Iraq -- The Maliki Surge

August 27, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, Ryan Powers, and Matt Duss

IRAQ

The Maliki Surge

The past several months have seen a new assertiveness by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Beginning in March 2008, Maliki launched a series of offensives against rival militias and political movements, projecting government authority in formerly lawless areas as well as consolidating the power of his Shi'a ruling coalition. Maliki has also held a hard line against the United States in negotiating a status of forces agreement, insisting that any agreement contain a firm date for an eventual withdrawal of U.S. combat troops from Iraq. After years of condemning timelines, the Bush administration now seems ready to acquiesce, with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice indicating that the U.S. has agreed to an "aspirational timetable" for withdrawal. Reuters reports that "the United States asked Iraq for permission to maintain a troop presence there to 2015," but Iraqi President Jalal Talabani said that "U.S. and Iraqi negotiators agreed to limit their authorization to 2011." Lawrence Korb writes, "While American officials argue that these timetables for withdrawing American combat forces depend on conditions on the ground" the Iraqis "do not see it as conditional." Having extracted such a guarantee from his U.S. benefactor, Maliki looks to have co-opted one of the few issues upon which there is a strong consensus among Iraqis -- getting the U.S. out. Questions remain, however, as to how he will use this new political capital.

A SECOND CHOICE: Maliki was not the United States' preferred candidate for the post of prime minister. After U.S. pressure resulted in the ouster of prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari in early 2006, Maliki was chosen in a compromise between the two largest Shi'a political blocs, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and followers of cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. A member of the Islamic Da'wa Party, Maliki is seen by many Iraqis as a deeply sectarian leader. He spent time in exile in Iran and Syria and maintains strong ties with Tehran. In the two years following his taking office, U.S. and Iraqi leaders continually complained of Maliki's unwillingness to confront Sadr's Mahdi Army militia as it conducted large-scale sectarian cleansing in formerly mixed neighborhoods of Baghdad. Maliki's release of Saddam Hussein to be executed on the eve of the Eid al-Adha holiday in December 2006 was also seen as a deeply provocative act by Iraq's Sunnis. In mid-2007, there were signs that the Bush administration was preparing to push for Maliki's replacement.

TAKING THE INITIATIVE: In March 2008, Maliki surprised American military leaders by launching an assault on Basra, with the goal of clearing out the militias who controlled much of the city and its valuable port. After the initial offensive stumbled, U.S. forces came to the aid of Iraqi forces, and the Mahdi Army withdrew after an Iranian-mediated cease-fire. Similar campaigns followed in Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood and Maysan province, both Sadrist strongholds. Disturbingly, Maliki's actions have not only focused on militias, but also on the infrastructure of rival political movements. His moves are seen by some analysts as "shaping operations" to ensure that his political coalition benefits from (now indefinitely postponed) provincial elections. Maliki has also begun to turn his fire on leaders of the Sunni Awakenings, former insurgent elements whose cooperation with U.S. forces is credited with recent successes against al Qaeda in Iraq. Whether the strategy of supporting these independent militias would translate into stable Iraq hinged on the question of whether Maliki would be willing to accommodate them, either by incorporating them into the Iraqi security services, or providing them other jobs. The answer now appears to be: "No."

FRUITS OF BUSH'S FREEDOM AGENDA: Iraq analysts Shawn Brimley and Colin Kahl wrote this week that "rising tensions in Iraq reveal a weakness in U.S. strategy and the Bush administration's approach to the war: the unconditional nature of our support to Maliki's government." Now that a newly assertive Maliki offers the illusion of American "victory" in Iraq, conservatives who once criticized Maliki for his sectarianism and ties to Iran seem to have conveniently forgotten their concerns. When no WMD's were found in Iraq, President Bush recast the invasion as part of a broader "freedom agenda" in the Middle East. Simplistically -- and dangerously -- equating elections with democracy, Bush proposed that by expanding freedom, America could defeat forces of extremism and terror. But in Iraq, as in Iran and the Palestinian territories, Bush's policies have empowered these forces. Now, because of the regional destabilization and radicalization resulting from the war in Iraq, Bush has backed off of his freedom agenda, and returned to the status quo of supporting authoritarian regimes who offer false stability. Maliki's failure to achieve any genuine national reconciliation -- while at the same time advancing his own narrow political interests -- is not encouraging. It would be a profound tragedy if 4000 Americans -- and tens of thousands of Iraqis -- died simply to establish another U.S.-enabled tyranny in the Middle East.

JUSTICE -- ONE YEAR AGO TODAY, GONZALES RESIGNED: One year ago today, Alberto Gonzales resigned as Attorney General of the United States amid questions of his "competence to run the Justice Department" and "accusations of perjury." As the Washington Post reported at the time, Gonzales was "one of the nation's most controversial attorneys general since the Watergate era." Gonzales's departure, however, has done little to reverse the documented politicization of the Justice Department. In recent months, Gonzales's replacement, Micheal Mukasey, has refused to say whether he believes Gonzales politicized the department, promised not to investigate officials who authorized the use of torture on detainees of the U.S. government, and refused to review the qualifications of career employees hired by former Principal Deputy Director of Public Affairs Monica Goodling using a political litmus test. As Sen. Arlen Specter (R-PA) explained recently, Mukasey "hasn't provided the balance that I had hoped for." The anniversary of Gonzales's resignation comes a day after Federal District Judge John Bates rejected the Bush administration's request for a stay of his recent ruling that former White House aides Harriet Miers and Joshua Bolton must testify before Congress about the politicization.

