AFGHANISTAN
The Central Front

A report released this week by the Afghanistan Study Group (ASG), an independent commission co-chaired by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones and former U.N. Ambassador Thomas Pickering, concluded that "Afghanistan stands at a crossroads" and is "at great risk of becoming 'the forgotten war'" because of a growing "anti-government insurgency" and "wavering" international support. The report stated that "the prospect of again losing significant parts of Afghanistan to the forces of Islamic extremists has moved from the improbable to the possible," warning that without a change in strategy, the country is at risk of becoming a "failed state." A Jan. 14 attack on what was thought to be a highly secure luxury hotel in Kabul served as a "sign that the Taliban may be gaining strength" in Afghanistan. Despite more than 50,000 U.S. and NATO troops in the country, "the Taliban has taken back control of vast rural areas during the past year and now has a foothold just outside Kabul." Echoing the Jones-Pickering report, a separate study on Afghanistan, also released on Jan. 30 and led by Jones, said that NATO forces in Afghanistan are at a "strategic stalemate" and are "not winning in Afghanistan." The report added that "urgent action" is needed to revamp NATO strategy there because Afghanistan "could become a failed state."

CHALLENGES FOR THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE: Beyond the security situation, the Washington Post recently reported that in Afghanistan, "NATO is a bundle of frayed nerves and tension over nearly every aspect of the conflict, including troop levels and missions, reconstruction, anti-narcotics efforts, and even counterinsurgency strategy." German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently told President Bush that Germany would increase efforts to stabilize northern Afghanistan but having German troops take on any combat roles "would spell political disaster for her conservative government." At the same time, the British military has been strained by its commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan and has "a higher percentage of its forces deployed worldwide than the United States." Their overstretched forces have difficulty maintaining conquered territory in Afghanistan long enough for reconstruction efforts to take hold. While Bush recently approved a U.S. troop increase in Afghanistan of about 3,200 Marines for a seven-month deployment beginning in March, more forces are needed to combat the rising tide of violence. Indeed, NATO's top commander, Gen. John Craddock, recently told the AP that "there is an increased requirement for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities" in Afghanistan. With much of the U.S. "eye-in-the-sky" capabilities tied up in Iraq, Craddock urged other NATO nations to "contribute needed sensors and other technologies." The United States is also asking NATO allies for more troops. After Bush announced the U.S. increase, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said, "As we're considering digging even deeper to make up for the shortfall in Afghanistan. .... [W]e would expect our allies in the fight to do the same."

 

CANADA THREATENS TO PULL OUT: The United States is not the only NATO country asking for help. Last December, Canadian Foreign Minister Maxime Bernier told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Canada's Afghan mandate expires in Feb. 2009. With increasing casualties and low public approval for Canada's involvement there, Bernier informed Rice that "it is not certain that Ottawa can sustain" their mission. In fact, a recent Canadian study recommended that the 2,500 strong Canadian military presence in volatile Kandahar should only remain there after Feb. 2009, on the condition that 1,000 additional NATO or allied soldiers are sent to reinforce their mission and that the government secure "new medium-lift helicopters and high-performance unmanned aerial vehicles" by that date. The report added that the recently announced U.S. troop increase in Afghanistan "is welcome but not, by itself, sufficient." Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper endorsed the commission's recommendations, emphasizing that if the conditions set out by the Manley commission are not met, "Canada's mission in Afghanistan will not be extended." Indeed, Harper himself described the bleak situation: "If NATO can't come through with that help, then I think, quite frankly, NATO's own reputation and future will be in grave jeopardy."

THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S FAILURES IN AFGHANISTAN: The Jones-Pickering report echoes a recent study by the Center for American Progress titled "The Forgotten Front." As American Progress senior fellow Larry Korb and senior policy analyst Caroline Wadhamsrecently noted, "Since the Iraq invasion almost five years ago, the Bush administration has put Afghanistan on the back burner. Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, summarized the administration's position perfectly in his congressional testimony in December. When asked why the United States was not doing more to deal with the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, the admiral said that in Iraq we do what we must but in Afghanistan, we only do what we can."

Under the Radar

CIVIL LIBERTIES -- NEW YORK TIMES REPORTER SUBPOENAED FOR BOOK ON CIA: New York Times reporter James Risen has been issued a subpoena in an attempt to force him to reveal confidential sources for State of War, Risen's 2006 book about the CIA. The chapter at issue asserted that "the C.I.A. had unsuccessfully tried, beginning in the Clinton administration, to infiltrate Iran's nuclear program" by employing a former Russian nuclear scientist to leak faulty blueprints. According to the book, "the initiative went awry when the scientist noticed the flaws and told the Iranians." Risen's publisher, Free Press, issued a statement condemning the subpoena, stating that "the ability to publish confidentially sourced information about our government's practices and policies is one of the bedrock principles of a free and open society." Risen and co-writer Eric Lichtblau received the 2006 Pulitzer Prize for national reporting for exposing the Bush administration's warrantless wiretapping program, a disclosure which the CIA claimed was "an unfathomable and sad disregard for U.S. national security and those who take life-threatening risks to ensure it."

