Afghanistan -- Look Before You Leap

February 13, 2009

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, Ryan Powers, and Matt Duss

AFGHANISTAN

Look Before You Leap

President Obama has inherited a crisis in Afghanistan. "Large parts of the country, perhaps 70% of Afghan territory, are no-go areas for security forces and government officials. ... Narcotics production has coalesced into enormous tracts of poppy in Taliban-controlled areas, heroin production has spiked, government legitimacy is collapsing, food and water are critically short, the insurgency is spreading and intensifying," observed the blog Small Wars Journal. On Wednesday, suicide bombers and Taliban gunmen struck government buildings at three sites in Kabul, "killing at least 20 people and wounding 57." Security forces remained on high alert Thursday, "not only in preparation for the arrival of the envoy, Richard Holbrooke, President Obama's special envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, but also because a Taliban spokesman claimed eight bombers remained at large in the city and were still 'looking for a chance.'" On Feb. 5, Defense Secretary Robert Gates announced a delay in the expected deployment of 17,000 additional troops "until after the Obama administration concludes its ongoing review of the strategy for Afghanistan." It is imperative that this interim be used to define and focus on America's key interests in the nearly eight-year U.S.-led intervention in that country.

WHAT IS THE MISSION?: In the years since a U.S.-led NATO force entered in October 2001 in order to disrupt and destroy the Taliban-hosted Al Qaeda terrorist network that had launched attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, the Taliban insurgency has slowly but steadily regained steam. Violence is up 543 percent since 2005, according to counterinsurgency expert David Kilcullen. This is in large part the result of the Bush administration's decision to refocus attention and resources away from Afghanistan and toward Iraq in 2003. In testimony on Jan. 27, Gates said, "There is little doubt that our greatest military challenge right now is Afghanistan," but also that the U.S. must set "realistic and limited" expectations there. Several months after the ouster of the Taliban -- and several months after then-Sen. Joseph Biden proposed a plan along the same lines -- President Bush promised a Marshall Plan for Afghanistan. "Half a decade later, that vow remains unmet." While the Bush administration originally trumpeted its goal of a modern Afghan democracy, the current crisis suggests that the more realistic goal is simply one of a functioning state that neither provides a safe haven for terrorists, nor terrorizes its own people. Speaking of the recent attacks in Kabul, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said it "hardens our resolve to get the next steps in Afghanistan right." He added that it was it "imperative that we get the review process done correctly."

LOSING THE POPULATION: A recent poll showed that "only eighteen percent of Afghans think the U.S. decision to send more troops to the country is a good idea; forty-four percent want fewer troops." Many Afghans believe "that U.S. military action has not and will not improve the security of Afghan civilians. The Taliban remain unpopular -- more unpopular than the United States -- but the gap is closing, and larger numbers of Afghans now see the Taliban as 'more moderate' than in the past." Civilian casualties caused by NATO air strikes, another consequence of the lack of troops on the ground, "were described as unacceptable by almost eighty per cent of those surveyed." Many Afghans also see their own corrupt government as even more predatory than the Taliban. According to Sarah Chayes, a former journalist who for the last seven years has helped run an economic collective in Kandahar, every citizen interaction with the Afghan government "involves some form of shakedown." Official corruption is so bad, Chayes said, that many women in her collective have told her that they would prefer living under the Taliban. Delivering a threat assessment on Feb. 12, Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair concurred with this view, stating that corruption in Kabul and throughout the country had bolstered support for the Taliban and warlords.

AN AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN SOLUTION: It is appropriate that Holbrooke's portfolio includes both Afghanistan and Pakistan, as the situation in the former cannot be understood without regard to the equally serious challenges in the latter. DNI Blair stated in his assessment that "no improvement in Afghanistan is possible without Pakistan taking control of its border areas and improving governance. The lawless zones of instability in Pakistan's tribal belts are used as sanctuaries to undermine stability in Afghanistan. It is also important to recognize that actions in Afghanistan also have an impact on Pakistan, a country with nuclear weapons and a population more than five times greater than Afghanistan. U.S. missile strikes on suspected Al Qaeda hideouts in Pakistan, which often incur civilian casualties, have a highly negative effect on Pakistani public opinion toward their government's cooperation with the U.S. Pakistani officials have told Holbrooke "that the Obama administration should reconsider" these strikes, calling them “counterproductive." Al Qaeda's No. 2 leader, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has said he wants to destabilize the "apostate" Pakistani government. As in Afghanistan, whatever value these missile strikes may have in destroying Al Qaeda's leadership may, in the long run, be outweighed by the rage they incurred against the U.S. and its allies.

MEDIA -- ECONOMISTS COMPRISE ONLY 5 PERCENT OF CABLE NEWS GUESTS DEBATING ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN: The Progress Report has reported that appearances from congressional Republicans have far outnumbered those of their Democratic colleagues in the cable news debate over the economic recovery bill on cable television news. In a new report, Media Matters adds that economists have been largely absent from the debate on 12 cable programs and the Sunday shows. Reviewing 139 1/2 hours of programming between Jan. 25 and Feb. 8, the progressive media watchdog organization found that "of 460 total guest appearances in discussions about the economic recovery legislation and debate in Congress, only 25 were made by economists -- a mere 5 percent." The findings appear consistent with a recent observation by Crooks and Liars blogger John Amato: "I'm sure you've heard about the hundreds of economists that are either for or against President Obama's stimulus plan. My question to the media is: Where are they?" Responding to the Media Matters report, the Center for American Progress Action Fund's Matt Yglesias noted, "[I]t's been striking to me watching things how often you'll have what amounted to an anchor talking to a political reporter about a substantive policy question neither of them understood."

