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Think Progress

March 3, 2008
by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Ali Frick, and Benjamin Armbruster
ECONOMY

Credit Crunch

The economy is undergoing a "slowdown" according to President Bush, a "recession" according to 61 percent of Americans. Regardless of the name, 83 percent of Americans rate the economy as only fair or poor, "and almost two thirds are pessimistic now and about the future." One large source of economic stress is the credit crisis, which has spread from the subprime mortgage sector to the U.S. credit card market. "If America's $14 trillion economy is a high-powered engine, credit is the motor oil that helps it run smoothly. When the lubricant is in short supply, the economy -- like an engine -- is more prone to knocks and stalling." "The squeeze is reaching beyond Wall Street to Main Street, hitting everything from the availability of student loans to credit-card interest rates to the prices of municipal bonds in retirees' portfolios." Today, the Washington Post reports that college students will see higher costs for loans -- and "some students may be denied private loans entirely" at community and for-profit schools -- because of the credit crisis. Chairman of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke acknowledged last month that the credit crunch is fueling the economy's downturn. "More expensive and less available credit seems likely to continue to be a source of restraint on economic growth," he said.

CREDIT CARDS -- THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS: A new report by Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Christian Weller and Research Associate Tim Westrich details how a rise in credit card defaults could produce an economic fallout on par with the mortgage crisis of last year. Lenders have tightened access to credit in the mortgage market, "forc[ing] families to look elsewhere to borrow money to pay for ever more costly necessities," including health care and college education. "[C]onsumers who once relied on home equity to make ends meet are now increasingly relying on credit cards," Weller and Westrich write. As a result, credit card debt reached a record high of $790.2 billion last November. Approximately "35 million customers can only afford to make the minimum payment every month, which means it could take years for them to pay off their debt," the report notes. That debt is increasing rapidly. Between April 2006 and December 2007 -- the same period during which the housing market was collapsing -- inflation-adjusted credit card debt increased four times faster than between March 2001 and March 2006. Weller and Westrich point out that "lenders package credit card debt into securities" in a process similar to the securitization of subprime mortgages. As such, "increased credit card debt could ultimately translate into higher loan default and thus a liquidity crisis similar to that in the mortgage market."

OPAQUE AND UNFAIR LENDING: Despite these warning signs, credit card companies continue to aggressively target customers with less-than-perfect credit -- often the same victims of predatory subprime lending schemes. "Direct mail credit card offers to subprime customers in the United States jumped 41 percent in the first half of this year, compared with the first half in 2006," the Boston Globe reported. Travis Plunkett, legislative director of the Consumer Federation of America, said, "It's another sign that some credit card issuers are engaging in risky, irresponsible lending to vulnerable consumers." At the same time, "[c]ard issuers also are raising fees in anticipation of increased delinquencies as the economy slows. Industry-wide penalty fees rose to $18.1 billion last year from $17.1 billion a year earlier." Last month Bank of America "sent letters notifying some responsible cardholders that it would more than double their rates to as high as 28%, without giving an explanation for the increase."

POLICIES TO PROTECT BORROWERS: Such abusive practices have led policymakers to seek greater checks on credit card companies to protect consumers. The Center for American Progress issued a 2006 paper recommending an incentive-based, credit card safety rating system modeled after the New Car Assessment Program's five-star safety rating. Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) introduced a similar proposal, the Credit Card Safety Star Act, in December. Such a rating system would not preclude additional legislation that would eliminate other practices considered abusive or unfair. For example, Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D-NY) has also introduced a credit cardholders' Bill of Rights, which includes provisions requiring card companies to give cardholders 45 days notice before raising interest rates and prohibiting card companies from arbitrarily changing the terms of their contract with a cardholder. Another bill sponsored by Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) would prohibit card companies from charging interest on debt that i

UNDER THE RADAR

ECONOMY -- McCAIN CLUELESS ABOUT OWN SOCIAL SECURITY PLAN, PUTS INCORRECT INFO ON WEBSITE: In a Wall Street Journal interview today, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) appeared clueless about his own Social Security plan. In 2000, he supported President Bush's efforts to divert part of Social Security payroll taxes to fund private accounts. Asked about his current position, McCain said, "I'm totally in favor of personal savings accounts." On his website, however, McCain offers a different plan. He proposes "supplementing" the system with personally managed accounts, which, as the Wall Street Journal observed, would not be financed by diverting Social Security payroll taxes. McCain denied there was a change in his position. "I'll correct any policy paper that I've put out that might intimate that personal savings accounts are not a very important factor," he said. But his website has still not been changed to reflect his support for private accounts. The WSJ also noted that McCain is now distancing himself from the pledge not to raise taxes, saying his statement, "no new taxes," was not a firm commitment.

IRAQ -- CIVILIAN DEATHS ROSE BY 36 PERCENT IN FEBRUARY: While the Bush administration has consistently touted decreased casualties in Iraq in recent weeks as proof that new counterinsurgency tactics are working, Iraqi civilians are still living in a volatile environment. In fact, "violent civilian deaths in Iraq rose 36 percent in February from the previous month," according to Iraq's interior, defense, and health ministries. The rise from 466 violent civilian deaths in January to 633 in February "was the first increase after six consecutive months of falling casualty tolls." "February's casualty figures spiked after female bombers killed 99 people at two pet markets in Baghdad on February 2 and a suicide bomber killed 63 people returning from a Shi'ite religious ritual south of Baghdad on February 24."

