THINK PROGRESS
The Progress Report

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, and Ryan Powers

November 7, 2008

CIVIL RIGHTS
Propping Up Prejudice

On Tuesday, California, Arizona, and Florida voted to ban marriage equality. A fourth state, Arkansas, voted to deny unmarried couples the right to adopt children, widely seen as a way to prevent gay couples from adopting. The success of such prejudiced ballot measures on Tuesday was a narrow, but significant victory for the radical right and constituted the "most potent ingredient making Tuesday's election bittersweet" for the progressive cause. Of the four measures, the most high-profile was California's Prop. 8, which for the first time in state history repealed a previously-recognized right. Californian's voted 52 percent to 47 percent in favor of amending the state constitution to "eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry in California." The measure, while initially opposed by a majority of Californians, attracted enormous amounts of money from out of state. The well-funded "Yes On 8" campaign flooded the state with misinformation and false claims about the effects of gay marriage on communities, children, and the economy. It is unclear whether the measure will survive a series of fresh legal challenges, which argue that Prop. 8 violates other provisions of the state constitution's guarantee of equal protection.

LGBT RIGHTS IN AMERICA: Gay couples can marry in just two states, Massachusetts and Connecticut. New York recognizes marriages from couples married in other states, and New Jersey, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington all offer gay couples the ability to form civil-unions that grant couples varying rights and benefits under the law. With the passage of Tuesday's ballot measures, 30 state constitutions now ban same-sex marriage, while a total of 37 states have passed legislation defining marriage between one man and one woman. Marriage equality is needed to establish for gay couples the same rights and benefits that heterosexual married couples are given. Unfortunately, legalizing gay marriage at the state-level offers no rights or benefits to couples at the federal level. Indeed, at the federal level same-sex couples are unrecognized as a result of the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act, which "defines marriage as a legal union between one man and one woman for purposes of all federal laws" and "provides that states need not recognize a marriage from another state if it is between persons of the same sex." Gay couples are prohibited from adopting children in six states: Michigan, Nebraska, Utah, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Florida. In 30 states, employers are allowed to fire employees just because of their sexual orientations.

BUYING PREJUDICE: California's Prop. 8 overturned the California Supreme Court ruling that "declared same-sex couples had the right to marry under the California Constitution on the grounds of privacy and equal protection." According to polling, California's Prop. 8 was initially opposed by a majority of the state's residents. Just 40 percent of Californians in May 2008 believed the state should ban gay marriage via Constitutional amendment. But as Nov. 4 approached, enormous amounts of money supporting the ban poured into California. The Knights of Columbus, a Catholic group, gave $1.25 million, while James Dobson's Focus on the Family contributed more than $400,000 to the Yes On 8 campaign. The Mormon Church dedicated millions more, giving an estimated 40 percent of the $15.4 million dollars raised for the effort by June of 2008. In all, the "Yes on 8" campaign raised $35.8 million. The funds went to disseminating misinformation through the Internet, TV ads, and direct mailings. The supporters of the ban falsely claimed that if it did not pass, gay marriage would be "taught in schools," churches would lose their non-profit status, and people could be sued for their "personal beliefs." The Yes on 8 campaign masked its bigoted efforts, claiming, "I think we won because we stuck to our guns of being pro-marriage and not anti-gay." 

THE WAY FORWARD: The one bright spot is that Prop. 8 was opposed at significantly higher rates among California's youth. According to the Public Policy Institute of California, a poll taken before the election showed that 59 percent of likely voters aged 18 to 34 opposed the anti-gay measure. Indeed, young Californians "from high schoolers -- some of them not even old enough to vote themselves -- to college students" worked to educate the public about the discriminatory effects of Proposition 8. It's unclear, however, exactly what will happen to California's gay couples who already married. The state's attorney general maintained yesterday that their marriages would still be valid, but others are not so confident. Despite its narrow approval, Prop. 8 is not final. Yesterday, "gay rights supporters filed three lawsuits Wednesday -- including one by the ACLU -- asking the California Supreme Court to overturn Proposition 8." The suits claim, "Lawyers for same-sex couples argued that the anti-gay-marriage measure was an illegal constitutional revision -- not a more limited amendment, as backers maintained -- because it fundamentally altered the guarantee of equal protection," the LA Times notes.

Under the Radar

IRAQ -- OBAMA VICTORY HELPS EASE STALEMATE ON IRAQ SECURITY AGREEMENT: The Bush administration and the Iraqi government have been engaged in contentious talks over a security agreement to determine the legal status of U.S. forces in Iraq. At issue has been a timeline for withdrawal requested by Iraqis and whether to provide immunity for U.S. contractors operating in Iraq. But the election of President-elect Barack Obama, given his commitment to withdrawing from Iraq, "is already beginning to shift the political ground in Iraq and the region," the New York Times reports today. Iraqi Shi'ite politicians and a Bush administration official are now indicating that "a new security agreement about American troops" could be completed faster and possibly ratified as early as the middle of this month.  Sh'ite politicians had been under intense pressure from Iranian leaders not to sign a security agreement. "But now, the Iraqis appear to be feeling less pressure from Iran, perhaps because the Iranians are less worried that an Obama government will try to force a regime change in their country," the Times notes.  Jabeer Habeeb, an independent Shi'ite lawmaker and a political scientist at Baghdad University, put it simply: "Obama's election shifts Iraq into a new position."

