A Precarious Situation
President Bush has repeatedly asserted that the "surge" is working. In January, he told an audience in "The surge is working. I know some don't want to admit that, and I understand." Speaking to the Conservative Political Action Conference in early February, Bush said, "We stood our ground -- and we're seeing results." The Washington Post's Tom Ricks gave a different assessment, stating recently, "The surge is working tactically, [but] failing strategically." Two developing stories in Iraq illustrate how precarious the situation remains. The first involves the Iraqi parliament's passing of legislation on three particularly contentious issues: national budget allocations, amnesty for Iraqi detainees, and provincial elections. The second involves today's decision by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Mahdi Army militia, to extend the six-month cease-fire he declared back in August -- a cease-fire that has been acknowledged by Gen. David Petraeus as one of the main reasons for the drop in violence in Baghdad.
AGREEING TO DISAGREE LATER: On Feb. 13, the Iraqi parliament passed three measures that conservatives are hailing as proof of the surge's success. Despite public claims of Iraqi unity, The New York Times wrote that "the parliamentary success was clouded because many of the most contentious details were simply postponed, raising the possibility that the accord could again break into rancorous factional disputes in future debates on the same issues." The negotiations were extremely contentious; earlier in the session, the speaker threatened to disband the legislature, and the measures had to be bundled together and passed in a single vote "because of mutual suspicion that if one was voted on separately and approved, the faction that wanted that most would renege on the rest." The Kurdish bloc held out for a budget agreement guaranteeing 17 percent of government revenue -- "most of it coming from oil" -- for the Kurds, with the caveat that this would be reconsidered for the 2009 budget. The Shiite majority parties were most concerned with mandating provincial elections later this year, which are expected to further entrench their majority. The Sunnis in Parliament insisted on the amnesty law for Iraqi detainees, as over 80 percent of Iraq's more than 40,000 detainees are Sunnis.George Washington University professor Marc Lynch said that "as with the deBaathification reform (which looked so promising on first blush and then not so much when the details emerged), it all depends on the details of the laws, the implementation, and the reception." Of the 18 benchmarks established for judging the surge's success, this legislation represents achievement of only the fourth.
BETTING ON SADR: Recent reports indicate that Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr that he originally declared in August 2007. Sadr has felt pressure from rank and file members of his Mahdi Army, who equate the cease-fire "with a loss of power and resources, believe the U.S. and ISCI are conspiring to weaken the movement and eagerly await Muqtada's permission to resume the fight." But Vali Nasr, author of The Shia Revival, believes Sadr has a long-term strategy. "The game in Iraq is not over," says Nasr. "[Sadr] has been beefing up his strength." Sadr has also been pumping up his religious credentials, studying in the Iranian seminary city of Qom in order to become a recognized religious authority. Once he achieves a higher clerical rank, Sadr will be more able to credibly challenge the Najaf establishment for leadership of Iraq.
RATIFYING MILITIA POWER: The cease-fire has clearly produced benefits for Sadr in Iraq. In exchange for restraining his followers, Sadr has seen his movement increasingly incorporated into U.S. strategy. In December, Petraeus thanked him "for helping...to reduce violent attacks in Iraq by 60 percent since June," calling Sadr and his movement "constructive partners in the way ahead." Petraeus also now uses "the honorific 'seyed' when referring to Sadr," indicating that he recognizes Sadr as a descendant of the Prophet Muhammad, "and has asked U.S. officers to do the same." By building his Baghdad security plan around Sadr's restraint, however, Petraeus has effectively ratified the sectarian cleansing of large portions of Baghdad by Sadr's followers, leaving Shiites in control of formerly Sunni neighborhoods and seeding resentments which promise to frustrate Iraqi sectarian reconciliation for years to come. Throughout Anbar Province and Baghdad, the United States has a strategy that has empowered local actors at the expense of a unified Iraqi state.
|
|
|
|
Facing public pressure, the Bush administration has announced plans to continue the site EconomicIndicators.gov, which provides easy access to aggregated economic data across government agencies.
MASSACHUSETTS:
Universal health insurance law covers more uninsured than expected.
CONNECTICUT:
"Federal environmental officials say Connecticut companies pumped out
slightly more toxic pollutants in 2006 than in 2005."
TEXAS:
State sees a "stunning increase" in early voting prior to the
upcoming primary
THINK
PROGRESS: MSNBC's Tucker Carlson: "I instinctively jump to the
defense of anyone whose private life is violated."
ALICUBLOG:
Conservative columnist Rod Dreher crudely disparages a new
bride for
wanting her wedding dress to reveal the tattoo on her back.
EZRA
KLEIN: National health care would save America money.
FIREDOGLAKE:
The union movement is taking strides to go green.
"I instinctively jump to the defense of anyone whose private
life is violated."
-- MSNBC's Tucker Carlson, 2/20/08
VERSUS
MATTHEWS: I see we're changing the subject again. Is the question
of their [the Clintons'] marriage an issue or not in this
campaign?
CARLSON: Of course it's an issue.
--MSNBC, 5/26/06
Topic Cloud
