Iraq -- House Of Cards

October 6, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, and Ryan Powers

IRAQ

House Of Cards

Last month, when Gen. David Petraeus handed command of coalition forces in Iraq to Gen. Ray Odierno, the new top U.S. commander announced that while "Iraq is now a different country from the one" he first saw, the "gains are fragile and reversible." Odierno's sentiments were reflected earlier this month when the Pentagon released a report detailing how violence had continued to decline over the summer. At the same time, the report warned of "several problems that could rekindle violence among competing groups and upset the recent progress on security." These concerns include the reintegration of "the nearly 100,000 predominantly Sunni volunteer fighters known as the Sons of Iraq into the army, police or other jobs," continued "Iranian influence in funding, training and arming militias," and expected sectarian tensions ahead of provincial elections. Other "flash points that could lead to violence" include "friction between Arabs and Kurds" over Kurdish control of areas in Northern Iraq and disputes over "how to divide its oil revenue among the different regions." A recent spate of bombings have underscored the fact that "Iraq is on a knife's edge between war and peace." After five bomb attacks struck Baghdad late last month, the New York Times reported that the incidents "reinforced fears among a growing number of residents that the security situation in Baghdad was deteriorating." "The surge has set up a political house of cards," wrote Brian Katulis, Marc Lynch, Peter Juul recently for the Center for American Progress. "The United States needs to rebalance its overall national security approach by stepping outside of the trenches of intra-Iraqi disputes over power and putting the focus back on its core national security interests."

SONS OF IRAQ: Last Wednesday, the Shi'ite-led Iraqi government took command of the first wave of 54,000 members of the Sons of Iraq as part of "a U.S.-backed effort to ease sectarian mistrust and offer Sunnis a stronger stake in the country's future." But the transition from U.S. control to Iraqi control is rife with tension. "Some leaders of the Sons of Iraq feel that the transition represents a betrayal by the U.S. The government of Prime Minister Nouri Maliki also questioned the Sunni fighters' loyalty to Iraqi forces and whether it can provide jobs and training for all of them," the Los Angeles Times reported last week. "US officers are nervous that the government will not keep its word when the first salaries are due early November" and "some US units have reportedly set aside cash to pay the SOI for a few months, just in case." Before the handover of authority, Wahab al-Zubaie, a spokesman for one of the Sunni groups, told the Associated Press "that security could deteriorate if Sunni fighters are sidelined." Some Sunnis "draw comparisons between the dissolution of the Sons of Iraq and the disbanding of the Iraqi army," which was "a key strategic blunder that gave a massive boost to the insurgency." American leaders like Petraeus reject this comparison.

PROVINCIAL ELECTIONS: On Friday, Iraq's presidency council approved "a long-delayed law that will allow most of the country to hold provincial elections early next year." The Iraqi parliament "approved the law unanimously on Sept. 24 following months of deadlock" after they "agreed to set aside the divisive issues of power-sharing in an oil-rich northern region and the representation of minorities." Before the presidency council approved the law, the U.N. special representative to Iraq, Staffan de Mistura, criticized the parliament for scrapping the "key clause that would have guaranteed seats for Christians and other minorities." De Mistura urged that the provision "be reinstated into the legislation as soon as possible." A staff aide to one of Iraq's vice presidents told McClatchy that the presidency council will ask parliament to reinstate the provision, which is supported by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Though the "elections law is seen as a key step toward bringing underrepresented groups back into Iraqi politics," Lynch says the elections will not be a "magic bullet that's going to solve all the problems." "It's going to reshuffle the deck in terms of who's in and who's out, but I don't think it's going to be a magic bullet that is suddenly going to resolve all the political problems in Iraq," Lynch told the Council on Foreign Relations. "The problems run deep."

ABOVE PRE-SURGE TROOP LEVELS: During the vice presidential debate last Thursday, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin (R) declared that "with the surge that has worked we're now down to pre-surge numbers in Iraq." Palin's claim about current troop levels in Iraq is not true. As ABC News noted in a fact-check of the debate, "the number of troops on the ground is still higher and the number of combat brigades is the same as at the start of the surge in January 2007, according to Pentagon figures. Iraq troop levels before the surge were at 133,500. While U.S. troop levels in Iraq have been in the 142,000 range recently, today they are at around 150,000 because of an ongoing troop rotation." The day after the debate, Palin was given an opportunity by Fox News's Carl Cameron to correct her false claim. But Palin "did not apologize nor did she retract her assertion that U.S. forces in Iraq are at pre-surge levels." Palin's running mate, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), made a similar misstatement in May, saying that "we have drawn down to pre-surge levels." Like Palin, McCain refused to admit that he made mistake. Instead, McCain subtly changed his language to say "we are drawing back down from the surge."

ENVIRONMENT -- HURRICANE IKE CAUSES HALF A MILLION GALLONS OF OIL SPILLS: A new AP analysis shows that Hurricane Ike "destroyed oil platforms, tossed storage tanks and punctured pipelines," resulting in "[a]t least a half millions gallons of crude oil spilled into the Gulf of Mexico and the marshes, bayous and bays of Louisiana and Texas." The Coast Guard has responded to more than 3,000 pollution reports. "At times, a new spill or release was reported to the Coast Guard every five minutes to 10 minutes." Ike's enormously destructive wreckage adds further proof that conservatives' claims regarding the safety of offshore oil drilling are totally false. As they pushed for expanded drilling this summer, conservatives repeatedly insisted that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita "didn't spill a drop" of oil. Even Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman claimed that during Katrina and Rita, "there was not one case where we had a situation with oil or gas being spilled in the environment." This is a lie: Those hurricanes caused 124 offshore oil spills releasing over 700,000 gallons of oil. The clear evidence of Ike's environmental damage comes just days after House progressives allowed the ban on offshore oil drilling to expire, potentially clearing the way for hundreds of new rigs to be built -- and for destructive new oil spills to be created.

