International Relations -- Bush's Strongman Repudiated

February 19, 2008

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Ali Frick, and Benjamin Armbruster

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Bush's Strongman Repudiated

In "a tense nationwide vote" yesterday, "Pakistanis dealt a crushing defeat to President Pervez Musharraf in parliamentary elections." Though official results have yet to be released, early returns projected "significant victories" for the country's two leading opposition parties, and Musharraf's party has already conceded defeat. "Almost all the leading figures in the Pakistan Muslim League-Q, the party that has governed for the last five years under Mr. Musharraf, lost their seats" while "the two main opposition parties appeared to have swept the vote." But neither party is expected to win an outright majority, setting the stage for a coalition government. Following Musharraf's imposition of emergency rule in November and the assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in December, yesterday's elections were not expected to go smoothly due to security concerns and the weakened state of Pakistan's democratic institutions. With fear of violence prevalent, "voters did not turn out in large numbers" yesterday, but compared to expectations, the level of violence was relatively low as "ten people were killed and 70 injured around the country." Nonetheless, "the Election Commission of Pakistan declared the elections free and fair" and all the parties are "already coming to terms" with the results, which are being interpreted as "a repudiation of Mr. Musharraf as well as the Bush administration."

MUSHARRAF REBUKED: Musharraf, who came to power in an October 1999 military coup and was re-elected as president in October 2007, "has seen his standing plummet as the country has faced a determined insurgency by the Taliban and Al Qaeda, and a deteriorating economy." "Politicians and party workers from Mr. Musharraf's party said the vote was a protest against government policies and the rise in terrorism" in Pakistan while others note that Musharraf's "dismissal last year" of the Supreme Court's chief justice "was deeply unpopular with the voters." On state-run Pakistan Television yesterday, Musharraf announced that "everyone should accept the results. That includes myself." Depending on the makeup of the new government, Musharraf could face impeachment for imposing emergency rule last year, which included putting political opponents under house arrest. At least one leader -- ex-premier Nawaz Sharif, whose party will gain many seats in parliament -- "has been especially outspoken in demanding that Musharraf be removed and that the Supreme Court justices whom the president sacked late last year be returned to their posts." Asif Ali Zardari, Benazir Bhutto's widow and her successor as the leader of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), "has not ruled out working with Mr Musharraf," but other leaders in the party "have said that they cannot work with Mr Musharraf and will try to impeach him if they win a two-thirds majority."

BUSH'S BLIND SUPPORT: President Bush has long insisted that Musharraf is a "strong friend and ally" in the war on terror and "the spread of democracy and freedom." But the "billions of dollars and years of unconditional support" that the White House has given Musharraf placed too much focus on an individual leader while ignoring "a broader approach that seeks to support institutions and develop the entire country." As recently as last month, Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia Richard Boucher "told Congress he considered the Pakistani leader indispensable to American interests." "We have to have more than just a Musharraf policy," said Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) on Sunday as he arrived in Pakistan to observe to elections. The White House's unconditional support of the Pakistani president "often raised the hackles of Pakistanis," as newspapers across Pakistan "were filled with editorials that expressed despair about Washington's close relationship with the unpopular leader." Many Pakistanis "were irritated that the Bush administration chose to ignore Mr. Musharrafâ€™s dismissal in November of the Supreme Court chief justice" while continuing to praise him "as a valued partner in the effort against terrorism."

BILLIONS IN AID: Since 9/11, the Bush administration has "poured about $1 billion a year in military assistance into Pakistan." But the money has not always been used for what the White House intended. "An internal policy review" last year "found that money that was supposed to go to counter-terrorist initiatives to fight Al Qaeda and the Taliban was at times diverted to pay for weapons systems aimed at Pakistan's regional rival, India." American aid to Pakistan have largely been made "in the form of direct cash transfers" of $200 million annually to Musharraf's government and $100 million monthly to the military, which has given Pakistan "greater flexibility on how to use the money" while sacrificing "accountability" for America's investment. Following last year's review, the administration switched "how it provides some of its financial support to Pakistan, diverting the "annual $200 million cash payment to Pakistan's treasury to programs administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development." Such a change in strategy is a "positive sign" according to Center for American Progress Senior Fellow Brian Katulis, but the United States "must be careful how it exercises its leverage in Pakistan. Yesterday's elections are "a starting point for a new policy." The United States could make "a dramatic shift" in it's approach to Pakistan, which should include increased investment "in Pakistan's democratic institutions" and efforts to engage the nation as a whole rather than a single leader.

ECONOMY -- BUSH SAYS IRAQ WAR HAS 'NOTHING TO DO WITH ECONOMY': Yesterday on NBC's Today Show, President Bush denied any connection between the struggling economy and the $10 billion a month being spent on the Iraq war. When host Ann Curry asked Bush if he believed "spending on the war" had impacted the economy, Bush replied, "I don't think so." He added, "I think actually the spending in the war might help with jobs...because we're buying equipment and people are working." He blamed the economy's troubles solely on the housing market, saying the economy is "down because we built too many houses." But the national unemployment is going up, increasing 13.6 percent in seasonably adjusted terms from December 2006 to December 2007. Sixty-eight percent of the American public believes that redeployment from Iraq would fix the country's economic woes.

