Pakistan: A Partnership for Progress

November 21, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, Ryan Powers, and Matt Duss

NATIONAL SECURITY

Pakistan: A Partnership for Progress

Pakistan will certainly pose one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for the incoming Obama administration. A new report by the Center for American Progress states that Pakistan "lies at the nexus of one the world's most complicated geopolitical regions -- one plagued by poverty, nuclear proliferation, and global terrorism. With a growing population of more than 165 million people, Pakistan is a vital link between South and Central Asia and the broader Middle East." With Osama bin Laden and other top Al Qaeda leaders believed to be hiding in Pakistan's Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), the significance of the U.S.-Pakistan relationship for American national security could not be clearer. "U.S. intelligence agencies have repeatedly issued warnings that some of these groups are using safe havens in Pakistan to facilitate and plan attacks around the world,"the report notes. But an effective Pakistan policy must recognize that the country's problems are comprised of more than just rising Islamic militancy. The report, co-authored by Caroline Wadhams, Brian Katulis, Lawrence Korb, and Colin Cookman, identifies three key challenges to Pakistan's stability -- the threat of militant groups, an economic crisis, and weak governance -- and proposes strategies for addressing them.

PURSUING AN ILLUSION OF STABILITY: The militant threat emanating from Pakistan is real and growing. The report notes that "a strengthening, multi-headed adaptive network of extremists comprised of the Taliban, Al Qaeda, and affiliated indigenous militant groups is escalating deadly attacks within Pakistan and Afghanistan." Recently, "a rise in Taliban attacks along a vital supply route" into Afghanistan from Pakistan has threatened the U.S.-led NATO effort there. Writing for the Middle East Bulletin, Sen. Robert Casey (D-PA) emphasized that the U.S. needs to learn the right lessons from Iraq and apply them to what is a "fundamentally different situation" in Pakistan. "One key principle--and one reason for the decrease in violence in Iraq--is the recognition that the United States needs to have an integrated strategy that uses all components of power," writes Casey. For decades, however, "U.S. policy has pursued short-term stability in Pakistan at all costs, utilizing a self-defeating strategy of almost exclusive support to Pakistan's military establishment and individual leaders." After 9/11, the Bush administration drew closer to the military regime of General Pervez Musharraf, turning a blind eye to his undemocratic rule in the hopes that Musharraf would act as a dependable ally in America's newly declared "war on terror." Now, "for the first time in almost a decade, the United States and the world have partners in a democratically elected government of Pakistan." "As a result, the current government...has a greater potential for representing and mobilizing Pakistan's population toward fighting militancy and strengthening its governmental institutions than the military dictatorship that preceded it." The report stresses that "military operations alone will not defeat Pakistan's militant groups." Different groups will require different strategies, "including strengthening governance and rule of law, creating economic opportunities, and exploring political negotiations."

AN ECONOMIC CRISIS: With much of the U.S. media focused on the terrorist threat emanating from Pakistan's border areas, too little attention has been paid to an equally threatening development: Pakistan's growing economic crisis. "Pakistan's economy is in free-fall," the report states. "Inflation is at 25 percent, causing dramatic food price spikes and hitting Pakistan's poor the hardest. Pakistan's government faces mounting fiscal and trade deficits, and Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves have fallen to $6.9 billion, enough to pay for only an estimated nine weeks of imports." It appears that the United States and the international community are beginning to recognize the severity of the crisis. On Nov. 18, the Friends of Pakistan group, which includes the U.S., Saudi Arabia, China, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, the United Nations, the European Union and others, met for the second time in Abu Dhabi to discuss ways to assist Pakistan economically. Additionally, CAP's report proposes "creating a comprehensive inter-agency development strategy that focuses on Pakistan's education and vocational skills training, health care quality and access, the energy sector, and water shortages." The report also proposes "an economic donors' summit with key regional investors to facilitate increased trade between Pakistan, its neighbors and other key countries."

