Think Progress

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, Ryan Powers, and Matt Duss

AFGHANISTAN

'Muddling Through'

Asked in November 2003 whether the United States would "finish the job" in Afghanistan, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) responded "I'm not as concerned as I am about Iraq...but I believe that if Karzai can make the progress that he is making then in the long term we may muddle through in Afghanistan." Unfortunately, "muddling through" is just what we seem to be doing in Afghanistan. According to the New York Times, a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) to be released in November "concludes that Afghanistan is in a 'downward spiral' and casts serious doubt on the ability of the Afghan government to stem the rise in the Taliban's influence there." The report will be "the most comprehensive American assessment in years on the situation in Afghanistan." In addition to the problem of cross-border attacks launched by militants in neighboring Pakistan, and inefficiency and corruption in the Afghan government, the report also describes "the destabilizing impact of the booming heroin trade, which by some estimates accounts for 50 percent of Afghanistan’s economy," according to intelligence officials. Afghanistan produces the most opium in the world.

THE CENTRAL FRONT: A Center for American Progress report, The Forgotten Front, anticipated the NIE's conclusions back in November 2007, noting that while "the United States and the international community initially made great strides to oust the Taliban and al Qaeda and stand up the Afghan government following the invasion in October 2001...the situation has dramatically deteriorated since 2005." The Taliban and Al Qaeda have regrouped in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border area and now support a growing Afghan insurgency. "Although the current administration has portrayed Iraq as the central front of the 'global war on terror,'" the report states, "Afghanistan and the borderlands of Pakistan remain the central battlefield." The website Long War Journal reported in August that "Afghanistan experienced 18.4 attacks per day in 2008, compared to 12.4 in 2007," with "the eastern provinces bordering Pakistan's tribal areas account[ing] for seven of the remaining top nine most violent provinces." Gen. David McKiernan, the commander of some 60,000 U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan, reported that roadside bomb attacks -- "the largest casualty-producing event in Afghanistan" -- are up 30 to 40 percent over last year. CAP's Caroline Wadhams, Colin Cookman, and Jenny Shin wrote yesterday that the new NIE and other reports "confirm that the current U.S. strategy in Afghanistan is desperately off-course and suffering from a lack of resources, policymaker attention, and clear, presidential-level direction."

AIR STRIKES UNSUITED TO COUNTERINSURGENCY: Unfortunately, "as the Taliban and other militants have gained strength, America has dropped more bombs, killing more civilians." A report from U.S. Central Command released on Wednesday concluded that a strike in August had "left 33 civilians dead, including at least 12 children," but that "U.S. forces acted in legitimate self-defense in launching an air assault against Taliban militants." The Afghan government has continually protested the high civilian death toll from air strikes. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said that the death of innocent civilians in these attacks could seriously undermine efforts to fight terrorism. Karzai told the U.N.General Assembly in August that the deaths hurt "the credibility of the Afghan people's partnership with the international community." Minimizing civilian casualties is key to a successful counterinsurgency effort, which is one reason air strikes are poorly suited to counterinsurgency. Currently, the U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan have had to over-rely on air power because of the overcommitment of troops and resources to Iraq. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Michael Mullen said in July "I don't have troops... to send into Afghanistan until I have a reduced requirement in Iraq." Anger over Iraq has also made NATO allies reluctant to step up their assistance.

NOT A 'SURGE' -- A SUSTAINED COMMITMENT: It's clear that many U.S. military leaders understand that Afghanistan is in crisis. In August, former Iraq commander and current CentCom head Gen. David Petraeus admitted to the New York Times that "the trends in Afghanistan have been in the wrong direction, and I think everyone is rightly concerned about them." McKiernan has "called for four more combat brigades" to deploy to Afghanistan. In August the Pentagon announced the addition of "12,000 to 15,000 additional U.S. troops... possibly as soon as the end of this year, with planning underway for a further force buildup in 2009." McKiernan told the Washington Post that Afghanistan requires a "sustained commitment" to a counterinsurgency effort that could last years. Contrary to McCain's claim that  "the same strategy" used in Iraq is "going to have to be employed in Afghanistan," McKiernian said "the word I don't use for Afghanistan is 'surge.'" Describing his approach in a speech Wednesday to the conservative Heritage Foundation, Gen. Petraeus said that "reaching out to insurgent groups...was necessary to the ultimate goal of turning them against irreconcilable enemies" like Al Qaeda. Petraeus believes that success in both Afghanistan and Iraq will require political, not military, solutions, and has stressed "the concept of reconciliation." "You cannot kill or capture your way out of an insurgency that is as significant in size as was the one in Iraq, nor, I believe, as large as the one that has developed in Afghanistan," he said.