SUPREME COURT -- PROMINENT LEGAL GUILD CALLS FOR SCALIA'S RECUSAL IN TORTURE CASES: Last week, the National Lawyers Guild called on Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia to recuse himself from any future case that may come before the Court involving the use of torture as an interrogation technique. The demand came in response to an interview with the BBC in which Scalia said that in a hypothetical "ticking time-bomb" scenario, "it would be absurd to say that you can't stick something under the fingernails, smack them in the face." In an op-ed, Lawyers Guild president Marjorie Cohn wrote, "Scalia's remarks mean he has prejudged the issues in future cases in which the Constitution might dictate the suppression of evidence because of illegal police interrogation techniques, or the right to compensation of a person whose civil rights have been violated." Northwestern University law professor Steven Lubet agreed, saying, "It's extremely unusual for a justice to be so opinionated about a controversy that may well come before the court." The current demand for Scalia to recuse himself adds to the long list of instances in which he has been asked to step down from the bench for individual cases.

IRAQ -- LACK OF ARMORED VEHICLES COSTING MARINES THEIR LIVES: The AP reported last Friday that, according to a study written by a Marine Corps civilian official, "Hundreds of U.S. Marines have been killed or injured by roadside bombs in Iraq because Marine Corps bureaucrats refused an urgent request in 2005 from battlefield commanders for blast-resistant vehicles," known as mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles or, MRAPs. The study said that the delayed delivery of MRAPs to the battlefield resulted from "gross mismanagement" within the Marine Corps' ranks. While the study's author, Franz J. Gayl, recommended that the Marine Corp's inspector general conduct an inquiry to determine any culpability, Sens. Joe Biden (D-DE) and Kit Bond (R-MO), both of whom have, in the past, urged the Pentagon to send more MRAPs to Iraq, echoed Gayl's recommendation. Biden called for an "official investigation to figure out why this happened and to make sure it never happens again." Bond added that the government shouldn't have to "explain to the families of American troops that a cost effective solution capable of saving lives was not deployed because of bureaucratic delays or insufficient funds."

Due to "ailing" health, Cuban President Fidel Castro is stepping down, "ending one of the longest tenures as one of the most all-powerful communist heads of state in the world." "The United States will help the people of Cuba realize the blessings of liberty," President Bush said in response.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has scheduled pro forma sessions for Tuesday and Thursday "so that Bush cannot call Congress back into special session to take up the now-expired Protect America Act." The Senate will take similar action.

Fox News legal analyst Andrew Napolitano penned an op-ed in yesterday's Los Angeles Times arguing that the Protect America Act is unconstitutional. "The government should be required, as it was until FISA, to obtain a 4th Amendment warrant to conduct surveillance of anyone, American or not, in the U.S. or not," he wrote.

A McClatchy analysis finds that "jobless Americans are spending more time looking for work and that those who can't find work now make up a greater share of the unemployed." As of January, "almost one in five unemployed workers" had been jobless for six months or more.

Next week, the Senate is planning to vote on a cloture motion on Sen. Russ Feingold's (D-WI) bill "to set a timeline for withdrawing combat troops." They are also planning to take up a second Feingold bill, "which would require the Bush administration to develop strategies to limit repeated deployments of troops and defeat al-Qaida."

Nine of 10 current and former military officers say the war had stretched the military "dangerously thin," according to a survey conducted by Foreign Policy magazine and the Center for a New American Security. Sixty percent of the 3,400 officers said the military is weaker today than five years ago.

Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr "is expected to announce his decision in the next few days about whether to maintain the ceasefire he ordered six months ago. There has been pressure from the rank-and-file members of his militia to call off the truce."

And finally: Last week, "scores of Hill staffers" -- and a couple of senators -- snagged "all-star baseball pitcher Roger Clemens' coveted John Hancock last week." Yet none of these staffers or lawmakers is now confessing to receiving an autograph after reports that it may "be a violation of the Senate and House rules that ban gifts worth more than $50." A Clemens signature reportedly goes for about $75, and "a signed baseball can garner upwards of $450."

Scientists at Los Alamos National Laboratory "are proposing a concept, which they have patriotically named Green Freedom, for removing carbon dioxide from the air and turning it back into gasoline."

FLORIDA: Florida's State Board of Education will vote today on a proposal requiring Florida students to learn about evolution.

MISSOURI: State seeks to re-classify emergency contraception as "abortion-inducing."

ENVIRONMENT: Some Great Lakes states "have balked at an agreement that would keep outsiders from siphoning off the lakes' water."

THINK PROGRESS: Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol: It's "unbelievable" that Congress won't give President Bush "the benefit of the doubt" on spying.

TECHNOLOGY LIBERATION FRONT: House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-OH) lies about changes to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act since 9/11.

TOO HOT FOR TNR: Recently passed Iraqi laws "simply postponed" most of the "contentious details."

"Because Congress failed to act, it will be harder for our government to keep you safe from terrorist attack."
-- President Bush, 2/16/08, on the expiration of the Protect America Act

VERSUS

"Some of the [surveillance] authorities would carry over to the period they were established for one year. That would put us into the August, September time-frame...that's not the real issue."
-- Director of National Intelligence Mike McConnell, 2/16/08

Think Progress

Bush's Strongman Repudiated

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