Iraq -- Status Uncertain

October 27, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, and Ryan Powers

IRAQ

Status Uncertain

It looks increasingly likely that President Bush will leave office without having achieved one of his most significant goals: the signing of a status of forces agreement (SOFA) between the United States and Iraq. Iraq's Cabinet has delayed a decision on the draft security agreement that would provide a legal framework for the U.S. military presence in Iraq. "One prominent lawmaker suggested some parties may be stalling until after the U.S. election on Nov. 4," the AP reported on Sunday. The U.S. presence is currently authorized by a U.N. resolution that expires on Dec. 31. In the absence of an agreement, the U.S. government "has warned Iraq that it will shut down military operations and other vital services throughout the country on Jan. 1." Many Iraqi politicians consider this threat "akin to political blackmail." Explaining why the agreement would not be signed in its current form, Sheikh Jalal al-Din al-Sagheer, the deputy head of the Shiite Muslim Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, told McClatchy that "for this matter, we need national consensus." Sagheer said Iraq's political leaders are considering seeking an extension of the United Nations mandate.

IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES: The main points of disagreement are the target date for American military withdrawal and immunity of U.S. troops from prosecution under Iraqi law for acts committed while on duty. After declaring intention last year to get an agreement signed, the Bush administration and the Maliki government issued a statement of principles last November to guide a future agreement. In the interim, Maliki has become better established as an Iraqi leader, but has also become more acutely aware of Iraqi demands for a U.S. exit. Followers of popular Shi'a leader Muqtada al-Sadr have insisted for years on a firm commitment for U.S. withdrawal. Last weekend, tens of thousands of Sadr's followers, along with many Sunnis, demonstrated in Baghdad against the proposed agreement. It is also highly unlikely that Washington will budge on its insistence that U.S. troops enjoy immunity while performing their military duties. Unfortunately, by clinging to his goal of an extended U.S. presence in Iraq, Bush has squandered much of the U.S.'s leverage with Iraq's leaders. Rather than the use the prospect of American withdrawal to encourage those leaders toward a sustainable national unity agreement, the Bush administration has instead been bargaining with Iraq to allow the U.S. to stay. As a result, neither goal has been achieved.

SLEEPING ON THE SOFA: Two weeks ago, commander of U.S.-led forces in Iraq Gen. Ray Odierno blamed Iran for the trouble over the SOFA, telling the Washington Post that Iran was "working publicly and covertly to undermine the status-of-forces agreement." But no one should find it surprising that Iran would seek to influence an agreement that could potentially involve a significant U.S. force presence on its border for years to come. Iran enjoys ties to all levels of leading Iraqi Shi'a parties like the Da'wa and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a relationship derived both from shared traditions of scholarly activism between Iran and Iraq, and from the fact these parties were headquartered in Tehran during the reign of Saddam Hussein. Though Iraq's Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has indicated that he would support the Iraqi government's decision on the SOFA -- having previously made his preferences clear -- other religious leaders have been less circumspect. Lebanon's Ayatollah Muhammad Hussein Fadlallah, a source of guidance for many in the Da'wa Party, including Maliki, indicated very strict conditions for any agreement. Iran's Ayatollah Kazem Ha'eri -- a source of guidance for many Sadrists -- rejected the SOFA outright. The power of these ayatollahs to effectively scuttle an agreement of significant import to the security of the United States throws into stark relief what the Bush administration has created in Iraq: a government dominated by religious Shia parties who take their guidance and draw their legitimacy primarily from the edicts of a small handful of senior Shi'a clerics.

UNDER THE RADAR: The status of forces agreement represented a last ditch effort by the Bush administration to salvage something positive from the failed war in Iraq. Walter Pincus writes in this morning's Washington Post that the SOFA as written "would apparently tie the hands of the next U.S. president in some respects if it was ratified by the Iraqis before Jan. 20." Yale Law School professor Bruce Ackerman and University of California-Berkeley professor Oona Hathaway argue that "the Bush proposal undermines the constitutional powers of the next president as commander in chief" by "subject[ing] American military operations to 'the approval of the Iraqi government.'" But with the presidential campaign in the homestretch, Americans are hearing too little about an agreement which has serious and significant implications for America's future in the Middle East. Brian Katulis and Peter Juul of the Center for American Progress wrote last week that "the American people should be engaged in the debate every bit as much as the Iraqi people are today across their own country. ... Americans cannot afford to allow a lame duck administration to push through an 11th-hour agreement with Iraq that might not advance America's national security interests." It now looks like reaching an agreement on the status of U.S. forces in Iraq will fall to the next administration -- just like the rest of the Iraq mess.

MEDIA -- NYT FALSELY REPORTS CAPAF CEO PODESTA HAS ALREADY WRITTEN OBAMA'S INAUGURATION: On Saturday, the New York Times published an article sensationally claiming that Center for American Progress Action Fund founder and CEO and the head of Sen. Barack Obama's (D-IL) transition team John Podesta "has been mapping out the transition so systematically that he has already written a draft Inaugural Address for Mr. Obama, which he published this summer in a book called 'The Power of Progress.'" Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) seized on the claims, claiming that Obama has decided "it's time to move forward with his first inaugural address." "Maybe Barack Obama will even have his first State of the Union address before you head to the polls," McCain told a crowd in New Mexico. Unfortunately for McCain, the New York Times story is wrong. Podesta's book was in the works for over a year. There is a sample inaugural address at the end of the book, which Podesta explains he used as "a literary device" to "sum up the arguments in the book." In fact, the sample inaugural address was submitted to the publisher in March, when Podesta was still supporting Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) candidacy. On Sunday, the New York Times's Caucus blog fact-checked its own reporters, noting that Podesta's book was written while he was a Clinton supporter, while the LA Times rightly labeled the report an "erroneous New York Times story." This morning, NBC's Andrea Mitchell reported that the Times "confused a sample speech in a book by John Podesta, Obama's transition director, a former Clinton supporter, written as advice for whomever gets the nomination."