ECONOMY -- BIG BUSINESS TAX GIVEAWAYS SNUCK INTO ECONOMIC RECOVERY PACKAGE: As a result of a last minute change to the stimulus bill yesterday, a $67.5 billion pro-business tax break, known as net operating loss tax breaks, was added back into the compromise recovery bill, in an apparent attempt to gain Republican support. This change expands the scope of tax cuts for business in the recovery package by letting "companies of any size amend up to five years of tax returns to deduct net operating losses." The tax cuts were originally struck from the stimulus bill because they are inherently non-stimulative. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office determines that the tax breaks "do not improve the provision's effectiveness as stimulus" and "do little to make new domestic investment more attractive to firms." The tax breaks were a top priority for the National Association of Manufacturers because they allow companies to "convert losses into tax refunds" -- which translates into rewarding businesses for failing. Michael Ettlinger of the Center for American Progress called this provision "misguided" and a "classic example of throwing money at a problem and hoping something good happens."

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS -- 95 PERCENT OF INTERNATIONAL SCHOLARS SAY AMERICA IS 'LESS RESPECTED' AROUND THE WORLD: A new study released by the Institute for the Theory and Practice of International Relations (TRIP) finds that 95 percent of international relations scholars believe that the United States is "less respected abroad compared to the past." The annual study also found that nearly three quarters of those surveyed believe the United States' decreased moral standing in the world is a problem. This view by international relations scholars mirrors that of the American people. In September 2008, "a survey by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs showed that the No. 1 foreign-policy priority for Americans was improving the country's standing in the world." President Obama, who in his acceptance speech for Democratic nomination told "all those watching tonight from beyond our shores" that "a new dawn of American leadership is at hand," has already begun shifting U.S. policy in a new direction. Soon after being sworn in, Obama moved to end the use of torture in America and to close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay. In January, Obama signaled a new direction with the Muslim world by granting his first formal interview in office to Dubai-based Al-Arabiya television.

Director of National Intelligence Dennis C. Blair told Congress yesterday that America's "primary near-term security concern" is no longer terrorism, but rather the global financial crisis and the turmoil it could ignite. "The longer it takes for the recovery to begin, the greater the likelihood of serious damage to U.S. strategic interests," he said.

Politico reports that "House Republicans are banding together once again and leaders now expect to lose at most 8 members on the final stimulus bill, after losing 0 the first time. Just two days ago, leaders had feared 20 or more defections."

The compromise stimulus bill is too small, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com. "At $789 billion, the final package 'is just not going to pack the same jobs punch' as some earlier versions." Zandi estimates the compromise will create only about 2.2 million jobs by the end of 2010, "leaving unemployment hovering around 10 percent” and possibly leading lawmakers to undertake another stimulus.

"A record 1 in 9 U.S. homes are vacant, a glut created by the housing boom and subsequent collapse," USA Today reports. "The numbers are further documentation of the gravity of the housing problem," says Nicolas Retsinas, head of Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies. "This inventory is delaying any kind of housing recovery.”

The National Journal writes that two key Washington, D.C. think tanks are trading places. "The Center for American Progress is in ascendancy," while the American Enterprise Institute -- the home of neoconservatism -- finds itself in the political wilderness. CAP has "become an unusual hybrid of scholarship and activism -- and a political juggernaut."

Economists and financial experts say that some of the nation's large banks are "like dead men walking" due to insolvency. "A sober assessment of the growing mountain of losses from bad bets, measured in today’s marketplace, would overwhelm the value of the banks' assets," according to the experts.

Maj. Gen. Michael Oates, the U.S. commander overseeing most of southern Iraq, said yesterday that "recent security gains there are permanent -- and that some of his troops are openly wondering why they're still there, even though he believes their presence remains crucial." The region is seeing two attacks per day on U.S. soldiers, "a 90% reduction compared with the worst periods" of the war.

The Senate confirmed Leon Panetta as the Director of CIA last night in a voice vote. Last week, Panetta told the Senate that "the Obama administration would not prosecute CIA officers who participated in harsh interrogations even if they constituted torture as long as they did not go beyond their instructions."

And finally: The tiny endangered salt marsh harvest mouse has unfortunately been getting a bad rap over the past few days, becoming a symbol of wasteful pork-barrel spending. Conservatives have been blasting the economic recovery package, claiming that it contains $30 million to fund a project devoted to saving the little critter. But as the Mercury News reports, this right-wing claim -- like so many others -- isn't true. The $30 million isn't in the bill; it's "the total amount that the California Coastal Conservancy, a state agency, recommended more than a month ago" for five major ongoing wetlands restoration projects that would benefit various endangered species including...the mouse.

Wanda Sykes, am openly-gay and African-American comedian, will headline the annual White House Correspondents Association Dinner this spring.

THINK PROGRESS: Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) wthdraws nomination as Secretary of Commerce.

WONK ROOM: Without an economic recovery plan, America would lose more than $8,800 in potential GDP per person.

YGLESIAS: Progressive House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) saves school renovation funds.

MICHAEL CALDERONE: Wall Street Journal editorial falsely claims that President Bush didn't pre-select journalists at his press conferences.

FLORIDA: Gov. Charlie Crist (R) comes under attack from conservatives for supporting the recovery package.

ARIZONA: State schools chief recommends cutting more than $30 million in funding to teach English to students who aren't fluent.

MICHIGAN: "Gov. Jennifer Granholm laid out the toughest budget plan of her seven years in office Thursday, calling for 1,500 state employee layoffs."

"The payoff is that support for the stimulus bill is falling."
-- Karl Rove, 2/12/09

VERSUS

"Public support for an $800 billion economic stimulus package has increased to 59% in a USA Today/Gallup poll conducted Tuesday night, up from 52% in Gallup polling a week ago, as well as in late January."
-- Gallup, 2/11/09

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