Terrorism -- Ending 'The War On Terror'

August 1, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Benjamin Armbruster, Ali Frick, and Ryan Powers

TERRORISM

Ending 'The War On Terror'

The federally-funded RAND Corp. -- a public policy research institute that counsels the Pentagon -- released a study this week examining "how terrorist groups end" and concluded that the United States can defeat al Qaeda but only if it relies less on the use of military force and more on policing and intelligence. RAND conducted a quantitative analysis of 648 terror groups that existed between 1968 and 2006 and found that "most groups have ended because (1) they joined the political process or (2) local police and intelligence agencies arrested or killed key members. Military force has rarely been the primary reason for the end of terrorist groups." While nearly half of the terror groups analyzed ended as a result of a transition into the political process, for those "that cannot or will not make a transition to nonviolence, policing is likely to be the most effective strategy." The study noted that "[a]fter September 11, 2001, the U.S. strategy against al Qa'ida centered on the use of military force" and that "U.S. policymakers and key national-security documents referred to operations against al Qa'ida as the war on terrorism [emphasis in original]." However, the study added: "The evidence by 2008 suggested that the U.S. strategy was not successful in undermining al Qa'ida's capabilities."

SHIFTING TO 'COUNTERTERRORISM': RAND noted that a political solution "is not possible" in diminishing or even ending the threat from al Qaeda but that the group's "resurgence should trigger a fundamental rethinking of U.S counterterrorism strategy." While "policing and intelligence should be the backbone of U.S. efforts," the study adds that "military force...may be a necessary instrument when al-Qa'ida is involved in an insurgency." However, the emphasis should be on local military forces, because "they have a better understanding of the operating environment, even if they need to develop the capacity to deal with insurgent groups over the long run. This means a light U.S. military footprint or none at all." But most importantly, the key component of this strategy "should include ending the notion of a war on terrorism and replacing it with such concepts as counterterrorism." The "war on terror" terminology "encourages others abroad to respond by conducting a jihad (or holy war) against the United States and elevates them to the status of holy warriors. Terrorists should be perceived and described as criminals, not holy warriors." RAND's analysis of the data "suggests that there is no battleﬁeld solution to terrorism. Military force usually has the opposite effect from what is intended: It is often over-used, alienates the local population by its heavy-handed nature, and provides a window of opportunity for terrorist-group recruitment."

GATES CALLS FOR 'SOFT POWER': A new National Defense Strategy approved by Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently echoes the RAND study's overall conclusions. The document argues that "success in Iraq and Afghanistan is crucial to winning this conflict, but it alone will not bring victory." The strategy embraces former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's vision of a "long war" against extremism but rejects Rumsfeld's focus on preemptive military action. The document emphasizes the use of "soft power" to undermine terrorist groups such as al Qaeda and to promote "economic, political and social development in vulnerable corners of the world." "The use of force plays a role, yet military efforts to capture or kill terrorists are likely to be subordinate to measures to promote local participation in government and economic programs to spur development," the document says, adding that "the most important military component of the struggle against violent extremists is not the fighting we do ourselves, but how well we help prepare our partners to defend and govern themselves." Stressing that the U.S. focus on "irregular" warfare and counterterrorism, the new strategy urges the U.S. to build "collaborative and cooperative relationships" with Russia and China and calls for "an absence of fundamental conflict between great powers to shape the future, and to prevent the re-emergence of great power rivalry."

EXPOSING BUSH'S NAIVETE: During the 2004 presidential campaign, Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) said that the U.S. should combat terrorism in the same manner that the RAND study and the new National Defense Strategy now advocate: with less military force and more intelligence, policing and cooperation with allies. President Bush, however, smeared Kerry's strategy as "naive and dangerous" in 2004 and ran campaign ads that asked, "How can Kerry protect us if he doesn't even understand the threat?" Yesterday, Kerry delivered a speech to the Center for American Progress Action Fund (CAPAF) that reiterated his position from 2004: "We have to take our military-dominated 'war on terror' and remake it as the global counterinsurgency campaign that it always should have been." Quoting the RAND report, Kerry noted that "military action was the primary cause of a terrorist group meeting its final demise in just seven percent of the time." Kerry followed up his speech with an online discussion at TPM Cafe, where he outlined six key aspects of a successful global counterterrorism campaign and recommended that "everyone should read [CAPAF senior fellow] Brian Katulis' new book [The Prosperity Agenda] for a sense of how we win the war of ideas globally." Katulis's book, co-authored with former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Nancy Soderberg, argues that the Bush administration's so-called "Freedom Agenda" as a means to defeat terrorist groups has not worked, and the next U.S. administration needs to focus on a more comprehensive strategy focusing on the basic security needs of individuals.