CIVIL RIGHTS -- FOX'S '24' PRODUCER WITHDRAWS ENDORSEMENT OF ANTI-MUSLIM FILM 'OBESSION': The executive producer of Fox's "24," Howard Gordon, has "withdrawn his endorsement" of an anti-Muslim film "currently being distributed to some 28 million households in presidential election swing states." The film -- entitled "Obession: Radical Islam's War Against the West" -- features "graphic images of terrorism, video of anti-American speeches from Mideast television and comparisons with Nazi Germany." The Council on American-Islamic Relations noted that "those interviewed in 'Obsession' constitute a veritable who's who of Muslim-bashers," including one individual who said last year, "Islam is not the religion of God -- Islam is the devil." About 70 different new papers, including the New York times, agreed to distribute the film "on the grounds that rejecting it would violate the sponsor's right to free speech." The "great majority of the reaction" that papers have received from their readers has been negative. A spokesperson for The News & Observer in Raleigh, NC, one of the distributors of the film, said that "the paper received about 500 e-mail and phone messages and had some 50 cancellations." The DVD is being distributed by the Clarion fund, "a nonprofit founded in 2006 to address 'the most urgent threat of radical Islam.'"

MEDIA -- TRADITIONAL MEDIA STAND TO RECEIVE $1.44 BILLION FROM McCAIN'S TAX CUTS: Prior to and following the vice-presidential debates, several prominent conservatives on Fox News purported that the "mainstream media" has a preference for an Obama presidency. Fox pundits Bill Kristol, Kirsten Powers, and Bernard Goldberg all agreed on the "obvious fact" of the "transparent agenda" of liberal media bias. These claims fly in the face of reality. The multinational corporations that run the mainstream media -- GE (NBC), Time Warner (CNN), Walt Disney (ABC), News Corporation (FOX), and Viacom (CBS) -- stand to benefit hugely under a Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) presidency, however. The centerpiece of McCain's economic plan -- actually, the whole plan -- is large tax cuts for corporations. It would deliver $1.44 billion in tax cuts to the five largest media companies, according to an analysis by the Center for American Progress Action Fund. These giveaways are just one result of McCain's doubling of the Bush tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy, which would create the largest deficits in 25 years and drive the United States into the deepest debt since World War II. McCain and Palin have promised that the recent $700 billion bailout would not threaten these tax cuts.

Lobbyists are angling to play a greater role as Treasury implements the bailout and Congress debates "how best to strengthen financial market oversight," The Hill reports. Several law and lobbying firms "announced the creation of financial services task forces that they are marketing to clients and potential clients as multi-disciplinary, one-stop shops for legislative, regulatory and legal advice."

Over the weekend, both Bill Maher's film "Religulous" and David Zucker's right-wing "An American Carol" opened up at the box office. Although "An American Carol" was playing on three times as many screens as "Religulous," three times as many people went to see Maher's film, and box office receipts were roughly the same.

The Supreme Court opens a new term today, with one of the first orders of business hearing arguments about limiting lawsuits against tobacco companies. The "business-friendly" court has so far agreed to hear 41 cases for the 2008-2009 term, with "at least 16 of these as business cases."

A "record-breaking season for voter registration drives" ends today with Democrats adding over 800,000 voters to the rolls and Republicans losing 300,000 “in eight of the most tightly fought states in the presidential race: Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico and New Hampshire."

House Republicans are defending deregulation in a new report, as the House Oversight Committee prepares to examine the causes of the financial crisis. "In the midst of the most serious financial crisis in a generation, some claim that deregulation is entirely to blame," the report says. "This is simply not true."

"Cowed by the financial crisis, American consumers are pulling back on their spending, all but guaranteeing that the economic situation will get worse before it gets better. ... When the final tally is in, consumer spending for the quarter just ended will almost certainly shrink, the first quarterly decline in nearly two decades."

Stocks tumbled in Europe and Asia today, a day after Germany and Belgium were “left scrambling to prevent the collapse of two lenders." "Trading on banking shares were halted in Iceland and Russia suspended both of its exchanges after indexes fell more than 14 percent."

And finally: Although Congress had been working around the clock on bailout legislation, "some Senators clearly tried to sneak in some fun amid all the pressures of meetings, briefings and cable news appearances." Roll Call reports that Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) "was spotted stocking up on celebratory libations" at a Capitol Hill bar, and on Thursday morning, Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) managed to get in some golfing.

Despite the financial crisis, sales of carbon offsets are up.

THINK PROGRESS: Defying White House recommendations, Harriet Miers refuses to talk to Department of Justice investigators.

WONK ROOM: Wall Street Journal writer's weak case blaming the Community Reinvestment Act and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac for the financial crisis.

YGLESIAS: Journalist Ron Suskind makes a dubious distinction about whether President Bush "behaved stupidly and badly" in the White House.

TPM CAFE: Fox News's Sean Hannity enlists a well-known anti-Semite to launch smears against Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL)

WISCONSIN: "A new audit says the state was wrong when it determined it could save money by outsourcing printing work."

MASSACHUSETTS: "Thousands of newly insured Massachusetts residents are relying on emergency rooms for routine medical care."

HEALTH CARE: "More than one-third of all Americans will soon receive better insurance coverage for mental health treatments because of a new law."

"President Bush made wildlife conservation an early and a high priority of his administration."
-- Vice President Dick Cheney, 10/3/08

VERSUS

"[The Bush administration] granted 57 species endangered status, the action in each case being prompted by a lawsuit. That's fewer than in any other administration in history."
-- Salon, 3/27/07

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