ADMINISTRATION -- MUKASEY REFUSES TO ENFORCE CONTEMPT CITATIONS OF WHITE HOUSE AIDES: Last month, the House voted to recommend that former White House counsel Harriet Miers and chief of staff Joshua Bolten be held in contempt of Congress for their refusal to comply with subpoenas issued by the Judiciary Committee regarding the U.S. attorney scandal. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) requested a grand jury investigation last Thursday. Responding the next day, Attorney General Mike Mukasey "rejected referring the House's contempt citations against" Miers and Bolten, saying they had "committed no crime." Mukasey said the Department of Justice "will not bring the congressional contempt citations before a grand jury or take any other action to prosecute Mr. Bolten or Ms. Miers." In response, Pelosi issued a statement noting that House would enforce the contempt citations in civil court: "Anticipating this response from the Administration, the House has already provided authority for the Judiciary Committee to file a civil enforcement action in federal district court and the House shall do so promptly." 

IRAQ -- ROVE: IRAQ REDEPLOYMENT WOULD CAUSE OIL PRICES TO SKYROCKET TO $200 A BARREL: On Fox News Sunday yesterday, former White House adviser Karl Rove claimed that redeployment from Iraq would cause oil prices to shoot to $200 a barrel. "If we were to give up Iraq with the third largest oil reserves in the world to the control of an Al Qaida or to the control of Iran," said Rove, "don't you think $200 a barrel oil would have a cost to the American economy?" Rove offered no evidence to support his projection that leaving Iraq would cause oil prices to rise dramatically. But it is clear that occupying Iraq has hardly helped oil prices stay low. Last week, oil prices reached a record high of over $102 a barrel. On March 19, 2003 -- the day the Iraq war commenced -- oil was trading at $36 a barrel. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz recently noted in Vanity Fair that "the soaring price of oil is clearly related to the Iraq war." Rove's claim is also out of step with the American people, a majority of whom believes that the Iraq war is tied to the current economic downturn. A recent AP poll found that 68 percent of Americans say that redeploying from Iraq would help the economy.


THINK FAST

College students nationwide "will begin to see higher costs for loans this spring, while others will be turned away by banks altogether as the credit crisis roiling the U.S. economy spreads." Over the past decade, student debt levels more than doubled to $19,200.

On CNN yesterday, House Intelligence Chair Silvestre Reyes (D-TX) hinted that a deal is close on surveillance legislation and that it may give "phone companies the retroactive legal protections long sought by President Bush." "I have an open mind about that," said Reyes, referring to a Senate bill that includes "blanket immunity" for telecoms.

"President Bush and Senate leaders are signaling no compromise is in the works for nearly two dozen agency-level nominations, including four now-vacant Federal Election Commission seats that shuttered the campaign regulator indefinitely after the new year." The FEC nominations are held up by controversial nominee Hans Von Spakovsky, who is opposed by Democrats.

A Roll Call review of the Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense "showed a strong correlation between contributions and earmarks. All but two of the 15 panel members received campaign contributions from at least half of the private entities that received earmarks."

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "likes to present himself as the candidate of the 'Straight Talk Express' who does not pander to voters or change his positions." But the record shows that McCain has changed his mind on issues such as the Bush tax cuts, immigration, torture and abortion. 

Last Friday, McCain stated that "there's strong evidence" that thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative, is the reason for increased diagnoses of autism in the United States -- "a position in stark contrast with the view of the medical establishment." Kevin Drum writes, "It's just another indication that when it comes to anything outside of the few pet issues he cares about, McCain really can't be bothered to take an interest."

As oil prices climb to record highs, "steep gasoline prices and the weak economy are beginning to curb Americans' gas-guzzling ways. In the past six weeks, the nation's gasoline consumption has fallen by an average 1.1% from year-earlier levels, according to weekly government data."

Dmitry Medvedev won Russia's presidential election in a landslide, giving him a mandate to succeed Vladimir Putin. But a 22-member observer mission from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe cast doubt on the fairness of the vote, stating that there were "flaws" in the results.

The United States used precision missiles to strike a "known terrorist target" in southern Somalia, a U.S. military official said. But Somalian local elders in the town say that four civilians were killed.

And finally: Rep. Thelma Drake (R-VA) can't get enough of Angelina Jolie. Last week, Jolie wrote a Washington Post op-ed, declaring that the "surge" is working in Iraq. On Friday, Drake sent a letter to Armed Services Committee Chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO), asking him to bring Jolie back to the Hill to testify about what she saw in Iraq. She said that Jolie's testimony would provide "crucial insight."



GOOD NEWS

Many Christians are "going green for Lent," as religious environmentalism "has exploded along with awareness of human-made climate change."

STATE WATCH

MASSACHUSETTS: "In one sign that Massachusetts' healthcare initiative is succeeding, use of the 'free care pool' dropped by about 16 percent in the program's first year."

TEXAS: Only a small proportion of Katrina refugees in Texas are registered to vote in tomorrow's primary.

NEW YORK: State legislators push for a one-year moratorium on foreclosures.

BLOG WATCH

THINK PROGRESS: Former White House adviser Mary Matalin blames the media for Americans' economic insecurity.

POLITICAL ANIMAL: Why does the Bush administration care more than the telecoms about retroactive immunity?

MEDIA MATTERS: Despite paper's concern "about keeping women as newspaper readers," Washington Post essay calls women "kind of dim" and "the stupid sex."

DAILY GRILL

"No new taxes."
-- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), 2/19/08

VERSUS

"I'm not making a 'read my lips' statement in that I will not raise taxes."
-- McCain 3/3/08


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