HEALTH CARE -- UNINSURED RATE FALLS AS GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS EXPAND: The U.S. Census Bureau said yesterday that the number of people living in the United States without health insurance fell in 2007 for the first time since President Bush took office -- from 47 million in 2006 to 45.7 million in 2007. The decline in uninsured is "thanks mostly to expanded government health coverage for children," the State Children's Health Insurance Program, observes the LA Times. While the number of people covered by government programs rose from 2006, "the rate of private health insurance coverage slid to 67.5% of U.S. residents in 2007, down from 67.9% a year earlier" with the employer-based insurance rate falling slightly to 59.3 percent from 59.7 percent. However, "the report, which also included data on income and poverty, did not take into account the economic downturn that began late last year, and therefore it probably presents a rosier picture than the current economic reality," the New York Times notes.

MEDIA -- LIMBAUGH FALSELY CLAIMS UNITED STATES IS 'MAJORITY' CONSERVATIVE: Quoting the American Thinker, on his radio show Monday, Rush Limbaugh used a cherry-picked poll to falsely argue on his radio show yesterday that a "conservative majority" exists in America. He focused on a single question from a recent Battleground Poll in which respondents were asked to place themselves on a conservative-to-liberal ideological spectrum. Sixty percent of respondents labeled themselves "very conservative or somewhat conservative. The truth is, however, that the so-called "conservative majority" does not exist. While many American's may call themselves conservative, the overwhelming majority of Americans support progressive policies. Indeed, a majority of Americans want universal health care, want to expand environmental protections, support increasing the minimum wage, oppose the Iraq war, and want to raise taxes on the wealthy to pay for national priorities, to name a few. The Drum Major Institute found in their recent survey of the American middle class that a majority of both Democrats and Republicans favor similar policies. And after eight years of conservative rule, a record 81 percent of Americans believe the country is on the "wrong track."

"There's quiet buzz in Washington this week that convicted GOP lobbyist Jack Abramoff and several colleagues -- including scam-artist Michael Scanlon -- will be sentenced soon for their roles in the 2005 tribes-and-bribes scandal.” The sentences “could come as early as next week, during the Republican convention."

Though "President Bush has invested heavily in trying to forge a strong bond with key foreign leaders," the Washington Post writes today that "new crises in Georgia and Pakistan are underscoring the limits of Bush's personal diplomacy." Bush "misjudged Putin" and when it was shown "his initial assessment of Putin was wrong, [Bush] tended to dismiss it," said Stanford University professor Michael A. McFaul.

Embattled Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) won the Republican primary in his home state yesterday, "soundly defeating six Republican challengers." Stevens, who "was indicted by a federal grand jury for concealing more than $250,000 in gifts from an oil services company" last month, will now face Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich in November.

"Afghanistan’s opium harvest has dropped from last year’s record high, the United Nations announced Tuesday. ... Poppy cultivation has dropped by 19 percent since 2007, and has fallen beneath 2006 levels as well."

Sheila Bair, the chairwoman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation warned yesterday "that the outlook for the ailing banking industry was bad -- and getting worse." Bair said "the swelling tide of toxic home loans is proving to be even more worrisome than initially feared," adding that “we haven’t seen the trough of the credit cycle yet."

International researchers said yesterday that "Arctic sea ice has shrunk to the second-lowest level since record-keeping began three decades ago" illustrating "how rapidly climate change is transforming ecosystems in northern latitudes." Because the ice usually "reaches its minimum level in mid-September, researchers warned that a new low might be recorded within weeks."

And finally: Former Clinton campaign communications director Howard Wolfson may have a new job as a Fox News commentator, but he's also started another media venture. Wolfson is now writing about indie rock on his blog GothamAcme. Wolfson says music is his "real passion" and he’s been "an avid reader of music blogs for a long time."

The Army has opened a prep school for high school dropouts where students will "hunch over special GED preparation books, working on basic math, social studies and reading selections."

THINK PROGRESS: CNN thinks only the top five percent of America's income earners count.

WONK ROOM: Census data: most Americans suffering under Bush economy.

YGLESIAS: Go means go.

COUNTY FAIR: The Washington Post's Howard Kurtz violated Post policy when he let a Fox News flack attack Jon Stewart anonymously.

MICHIGAN: "Michigan was the only state where poverty rose last year, as well as the only one where incomes fell, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics."

LOUISIANA: Memorial to Hurricane Katrina victirms is scheduled to be completed by Friday's third anniversary of the storm.

CALIFORNIA: "For the time being, many species of sea birds, fish and marine mammals are flourishing" off the state's coast.

"[There is a] conservative majority of the American people."
-- Rush Limbaugh, 8/25/08

VERSUS

"[T]he nation's middle class displays broad consensus on...support[ing] a universal national health insurance plan, requiring employers to provide paid family and medical leave, making it easier for employees to join labor unions, and allowing bankruptcy judges to change mortgage payments to keep homes out of foreclosure."
-- Drum Major Institute, 8/18/08

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