IRAQ
Five Years Of War

Today marks the fifth anniversary of the U.S. invasion of Iraq, a preventative war of choice whose purpose, according to President Bush, was "to disarm Iraq, to free its people, and to defend the world from grave danger." Five years later, it is clear there were no weapons of mass destruction to disarm in Iraq and no grave danger from which to defend. In 2006, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) concluded that the war in Iraq had become "the 'cause celebre' for jihadists, breeding a deep resentment of U.S. involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for the global jihadist movement" faster than the United States and its allies can reduce the threat. The 2007 NIE concluded that "al-Qaeda [had] reorganized to pre-9/11 strength," largely as a result of the United States turning its attention away from Afghanistan and Pakistan in order to focus on Iraq. Also, al Qaeda's association with insurgents in Iraq helped "energize the broader Sunni extremist community, raise resources, and...recruit and indoctrinate operatives." Far from making the United States safer, the Iraq war has made the world much more dangerous.

A FAILED RECONSTRUCTION: A recent World Health Organization and Iraqi health ministry report estimated that 151,000 people were killed between the start of the invasion on March 20, 2003 and June 2006. In a March 17 report, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said that millions of Iraqis are still deprived of clean water and medical care, describing Iraq's health care system as "now in worse shape than ever." Iraqis endure intense heat in the summer and freezing cold in the winter because of a lack of electricity, even though more than $6 billion, mostly in American money, has been devoted to improving supply. The New York Times reported that "typical daily peaks are around 4,500 megawatts." According to a recent report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, "that's only about 500 megawatts more than what it was shortly after the start of reconstruction five years ago -- before the completion of thousands of American-supported projects." Garbage collection is notoriously unreliable, with refuse often piling up "for days, sometimes weeks, emanating toxic fumes." In a new report, the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees stated that, five years after the U.S.-led invasion, Iraqis are still fleeing in large numbers. Iraqis topped the list of asylum seekers in industrialized countries for the second year running, accounting for more than 10 percent of the total with 45,200 applications last year. "It is important to bear in mind, however, that Iraqi asylum seekers in industrialized countries represent only one percent of the estimated 4.5 million Iraqis uprooted by the conflict," the report said. Amnesty International reports that Iraq continues to be "one of the most dangerous countries in the world, with hundreds of Iraqi civilians killed every month."

A FAILING POLITICAL RECONCILIATION: In the latest blow against progress toward political accommodation between Iraq's ethnic and sectarian factions, a conference to reconcile Iraq's political groups began to unravel even before it got under way on Tuesday, as members of the Sunni Iraqi Accordance Front said "they would not participate in the conference until Shiite lawmakers address their political demands." The Shiite bloc led by cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and some smaller groups also boycotted the conference, revealing the deep and persistent divisions between and within Iraq's main sects. Over the past few months, several legislative accomplishments that were first seen as signs of progress turned out to be much less favorable on closer inspection, or were simply reversed. In January, a de-Baathification reform law, initially "billed as the first significant political step forward in Iraq after months of deadlock," was "riddled with loopholes and caveats to the point that some Sunni and Shiite officials say it could actually exclude more former Baathists than it lets back in." In February, the passage of a package of three laws (addressing amnesty for detainees, budget allocations, and provincial powers) was hailed by conservatives as a significant political advance. Days later, the provincial powers law was struck down by Iraq's three-member presidency council, breaching the compromise that had enabled the passage of the three laws.

WAR ARCHITECTS STILL IN DENIAL: The individuals who devised and supported the Iraq war still refuse to admit error. President Bush insists that the war was worth the "high cost in lives and treasure." On separate surprise visits to Iraq this week, Vice President Dick Cheney and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) seemed oblivious to the tragedy that their policy had unleashed upon the people of Iraq. Cheney preposterously claimed that the Iraq war has been a "successful endeavor" and blithely "warned against losing the gains the surge has produced," even as Baghdad was again wracked by explosions. On the same day that a suicide bomber killed over forty people in the Shia shrine city of Kerbala, McCain repeated his mantra that "the surge is working." Here at home, the war architects frantically cast blame on each other, and even on the Iraqis themselves. American Enterprise Institute (AEI) scholar Richard Perle still maintains that invading Iraq was "the right decision," but blames Iraq proconsul L. Paul Bremer for "underestimat[ing] the task" of nation-building. Douglas Feith, the former director of the Pentagon's Office of Special Plans, has also blamed Bremer for "mishandling...the political transition" in Iraq. AEI analyst Danielle Pletka blamed the Iraqi people for not embracing the opportunity afforded them by the American invasion and occupation. Alas, Pletka laments, "there is no freedom gene."