ECONOMY -- KYL SAYS BUSH IS BLAME-FREE IN FINANCIAL MESS: Yesterday on CNN's Late Edition, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) claimed President Bush's economic agenda had nothing to do with the current financial crisis, insisting defiantly that Bush "doesn’t run the economy." "George Bush doesn't run the economy. He didn't create this problem," said Kyl. The current financial crisis is a direct result of Bush running the economy. Bush's massive tax cuts for the wealthy have contributed to record inequality and historic deficits and debt. The administration gutted several "specific regulations" of the financial system, helping plunge Wall Street into the mess it is facing today. Embracing a common conservative talking point, Kyl tried to lay all the blame for the crisis on the lack of regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. As Alan Greenspan, SEC Chairman Chris Cox, and former Treasury Secretary John Snow -- along with the Wonk Room -- have explained, this is false. Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Scott Lilly has noted that for the past eight years "we have papered over the fact that American consumers do not have the purchasing power to sustain economic expansion" The reason for this is that Bush's policies have done nothing for the majority of Americans.

ECONOMY -- AARP: ECONOMIC SLUMP DELAYING RETIREMENTS: According to a study released today by the AARP "at least seven in 10 Americans older than 45 expect they will have to continue to work beyond 65," because "as the global economic slump affects their savings and pensions and the cost of living climbs...they will need the money or will need to support members of their family." According to data from the Department of Labor, currently "16 percent of Americans older than 65 are working, compared with 12 percent at the end of the 1990s." Not only are those close to retirement looking at their 401(k) pension funds and realizing that they don't have enough money to retire, said AARP director of workforce issues Deborah Russel, "but also those who are retired, are looking at their portfolios and recognizing that, in fact, they may have to go back to work." The Financial Times reported today that "public pension funds in US states are facing their worst year of losses in history, exacerbating existing funding shortfalls and putting pressure on state governments to shore them up."

The U.S. military has warned Iraq that it will shut down military operations and other vital services throughout the country on Jan. 1 if the Iraqi government doesn’t agree to a new agreement on the status of U.S. forces or a renewed United Nations mandate for the American mission in Iraq. Tariq al Hashimi, Iraq's Sunni vice president, said that many Iraqi politicians "view the move as akin to political blackmail."

President Bush "has remained almost invisible as the Republican figurehead, primarily attending smallish and closed fundraisers in safe GOP areas." He has raised just over $80 million raised for his party, "about 35 percent less than he raised in 2006."

The securities industry still has $20 billion to pay in bonuses, Bloomberg reports. "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, both still on track for profitable years, have set aside about $13 billion for bonuses after three quarters." Some at Lehman Brothers "will get the same bonus they received a year ago."

New job data show "the labor market is now the worst it’s been since the two prior recessions in 2001 and the early 1990s." "One of the starkest indicators is that the number of people who have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more reached two million in September. That's 21% of the total unemployed, and approaching the prior peaks of about 23% in 2003 and 1992."

"At least 64,000 people from all 50 states and more than 20 other countries have given money to support or oppose a ban on same-sex marriage in California," the AP reports. Contributions for and against Prop. 8 have surpassed $60 million, which is "a record nationally for a ballot initiative based on a social rather than economic issue."

More than 50,000 registered Georgia voters have been "flagged" because of a computer mismatch in their personal identification information. Situations like Georgia's are "raising fears of potential vote suppression in crucial swing states" because "lists of people with mismatches are often systematically cut, or 'purged,' from voter rolls."

The Fallujah wastewater treatment plant -- meant "to be the centerpiece of an effort to rebuild Iraq" -- has now cost $100 million and run three years late, according to an Inspector General report. "The project was so poorly conceived that there is no reliable electricity to run pumps and purification tanks, and no money left to connect homes to the main sewer lines, which now run uselessly beneath Fallujah's streets.

And finally: Gather round, Californians. "Project Runway" star Tim Gunn has cut a new add opposing the marriage equality ban in California. "Over the years, I've seen some questionable fashion choices on the runway," says Gunn. "But I've never seen anything as unattractive as the content of Proposition 8." Watch the ad here.

On Friday, Apple publicly announced its opposition to Prop. 8 in California.

THINK PROGRESS: San Francisco 49ers interested in Condoleezza Rice.

WONK ROOM: I was a global warming terrorist.

YGLESIAS: Learning to love the Big Box.

RAISING KAINE: Conservatives assault Democratic tracker while Rep. Frank Wolf (R-VA) stands by and does nothing.

RHODE ISLAND: At 8.8 percent, Rhode Island now has the highest unemployment rate in the nation.

MASSACHUSETTS: Budget woes force Gov. Deval Patrick (D) to scale back his plan to provide free education from pre-school to community college.

CIVIL RIGHTS: LGBT groups are using donations to become a force in elections.

"George Bush doesn't run the economy. He didn't create this problem."
-- Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), 10/26/08

VERSUS

"[Bush's pro-wealthy economic policy] drained the American consumer of the resources needed to keep the economy humming, and we have been able to sustain it only by borrowing from future prosperity and weakening our long-term capacity for growth."
-- Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Scott Lilly, 8/4/08

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