned opposition leaders -- led by presidential challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi -- to end the protests. After dismissing allegations of voter fraud, Khamenei added, "If the political elite ignore the law -- whether they want it or not -- they would be responsible for the bloodshed and chaos." Despite the warnings, thousands of Iranians came out again on Saturday but met fierce resistance from security forces -- including the widely-feared Basij militia -- who "blocked streets" and used tear gas, water cannons, batons, and guns to prevent the demonstrations. Mousavi is continuing to defy the regime's leaders by supporting continued protests. "The country belongs to you. ... Protesting lies and fraud is your right," he said. Mousavi, who has claimed victory in the election, rejected the authoritative Guardian Council's offer last week to conduct a partial recount of 10 percent of the ballot, instead calling for the election to be annulled. In new developments, Iran's English-language state-run media outlet Press TV reported last night that the Council admitted that "the number of votes collected in 50 cities surpass the number of people eligible to cast ballot in those areas." However, "authorities insisted that discrepancies, which could affect three million votes, did not violate Iranian law and...it was not clear whether they would decisively change the election result."

CLERICAL RIFT: In the "clearest sign yet of a splintering among the ayatollahs," state media announced yesterday that police arrested relatives of former president Hashemi Rafsanjani, "including his daughter Faezeh, a 46-year-old reformist politician vilified by hard-liners for her open support of Mousavi." They were later released after being held for several hours. But Rafsanjani, who openly supported Mousavi in the run-up to the election, heads the cleric-run Assembly of Experts, which has oversight authority of the Supreme Leader and can theoretically remove him from power. "That is a major escalation and ratchets up the conflict with Rafsanjani," said Michael Wahid Hanna, a Century Foundation regional affairs analyst, adding, "It really raises the stakes." Moreover, the AP reports that "some lower-ranking clergy also appeared to have broken with the supreme leader," as photos "posted by a moderate conservative news Web site showed what appeared to be mullahs in brown robes and white turbans protesting alongside a crowd of young men, some wearing the green shirts or sashes symbolizing Mousavi's self-described 'Green Wave' movement." The Huffington Post is reporting that Rafsanjani has a letter signed by nearly half of the 86-member Assembly of Experts "calling for the annulment" of the election. Mousavi himself has reportedly said that he is "ready for martyrdom," but also suggested that changing the political system in Iran is not his intention. "We are not against the Islamic system and its laws but against lies and deviations and just want to reform it," he said. However, Mohsen Makhmalbaf, who claims to speak for Mousavi, criticized the Iranian "dictatorship." "Since the 1979 revolution Iran has had 80% dictatorship and 20% democracy. We have dictatorship because one person is in charge, the Supreme Leader," he said, adding, "Although power would remain in the hands of Khamenei, a president like Mousavi could weaken the Supreme Leader."

WIDESPREAD CRACKDOWN: Makhmalbaf also said that "all those close to Mousavi have been arrested, and his contact with the outside world has been restricted." There has also been a widespread media crackdown. According to the media advocacy group Reporters Without Borders, today Iran is now the "world's biggest prison for journalists" with "a total of 33 journalists and cyber-dissidents in its jails." Foreign news outlets have said they "were ordered by the authorities not to report on events on the streets." Authorities have also ordered the BBC's longtime Tehran correspondent out of the country and a Canadian reporter for Newsweek, Maziar Bahari, has been arrested without charges. An Iranian photojournalist who works for Life magazine, and has photographed extraordinary images from the protests, is also "missing." Nearly 500 protesters "were arrested in clashes between demonstrators and security forces in Tehran that took place late Saturday." Today, Iran's Revolutionary Guard "is threatening to crush any further opposition protests," warning "demonstrators to prepare for a 'revolutionary confrontation' if they take to the streets again." Republicans have attacked President Obama for not doing enough to intervene, criticism that other conservative commentators have called "foolish." But Saturday, Obama called "on the Iranian government to stop all violent and unjust actions against its own people" and that "suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away."

'YOU DIDN'T DIE IN VAIN': Despite the media crackdown, Iranians have used the Internet, particularly YouTube and social networking sites such as Twitter and Facebook, to organize and share information. Many extraordinary videos of protests have surfaced from the ground in Iran, but one in particular (warning: very graphic) has become a rallying cry for the Iranian opposition. A "gruesomely captivating" video emerged over the weekend showing a young woman, Neda, collapsing on the street after an apparent gunshot wound to the chest allegedly by a Basij militiaman. As Neda's blood pours out onto the street just before she dies, a man reportedly cries out in Farsi, "My Neda, don't be afraid, please don't go, please don't go, please stay." While violence in the country has claimed at least 17 lives, Neda "is already being hailed as a martyr." Mehdi Karoubi, another reformist presidential candidate, called Neda a "martyr" who "did not have a weapon in her soft hands or a grenade in her pocket but became a victim by thugs who are supported by a horrifying security apparatus." Time magazine reports that "[t]ributes that incorporate startlingly upclose footage of her dying have started to spring up on YouTube." "RIP NEDA, The World cries seeing your last breath, you didn't die in vain. We remember you," read a Twitter post from a man claiming to be from Nashville, TN.