ENVIRONMENT -- INHOFE: 'I THINK I WAS RIGHT' THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS 'THE GREATEST HOAX': In July 2003, Sen. James Inhofe (R-OK) proclaimed that "much of the debate over global warming is predicated on fear, rather than science" and called global warming the "greatest hoax ever perpetuated on the American people." Asked about his comment at a debate earlier this week, Inhofe didn't back down. "I think I was right on that...it's not whether or not we're going into a global warming period. We were. We're not now," Inhofe claimed, adding that "God's still up there. We're now going through a cooling spell." Inhofe then called global warming science "hysteria." NASA's Goddard Institute has shown that average global temperatures have been steadily rising since the turn of the 20th century, not cooling as Inhofe claimed. Moreover, climate scientists agree that the earth is warming and both NASA and the National Academy of Sciences agree that humans are a significant contributor to the problem. MEDIA -- AFTER AIRING ADS FOR BIG OIL, ABC REFUSES TO AIR WE CAMPAIGN AD: Since September, Al Gore's We Campaign has been running its "Repower America" television ad that criticizes the "hundreds of millions of dollars" that big oil spends on lobbyists and ads to keep Americans "stuck with dirty and expensive energy." Not surprisingly, coverage of the presidential race by the corporate media has been fueled by ad revenue from the hydrocarbon industry. For example, CNN's coverage is sponsored by the coal industry, while CBS is sponsored by Exxon Mobil. Following Tuesday's presidential debate, ABC aired one of Chevron's greenwashing "Human Energy" ads, but has so far refused to air the We Campaign's "Repower America" ad. ABC claimed in a a statement to the We Campaign, "Per our Guidelines, national buildings may be used in advertising provided the depictions are incidental to the advertiser's promotion of the product or service. Given the messages and themes of this commercial, the image of the Capital building is not incidental to this advertising." The offending section of the ad shows the words "Big Oil spends hundreds of millions to block clean energy" superimposed over a photo of the U.S. Capital dome. Cathy Zoi, CEO of the Alliance for Climate Protection responded by urging supporters to ask ABC to reconsider its decision. ETHICS -- ABC REPORT: NSA 'ROUTINELY' LISTENED TO AMERICANS' PHONE CALLS, PASSED AROUND 'SALACIOUS' BITS: ABC News reported yesterday that "despite pledges by President George W. Bush and American intelligence officials to the contrary, hundreds of US citizens overseas have been eavesdropped on as they called friends and family back home." The allegations come from "two former military intercept officers assigned to the National Security Agency" and "include claims that U.S. spies routinely listened in on intimate conversations and sometimes shared the recordings with each other." The Washington Post noted today that "at least some of the snooping was done under relaxed eavesdropping rules approved by the Bush administration to facilitate spying on terrorists." According to the ABC report, NSA employees "routinely shared salacious or tantalizing phone calls that had been intercepted, alerting office mates to certain time codes of 'cuts' that were available on each operator's computer."  The chairman of the Senate intelligence committee, Sen. John Rockefeller (D-WV), called the accusations "extremely disturbing" and said he may hold hearings.

Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman John Rockefeller (D-WV) said his panel "would investigate claims by two military eavesdroppers that they routinely listened in on private calls home from American military officers, aid workers and journalists stationed in Iraq." Rockefeller called the accusations “extremely disturbing." "Global stocks plummeted Friday after the rout a day earlier on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average lost more than 7 percent," with European markets falling more than 10 percent at the opening. On Saturday, President Bush will meet with "finance ministers from the world’s richest countries at an unusual White House meeting to swap ideas" as to how to address the global credit crisis. "The global financial crisis is turning into a bigger drain on the U.S. federal budget than experts estimated two weeks ago." The 2009 budget deficit could be close to $2 trillion, according to David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist. "Two weeks ago, budget analysts said the measures might push deficit to as much as $1.5 trillion." Despite declining prices, gas consumption across the U.S. has continued to fall as a result of the faltering economy. Last week, "gas demand was off 5.5% versus last year," while the national average for gasoline fell to $3.40 a gallon. Yesterday, President Bush created a special council "to guide the transition to a new administration, another step toward the end of Bush’s eight tumultuous years in office." Under an executive order Bush signed, "a newly created Presidential Transition Coordinating Council will meet Wednesday to begin mapping out an orderly handoff" to Barack Obama or John McCain. "An Iraqi member of Parliament from Moktada al-Sadr's political movement was killed in a roadside bombing in Baghdad" yesterday. The legislator, Saleh al-Ugaili, "was the second Iraqi member of Parliament to be killed in violence in 18 months." Followers of Sadr, including his chief spokesman, are blaming the United States for the attack. And finally: "There's no doubt what Vladimir Putin's favorite birthday present is this year -- a rare Ussuri tiger cub," the AP reports. Putin was seen on Russian state television affectionately petting the two-month-old female cub, who "weighs only about 20 pounds and sleeps in a wicker basket at Putin’s residence outside Moscow." He has not yet settled on a name, but is leaning toward Mashenka or Milashka, and plans to find a home for her in a zoo or wildlife preserve. Fewer than 400 Ussuri tigers live in the wild.

"With just two exceptions, China has officially halted all of its coal-to-liquids (CTL) projects due to environmental and economic concerns."

THINK PROGRESS: Fox News host jokes about the size of Sen. Hillary Clinton's (D-NY) legs.

WONK ROOM: D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals casts Uighur detainees back into purgatory.

YGLESIAS: The terror effect on voting.

DEMOCRACY ARSENAL: The Bipartisan Policy Center's "bipartisan" report on Iran was primarily drafted by "hard core neocon" Michael Rubin.

GEORGIA: "[M]ore African-Americans have been added to [voter] rolls than white voters."

TEXAS: University of Texas president suspends rule prohibiting political signs in dorm rooms after a student protests.

SCIENCE: Stem cell science is an election issue in three states

"It's a phone call of an al Qaeda, known al Qaeda suspect."
-- President Bush, 1/23/06, on the extent of his surveillance program

VERSUS

"[H]undreds of US citizens overseas have been eavesdropped on as they called friends and family back home."
-- ABC, 10/9/08

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