ETHICS -- BACHMANN LIES: CLAIMS DEMOCRATS WON'T 'PASS THE TAX CREDIT FOR SOLAR AND WIND': During an interview with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) yesterday, right-wing radio host Laura Ingraham asserted that Congressional Democrats "are acting as the ultimate obstructionists" on energy policy. Bachmann agreed, saying that "this is mission accomplished for them" because they don't want to "increase American energy resources." Declaring that the Congressional Democrats are "so strange," Bachmann then claimed that they wouldn't "pass the tax credit for solar and wind," despite being "the big solar/wind people." But this claim is flatly false. On Wednesday, "for the fourth time this summer," Senate conservatives blocked action on legislation that would provide "tax credits to an array of renewable energy entrepreneurs." The blocked legislation would have extended "some $18 billion worth of renewable energy tax credits." In fact, when the House passed the Renewable Energy and Job Creation Act of 2008 in May, Bachmann voted against it, along with the majority of House Republicans. The bill was then filibustered by Senate Republicans in June. What's truly "so strange" is that Bachmann can act as an ex post facto advocate for legislation she actively opposed.

LABOR -- WAL-MART WARNS MANAGERS AGAINST PRO-UNION PROGRESSIVE POLICIES: Wal-Mart "is mobilizing its store managers and department supervisors around the country to warn that if Democrats win power in November, they'll likely change federal law to make it easier for workers to unionize companies -- including Wal-Mart." The Wall Street Journal reports that thousands of managers and department leaders "have been summoned to mandatory meetings" that warn against unionization and suggest that voting for a Democrat "would be tantamount to inviting unions in, according to Wal-Mart employees who attended" such meetings. Wal-Mart is primarily threatened by the Employee Free Choice Act, which would allow a majority of workers to agree to form a union, without needing the approval of the company, as is current law. The law would help even the playing field between the worker and the employer, who currently controls almost the entire unionization process. Employers frequently delay union elections by "months and even years," and management has "almost unlimited and mandatory access to employees, while union supporters have almost none." Wal-Mart has never been a friend to unions. In 2005, the Journal reported that Wal-Mart founder Thomas Coughlin may have been involved in antiunion activity, "including paying union staffers to tell him of pro-union workers in stores."

OVERSIGHT -- DEFENSE DEPARTMENT DEFIES CONGRESSIONAL SUBPOENA OF KEY SEXUAL ASSAULT PREVENTION OFFICIAL: Yesterday, the House Oversight Committee held a hearing on sexual assault in the military. During the hearing, Rep. Jane Harmen (D-CA) explained, "Women serving in the military today are more likely to be raped by a fellow soldier than be killed by enemy fire in Iraq." The committee invited and then subpoenaed the director of the Defense Department's Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office, Dr. Kaye Whitley, to testify. But Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense Michael Dominguez blocked her testimony, ordering her not to appear before the committee. Committee Chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA), with the support of ranking member Chris Shays (R-CT), threatened to hold both Dominguez and Whitley in contempt. Subcommittee Chairman Rep. John Tierney (D-MA) called Dominquez's decision "foolish" and kicked Dominguez out of the hearing. "We don't want to hear from you right now. I can tell you, we're more than a little bit upset with you...You're dismissed," he said. According to the Defense Department website, Whitley's office is the "the single point of accountability for the Department of Defense sexual assault policy." Is is unclear why Dominguez did not want Whitley to testify, since, as Tierney explained, "Whitley has testified in Congress before, in fact, before this very subcommittee two years ago, also on sexual assault in the military." Dominguez said no claim of executive privileged was invoked; the department simply chose to ignore the subpoena.