RADICAL RIGHT WING -- KRISTOL FLOATS REVIVED 'PROJECT FOR A NEW AMERICAN CENTURY' TO SUPPORT NEOCONS IN THE WILDERNESS: In 1997, Bill Kristol and Robert Kagan co-founded the Project for a New American Century, a neoconservative organization meant "to promote American global leadership" through "military strength and moral clarity." The organization, whose statement of principles was signed by Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld and Paul Wolfowitz, is largely credited with putting America on the path to the preventative invasion of Iraq. In an interview with Hugh Hewitt yesterday, Kristol said that he would like to set up a similar organization to operate during an Obama presidency."I actually think there are people talking about this. And there's a lot of good foreign policy and defense thinking on our side...But a little bit of a political organization for them wouldn't be bad," he said. Kristol mentioned conservative foreign policy thinkers Bob Kagan and Reuel Gerecht - who were both employed by the original PNAC -- and Fred Kagan and Victor Davis Hanson, who are currently at the American Enterprise Institute and the Hoover Institution, respectively.

ADMINISTRATION -- PUBLISHERS HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN PUBLISHING BUSH'S MEMOIR: President Bush has reportedly expressed interest in writing a memoir of his White House years soon after he leaves office. However, the Associated Press reported yesterday that a number of publishers have a suggestion for Bush: "Take your time." "If I were advising President Bush, given how the public feels about him right now, I think patience would probably be something that I would encourage," said Paul Bogaards, executive director of publicity for Alfred A. Knopf, which released Bill Clinton's "My Life" in 2004. "Certainly the longer he waits, the better," says Marji Ross, president and publisher of the conservative Regnery Publishing. When Bush finally gets a book deal, other publishes say that he will probably not see the amount of money past presidents have received. "I don't think Bush can get the kind of money Clinton did if only because the foreign rights interest will be considerably less," says Jonathan Karp, of Hachette Book Group USA.

Think Fast

U.S. companies cut 240,000 jobs in October. The nation's unemployment rate spiked to 6.5 percent, the highest since March 1994. The numbers are worse than economists had predicted.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) "is pushing his party's leadership to expel Sen. Ted Stevens from the Senate during this month's 'lame duck' session." DeMint, "one of the most conservative members of the Senate, is said to be angry with Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) for tolerating a convicted felon in the GOP caucus."

Yesterday, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) "took a first step" toward "finding out what punishment he may face" for backing John McCain for president, by meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV). Reid said that nothing had been decided, although an aide revealed that he was "leaning toward removing Lieberman as chairman of the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee."

"The word most used to label George W. Bush's presidency will be 'incompetent,' historians say." "Right now there is not a lot of good will among historians. Most see him as a combination of many negative factors," said Julian Zelizer, a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton.

President-elect Barack Obama is said to be considering Lawrence Summers and New York Fed Reserve President Timothy Geithner for Treasury Secretary. "Democrats are split" over the two choices. "They're all qualified, that’s the good news, unlike if you look back at the Cabinet of this past president -- not always the case," said one Democratic member of Congress.

New accounts call into question the Georgian assertion that it was acting defensively against Russian aggression this summer. Instead, they "suggest that Georgia's inexperienced military attacked the isolated separatist capital of Tskhinvali on Aug. 7 with indiscriminate artillery and rocket fire" that put civilians in harm's way.

A strategy review by the Bush administration is likely to recommend "to the incoming Obama administration that the U.S. push for further expansion of the Afghan army as the surest path to an eventual U.S. withdrawal." The strategy review, which began in September and is expected to be presented in December, is meant to be "a kind of road map for the next administration."

And finally: Barney, President Bush’s beloved Scottish terrier, may look cute and friendly, but watch out. Yesterday, Reuters reporter Jim Decker reached down to pet Barney, who then bit him. Watch the incident here. The LA Times writes, "Maybe Barney, a Scottish terrier, was fed up with liberal media bias."

Good News

Colorado's Amendment 46 has been defeated, "the first time that a Ward Connerly supported anti-affirmative action ballot amendment has been struck down by voters."

State Watch

MINNESOTA: Somali translator on Sen. Norm Coleman's (R-MN) payroll reportedly pressured voters at polls.

MICHIGAN
: "Gov. Jennifer Granholm said she will release $150 million from the state treasury for banks and credit unions to loan to businesses and consumers squeezed by the nation's credit crunch."

CIVIL RIGHTS: Federal election officials are pushing for early voting for all states.

Blog Watch

THINK PROGRESS: Glenn Beck claims that conservatives voted for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) hoping he would die in office so Gov. Sarah Palin could take over.

YGLESIAS: The Right's inequality challenge.

MEDIA MATTERS: It's not just Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity.

Daily Grill

"I don't think anybody could tell you right now if we're in a recession or not."
-- White House Press Secretary Dana Perino, 10/07/08

VERSUS

"We are currently in -- or the National Bureau of Economic Research will shortly determine we're in -- a recession."
-- U.S. Chamber of Commerce executive Bruce Josten, 11/06/08

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