CIVIL RIGHTS -- OBAMA ADMINISTRATION TO MEET WITH GAY RIGHTS GROUPS: After reportedly refusing to meet with LGBT legal groups to discuss how to move forward on cases involving the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA), the Justice Department reached out on Friday "to major gay rights organizations and scheduled a private meeting...in an apparent effort to smooth over tensions." The Justice Department reversed its decision after controversy arose because of the Obama administration's legal brief filed in the DOMA case, which was initially criticized by gay rights activists such as the Human Right Campaign's Joe Solmonese. On the same day, Center for American Progress President and CEO John Podesta moderated a panel at the American Constitution Society convention that included Lisa Brown, the White House staff secretary. Podesta asked the panelists about the concern that President Obama is not doing enough on gay rights. Brown responded that the DOMA brief was "an awful lot better than the brief that was written in the Bush administration," though there was "no question, personal statement, that there were some cites in there that should not have been in there." Brown's comments and the DOJ meeting are the most recent gestures from the Obama administration toward the LGBT community. Last week, the President signed a memorandum that, among other things, gives same-sex domestic partners of some federal employees access to long-term-care health care benefits; the White House said it was seeking ways to include same-sex marriages, unions, and partnerships in 2010 Census data; and the administration announced that gay couples traveling overseas can now show passports that feature their married names. The litany of action, said the Washington Monthly's Steve Benen, seems to indicate that "criticism from the gay rights community has clearly gotten the administration's attention, and officials are concerned enough to act."

Politico reports that Republican senators are disappointed that Judge Sonia Sotomayor "isn't serving as the political lightning rod some in their party had hoped she would be." Sen. John Thune (R-SD) said, "She doesn't have the punch out there in terms of fundraising and recruiting, I think -- at least so far."

According to the latest NYT/CBS poll, 72 percent of Americans support creating a public health insurance option, and 57 percent are willing to pay higher taxes to cover all Americans. "Half of those questioned said they thought government would be better at providing medical coverage than private insurers, up from 30 percent in polls conducted in 2007."

Gen. Stanley McChrystal, the new U.S. commander in Afghanistan, said over the weekend that "he would sharply restrict the use of air strikes...in an effort to reduce the civilian deaths that he said were undermining the American-led mission." McChrystal said he would only allow their use in firefights with the Taliban to "prevent American and other coalition troops from being overrun."

Welfare rolls "are climbing across the country for the first time since President Bill Clinton signed" reform legislation. According to a WSJ/National Conference of State Legislatures survey, 23 of the 30 largest states, "which account for more than 88% of the nation's total population, see welfare caseloads above year-ago levels." The biggest increases are in states with some of the worst jobless rates.

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin Peterson (D-MN) -- who denies that climate change will impact agriculture -- wants House Democrats to "soften" the Waxman-Markey clean energy legislation's impact on "coal-burning power plants," "scale back existing regulation of ethanol," and make other changes that could "steer huge sums of money to farmers."

Since admitting to an extramarital affair with a former aide, Sen. John Ensign's (R-NV) approval ratings have plummeted to 39 percent, "a drop of 14 percentage points from a month ago." Additionally, the percentage "who regarded Ensign unfavorably, 37 percent, was up 19 points from a month ago, when just 18 percent viewed him negatively."

In an interview with CBS, President Obama defended his administration's proposal to give the Fed new powers to oversee systemic risks to the economy. Obama said he wants an overseer that "is accountable and clear when it comes to these large systemic firms that could potentially bring down the entire financial system. The Fed has the expertise and the credibility I think to do it."

California lawmakers are focused on closing a $24 billion gap in the state budget. "While Democrats struggle to preserve programs for the state's neediest residents," Republicans are trying to "force large cuts that will have an effect on policies like health care for children in poor families and the early release of thousands of prisoners."

And finally: The White House tennis court is currently being refashioned into a basketball court for President Obama, who plans to take advantage of the new facilities to "summon the Cleveland Cavaliers' LeBron James and possibly other NBA stars to the White House to shoot some hoops." When asked by Bloomberg News whether he would be joining the game, Obama replied, "Of course. It's my court."

The Congressional Budge Office (CBO) finds that House climate legislation costs only a postage stamp a day.

Ryan Avent asks how long conservatives will "continue to use the bogus $1,600 cost per household per year figure they've been touting" now that the CBO has produced new numbers.

Conservatives complaining about Obama's ice cream outing with his daughters forget President Bush's birthday cake and guitar strumming during Hurricane Katrina.

George Will calls right-wing attacks on Obama over Iran "foolish criticism."

Yglesias rethinks interwar foreign policy.

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) argues that climate change is America's greatest long-term security threat.

Steve Benen thinks a new poll showing support for heath care reform may "stiffen soft spines" in Congress.

According to Ezra Klein, the American Medical Association says the "right things on food."

"I get hotheaded from time to time, so I just want to let folks know that in the last segment, I went a little strong in my response to the president's comment, and I don't want to go there."
-- RNC chairman Michael Steele, 6/19/09, on calling President Obama a "liar"

VERSUS

CALLER: Well I've been listening to you, and earlier you called the president a liar, and I said, Yeah, he's finally got there! He's finally decided to tell them how it is! And then you apologized.
STEELE: No I didn't apologize!
-- Steele, 6/19/09

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Cracks In The Iranian Regime

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