WEAK GOVERNANCE: Ineffective governance is at the heart of the problems facing Pakistan. The country's civilian government "remains weak following years of military rule, underinvestment in Pakistan's governmental institutions, and dysfunctional political leadership. ... A dangerous disconnect exists between the needs of the Pakistani people and the ability or inclination of their leaders to provide for them." CAP's report emphasizes the importance of utilizing all elements of U.S. power, including diplomacy and development to engage more deeply on these three sources of instability. It also advocates a coordinated, international response, arguing that the United States has not sufficiently leveraged the resources and influence of other key countries such as China and Saudi Arabia. The United States must "recognize the limitations of direct U.S. influence in Pakistan and continue moving toward a multilateral approach, with Pakistan as a full partner." An inclusive and broad-based approach is essential for dealing with the challenges Pakistan faces. "Even if Osama bin Laden were captured tomorrow in Pakistan, challenges to its stability and the region's would remain. Making this strategic shift may finally assist Pakistan in confronting its biggest challenges of insecurity, failed governance, and economic difficulties," the report states.

MILITARY -- MORE U.S. SOLDIERS SEEKING SUBSTANCE ABUSE HELP, BUT COUNSELING PROGRAMS REMAIN UNDERSTAFFED: According to Army records, "The number of soldiers seeking help for substance abuse has climbed 25% in the past five years, but the Army's counseling program has remained significantly understaffed and struggling to meet the demand." Though the Army requires one drug counselor for every 2,000 soldiers, it is currently operating with one for every 3,100 soldiers, according to a report in USA Today, "a chronic shortage exacerbated by the increase in substance abuse cases." Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) asked for a review of the army's substance abuse program after her staff heard allegations that more than 150 troops in Fort Leonard Wood, MO were denied counseling because of a staff shortage. "How is it that a program can so deteriorate at a time when drug use and alcohol abuse is known to be closely tied to PTSD, suicides, criminal behavior, divorce and domestic abuse, all of which have substantially increased in recent years in the Army?" asked McCaskill.

ETHICS -- CONGRESS GIVES CONVICTED FELON STEVENS STANDING OVATION: In violation of the Senate's rule against "demonstrations of approval," the Senate paid tribute to convicted felon Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) with a 60-second standing ovation, followed by hours of tribute speeches on the floor. In his last speech before the chamber, Stevens -- who was voted out of office -- said that he looked forward to "the day when I can remove the cloud that currently surrounds me." There were few other mentions of Stevens' criminal convictions for making false statements and failing to disclose $250,000 worth of free gifts he received. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) praised his "distinguished colleague," and said that public service has been Stevens' "life calling." Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), who had previously called for Stevens' resignation, touted Stevens' "extraordinary accomplishments." Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) may have been the most effusive: "I have found Ted Stevens to be the most straightforward, honest senator that I have ever dealt with." Bunning said Stevens had given him "the principles" by which he "and every one of us here on the the Senate floor should demonstrate daily." Center for American Progress Action Fund Senior Editor Matthew Yglesias called the spectacle "shocking," and said it would "be nice to see one of these guys show some concern for, say, a non-violent drug offender sitting in jail somewhere."

ENVIRONMENT -- WHITE HOUSE SAYS ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT 'DOESN'T HELP SUPPORT ANY SPECIES, INCLUDING OUR OWN': The AP reported yesterday that the Bush administration is attempting to weaken the Endangered Species Act (ESA) with a last minute regulatory change that would "eliminate the input of federal wildlife scientists in some endangered species cases, [by allowing] the federal agency in charge of building, authorizing or funding a project to determine for itself whether a project would be likely to harm endangered wildlife and plants." At yesterday's White House press conference, a reporter asked if the AP had accurately described the proposed regulatory change. White House Press Secretary Dana Perino responded: "[T]he Endangered Species Act is a tangled web that doesn't actually help support any species, including our own." Perino's wholesale dismissal of the ESA could not be more inaccurate. But more disturbing is how widespread the last-minute assault on the federal government's environmental regulatory structure has become. The White House's other last minute initiatives include: eliminating environmental reviews of fishing regulations, allowing more emissions from power plants by weakening the Clean Air Act, and opening protected wilderness areas to energy development.