A WAY FORWARD: The Iraq invasion has wrought a fractured, dysfunctional government, a disunified largely militia-controlled state closely allied with Iran to the east and in simmering conflict with Turkey to the north, an open-source training ground for terrorists and a cause around which global jihadists have rallied. American standing is at a low point in the Middle East and Arab world, with Arab democrats and reformers isolated and frustrated. It not enough to simply stay the course. The United States must reset its strategy by looking beyond the deteriorating situation in Iraq in order to counter the threat from global terrorist groups and ensure stability in the entire Middle East and Gulf region, using the credible promise of withdrawal from Iraq to encourage Iraqi leaders to come to a sustainable political accommodation. This is an essential first step in order to correct the tragic policy mistakes of the last years, of which the decision to invade Iraq is the most obvious and profound.

Under the Radar

MEDIA -- IN 2007, FOX NEWS FEATURED MOST CELEBRITY COVERAGE, FEWEST STORIES ON IRAQ WAR: On Monday, the Project for Excellence in Journalism (PEJ) put out its annual report on the "State of the News Media." While the 2008 presidential campaign and the debate over Iraq were overwhelmingly the top subjects of cable news, the networks still devoted a substantial amount of coverage to celebrity affairs. Of the cable networks, Fox News featured the most amount of celebrity coverage and the least amount of Iraq war coverage. The report notes, "Fox, in turn, spent less time on the war in Iraq than the others (10% vs. 18% on MSNBC and 16% on CNN). And it was more oriented to crime, celebrity and the media than its rivals (28% vs. 19% on MSNBC and 16% on CNN)." As The Progress Report highlighted in March 2007, three weeks after Anna Nicole Smith's death, Fox News and MSNBC still devoted more time to the late celebrity than to the Walter Reed scandal. Fox gave Anna Nicole roughly 12 times more coverage. Fox may not be ashamed of PEJ's latest findings. Last year, Fox News's John Gibson defended his celebrity coverage by accusing reporters -- such as CNN's Anderson Cooper -- of "news-guy snobbery." Gibson claimed that people were "a little weary" of war coverage and wanted "a little something else."

IRAQ -- MCCAIN REPEATEDLY CONFLATES IRAN AND AL QAEDA: Despite Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) frequent assertions that he could "best address a national security crisis" and that he has "the most experience...when it comes to foreign policy," yesterday he severely undermined this claim when he conflated Shiite Iran with Sunni al Qaeda. Speaking to reporters in Jordan, McCain said he was concerned about Iranian operatives "training" al Qaeda in Iran "and sending them back" to Iraq -- a claim he made at least twice during that press conference. Only after Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) whispered a correction in his ear did McCain correct himself to say he meant "extremists," not al Qaeda. He made the same assertion on Hugh Hewitt's right-wing radio show as well. Despite the fact that McCain repeated this fundamental error at least three times and only corrected himself at Lieberman's urging, McCain's campaign insisted McCain "misspoke and immediately corrected himself."

MEDIA -- REPORTERS LOSING INTEREST IN 'LAME DUCK' PRESIDENT BUSH: The Politico reports today that reporters on "the White House beat during these lame duck days" have become bored, with many "describ[ing] a scene where one might expect tumbleweeds lazily blowing across the finely manicured lawn on Pennsylvania Avenue." Reporters said the current presidential campaign "coupled with the minimalist agenda of an unpopular president has led to overall Bush fatigue that outranks the waning days of the Clinton administration." One correspondent said that Bush's "rhetoric is so exhausted. He rarely makes any news. It's rarely worth anyone's time to cover him like we used to." Another added, "[T]his president's long passed the point of getting any initiatives enacted." White House reporters are not the only ones tired of covering the Bush administration. Last year, the media has already started losing interest in Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as well, with her traveling press corps noticeably dwindling.