Bruce Ivins, a 62-year old highly-skilled biodefense researcher, "apparently committed suicide just as the Justice Department was about to file criminal charges against him in the anthrax mailings that traumatized the nation in the weeks" following 9/11. Glenn Greenwald has more.

"Republicans want to drive attention away" from the one-year anniversary today of the bridge collapse in Minnesota that killed 13 people because they don't want to "dampen" their convention in Minneapolis next month by "revisiting an old tragedy" that "spotlighted the nation’s crumbling bridges."

"Federal agents may take a traveler's laptop or other electronic device to an off-site location for an unspecified period of time without any suspicion of wrongdoing, as part of border search policies the Department of Homeland Security recently disclosed." DHS has "the ability to copy a lifetime of files" from a the laptop of any visitor -- including a U.S. citizen -- "and then examine those files at the government's leisure." (Take action here.)

"Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) faces growing pressure from within her Caucus" to bring off-shore drilling to the floor for a vote. "With the drilling issue paralyzing Congressional action on energy, freshman Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) said he and other Members have communicated to leadership that there needs to be a vote, and he predicted there would be one."

President Bush's new executive order revising rules for intelligence agencies expands the national intelligence director's powers. "House Republicans on the intelligence committee walked out of a Thursday morning briefing" by DNI Mike McConnell to protest the White House's pattern of disrespect for congressional oversight. "This president is making it impossible for Congress to do oversight of the intelligence community," said Rep. Peter Hoekstra (R-MI).

"A former senior American official" tells Time that the "U.S. imprisoned and interrogated one or more terrorist suspects" on the British-controlled island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean "in 2002 and possibly 2003." Former Bush counterterrorism czar Richard Clarke said he had witnessed discussions about "the possibility of using Diego Garcia" and that the official's claim is "entirely credible."

"The American economy expanded more slowly than expected from April to June, the government reported Thursday, while numbers for the last three months of 2007 were revised downward to show a contraction — the first official slide backward since the last recession in 2001." Many economists say "the data increased the likelihood that a recession began late last year."

And finally: The House transportation committee approved a ban on the passenger use of cell phones on domestic airliners yesterday. Explaining the need for the bill, Rep. James Oberstar (D-MN) complained, "My wife had to listen to a female passenger talk about her sex life the night before. … Who wants to listen to that? Certainly not when you're trapped on an airplane." But Rep. John Mica (R-FL) countered, "There are rude people who do rude things." To prove his point, Mica pulled out an iPod and began playing a rock song, "Dimension" by Wolfmother. The music filled the committee room as Mica strained to talk over it.

"Congress overwhelmingly approved an overhaul of the nation's higher education law on Thursday, adding dozens of provisions and programs to help families with soaring college costs."

THINK PROGRESS: Vice President Cheney considered proposal to dress up Navy SEALs as Iranians and shoot at them.

WONK ROOM: $236 per American driver: Big Oil's U.S. profits from the last year.

WASHINGTON INDEPENDENT: Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia is the most "activist" judge on the court while Justice Clarence Thomas is the most "partisan."

BALKINIZATION: In a "landmark decision," a federal judge finds that "there is no basis" for the Justice Department's argument that "close presidential advisers are absolutely immune from compelled congressional testimony."

CALIFORNIA: "Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger ordered the layoffs of thousands of state workers Thursday and steep pay cuts for most other state employees to ease California's budget crunch."

OHIO: "AEP Ohio is seeking state approval to increase electricity rates by roughly 15 percent in each of the next three years, a plan the company said is tied to the rising price of coal and a new state energy law."

NEW MEXICO: Vandals target artwork honoring Latin American immigrants.

"The surge [in Iraq] has achieved [success] in a central front — the central front of the war on terror against the enemies who attacked America on 9/11/01."
-- Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), 7/31/08

VERSUS

"A detailed Pentagon study confirms there was no direct link between late Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein and the Al-Qaeda network."
-- AFP, 3/13/08

Think Progress

Ending 'The War On Terror'

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