President-elect Obama will reportedly nominate Hillary Clinton as his secretary of state after Thanksgiving and may tap ret. Gen. Jim Jones as his National Security Adviser. Obama is “getting foreign policy advice from an unlikely source: Republican Brent Scowcroft, who was national security adviser in the first Bush administration.”

Obama will not immediately move to repeal the U.S. military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy, which bans openly gay individuals from serving. Obama reportedly "first wants to confer with the Joint Chiefs of Staff and his new political appointees at the Pentagon to reach a consensus and then present legislation to Congress."

Attorney General Michael Mukasey collapsed last night while speaking at the Federalist Society's annual gathering. Mukasey, who spent the night in the hospital for observation, is alert and "in good spirits," according to a Justice Department spokesperson. An individual who witnessed Mukasey's collapse said he was "visibly shaking and perhaps slurring his words before he fell to the floor."

Big Oil is "firing up" its efforts to push for more domestic oil development. The American Petroleum Institute is "preparing a multimillion-dollar campaign" that will include an education program called American’s Energy Forum and "a wide array of advertising and lobbying efforts on Capitol Hill."

The Bush administration is finalizing changes to the Endangered Species Act ensuring that agencies would not have to take global warming into account when assessing risks to plants and animals. John Kostyak of the National Wildlife Federation said the rule, for example, would "block federal officials from considering a carbon cap" to preserve polar bear's habitat.

A new report by the National Intelligence Council finds that U.S. military, economic, and political dominance will fade over the next few decades. It predicts that China, India, and Russia will increasingly gain influence, "the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict."

Verizon Wireless said last night that a number of its employees have "accessed and viewed" Obama's personal cellphone account without authorization. The company refused to say how many employees accessed the information, but said that all of them "were immediately put on leave with pay" and are now facing potential disciplinary proceedings.

Nobel-prize-winning economist Paul Krugman notes a "disturbing parallel" between 2008 and 1929: "the emergence of a power vacuum at the height of the crisis." With a "standoff" between Congress and the lame-duck administration, Krugman writes, "nothing is happening on the policy front that is remotely commensurate with the scale of the economic crisis. And it’s scary to think how much more can go wrong before Inauguration Day."

And finally: This week, Gov. Sarah Palin (R-AK) took part in the political tradition of pardoning a Thanksgiving turkey. Palin then gave a press conference at Triple D Farms in Wasilla. However, as she spoke, "just a few feet behind her, one of the men working on the farm proceeded to feed a turkey into a bucket. The man stops periodically to watch the state's governor speak, all the while the poor turkey jerks around as the machine does it's gruesome work." Watch it here.

Despite his initial opposition, President Bush signed into law today a "bill that Congress approved to keep unemployment checks flowing to jobless Americans through the holiday season."

THINK PROGRESS: State Department: President Bush's record on "pushing for human rights" is as good as any other president or country.

WONK ROOM: General Motors' Britta Gross talks the Volt, smart grids, and the future of Detroit.

YGLESIAS: Weighing long-term and short-term deficits.

EZRA KLEIN: Pressing America's Health Insurance Plans on their latest health care proposal.

MISSOURI: Conservative legislative panel says abortion is "partly to blame" for undocumented immigration "because it is causing a shortage of American workers."

FLORIDA: State economists are expected to announce a $2 billion deficit.

ECONOMY: As jobless funds dry out, several states "are imposing higher taxes on employers and reducing benefits."

"And frankly, I think the Congress is still a center-right Congress."
-- House Minority leader John Boehner (R-OH), 11/19/08

VERSUS

"Democrats captured at least 19 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives yesterday as the party expanded the congressional majority it gained two years ago."
-- Bloomberg, 11/5/08

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