Think Fast

"At the outset of the Iraq war, the Bush administration predicted that it would cost $50 billion to $60 billion to oust Saddam Hussein, restore order and install a new government." Now, five years later, the Pentagon says the cost of the war is "roughly $600 billion and counting" while economist Joseph Stiglitz "pegs the long-term cost at more than $4 trillion," which he calls an "excessively conservative" estimate.

Marking the fifth anniversary of the Iraq war, President Bush will deliver a speech today at the Pentagon defending his decision to wage war. According to excerpts, Bush will say the war's "high cost in lives and treasure" has been "necessary" and that the war's successes are "undeniable."

71 percent: Americans who think "U.S. spending in Iraq is a reason for the nation's poor economy." According to the new CNN poll, just 36 percent of the American public believes the "situation in Iraq was worth going to war over -- down from 68 percent in March 2003, when the war began."

32 percent: The number of Americans who approve of President Bush, down from 34 last month. The new Reuters/Zogby poll also finds that only 19 percent believes the country is headed in the right direction.

Former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger, a surrogate for John McCain, told an audience that the religious right is "a serious problem." "On the Christian hard right, I live in Charlottesville now and I can't tell you I'm surrounded by it," Eagleburger said. "I must tell you we fought it there, fought hard against it. There's no question that in the Republican Party it is a serious problem."

David Brody writes, "There's a little whisper campaign out there among grassroots social conservatives who are concerned that John McCain may want to tamper a little with the language in the Republican Party platform when it comes to marriage." McCain has denied that he will try to change the platform.

Yesterday, the FBI disclosed that it has launched criminal investigations against 17 companies "in the fallout of the subprime mortgage collapse." Two Justice Department officials have confirmed that Countrywide Financial is one of the companies under investigation.

19 percent: The portion of Americans who "believe the country is headed in the right direction," according to a Reuters/Zogby poll released today. Pollster John Zogby says the recent poll, which measures the mood of the country, "was the first time all 10 of the measures used in the poll to take the temperature of the country were down."

And finally: On Monday, viewers of the Charlie Rose show were "stunned" to see the "normally composed Rose looking like he'd just been in a bar fight." He had a "very bad black eye and a bandage over part of his forehead." (Pictures here.) According to the show's producers, Rose tripped in a pothole while walking down the street. Carrying a new MacBook Air, he "made a quick (but ultimately flawed) decision while falling: sacrifice the face, protect the computer." He then "hit the pavement face first." The MacBook Air, however, is fine.

Good News

Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) are introducing legislation "aimed at stabilizing financial markets by helping as many as 2 million homeowners avoid foreclosure."

State Watch

MASSACHUSETTS: Big Dig and national credit crisis result in monthly debt payments of $2 million for state Turnpike Authority.

CALIFORNIA: Los Angeles and Long Beach ports unveil $19 million "plan to persuade shippers to burn cleaner fuel...a move expected to slash local air pollution by 11%."

IOWA: Bill would fortify sunshine laws after complaints about open-records laws doubled in last five years.

COLORADO: State rep introduces bill to create Colorado Stem Cells Cure Fund.

Blog Watch

THINK PROGRESS: Paul Bremer: Iraq war architects are "running away from their building."

WONK ROOM: Wildlife director traps employees in ethics catch-22.

THE BLOTTER: A federal judge gives the White House three days to comply with e-mail inquiry.

IGNITING REAL CHANGE: A call to pundits and politicians to "consider the implications" of the Iraq war "on the lives of women, youth and low-income families."

Daily Grill

"I have the most experience of any presidential candidate when it comes to foreign policy and advancing our national and economic security priorities around the globe."
-- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), 1/29/08

VERSUS

"Sen. John McCain... incorrectly asserted Tuesday that Iran is training and supplying al-Qaeda in Iraq, confusing the Sunni insurgent group with the Shiite extremists who U.S. officials believe are supported by their religious brethren in the neighboring country."
-- Washington Post, 3/19/08

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