RADICAL RIGHT -- RIGHT-WING CONVENTION BANS COULTER: At last year's Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), right-wing pundit Ann Coulter infamously used an anti-gay slur to refer to former North Carolina senator John Edwards. At the time, the American Conservative Union, which co-sponsors CPAC, not only refused to condemn Coulter's statement, but also stayed silent on whether or not she would be invited back for the next event. U.S. News reports that this year, CPAC organizers have decided to "cut her from the list of speakers at the February 7-9 conference expected to draw 6,000." The conservative Young America's Foundation (YAF), however, is disappointed in CPAC's decision and will host a speech by Coulter at the same conference venue as CPAC. "She's a powerhouse for young people and one major reason that CPAC is so successful," said Ron Robinson, president of YAF.

HOMELAND SECURITY -- U.S. MILITARY NOT PREPARED FOR A HOMELAND ATTACK: A new report by the Commission of the National Guard and Reserves "determined that 88 percent" of National Guard units are not prepared for a catastrophic attack on the country. The 400-page report "concludes that the nation 'does not have sufficient trained, ready forces available' to respond to a chemical, biological or nuclear weapons incident, 'an appalling gap that places the nation and its citizens at greater risk.'" Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, head of U.S. Northern Command, said about 4,000 Guard and Reserve troops would be trained over the next year to be "assigned to a three-tiered response force." Bush's escalation last spring has left the U.S. military overstretched. Earlier this week, Gen. David Petraeus "said the Pentagon wants to bring troops home quickly to reduce the strain on the armed services." Last fall, Army Chief of Staff George Casey said it would take "three or four years" for the military "to put ourselves back in balance" after the Iraq war.

Think Fast

President Bush's 2009 budget "will total more than $3 trillion, the first time that barrier has been broken." "The budget plan projects big increases in federal budget deficits, to about $400 billion for both fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2009." Bush's "trail of deficits and debt" will "sharply constrain his successor."

Two female suicide bombers struck separate pet markets in central Baghdad on Friday, killing at least 64 people and wounding dozens. The attacks were the deadliest in the Iraqi capital since the U.S. troop surge last spring.

A U.S. missile strike in Pakistan's northwestern tribal areas killed Abu Laith al-Libi, a top commander of al Qaeda who had been involved in planning attacks on U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan.

"Long lines, a shortage of poll workers and unprecedented numbers of mail-in ballots could delay vote counts in the biggest-ever Super Tuesday in American politics," a day on which voters in 24 states will cast ballots. 

President Bush signed a 15-day extension for a temporary surveillance law. The delay marked a partial concession to Senate Democrats who wanted to continue deliberations over whether to immunize telephone companies from lawsuits for helping the government conduct warrantless wiretaps.

Germany has rejected Defense Secretary Robert Gates's "urgent" request to send more troops to Afghanistan. Germany's response was in reply to an "unusually stern" letter from Gates last month, demanding combat troops, helicopters, and paratroopers.

And finally: Rambo is banned in Burma. Reuters reports, "Police in Myanmar have given DVD hawkers strict orders not to stock the new Rambo movie, which features a fictional Vietnam War veteran taking on the former Burma's ruling military junta." Nevertheless, pirated copies are widely available and people are reportedly "going crazy" for the movie's tagline, "Live for nothing, die for something."

Good News

"At the urging of a Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), President Bush's nominee to head the Internal Revenue Service has promised to consider hiring veterans of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars for jobs in the coming fiscal year."

State Watch

CALIFORNIA: Solar power is rising in California, "the product of billions of dollars in investment and mountains of enthusiasm."

LOUISIANA: Federal judge "grudgingly absolv[es] the Army Corps of Engineers of liability in the flooding of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina."

VIRGINIA: "Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D) predicted that many of what he called 'mean-spirited' proposals to crack down on illegal immigrants will not make it through the General Assembly this year."

Blog Watch

THINK PROGRESS: Vice President Dick Cheney pushes for telecom immunity: "We haven't violated anybody's civil liberties."

HUFFINGTON POST: Homeless veterans protest Fox News's Bill O'Reilly.

INSIDE CABLE NEWS: Karl Rove is reportedly joining Fox News as a contributor and will participate in the network's Super Tuesday coverage.

MEDIA MATTERS: On Glenn Beck's CNN show, Minuteman founder Jim Gilchrist compares the National Council of La Raza to the KKK.

Daily Grill

"I'm not sure which government does their budget work better -- ours or theirs [Iraq's]."
-- President Bush, 1/31/08

VERSUS

"President Bush's budget for 2009, which will be released Monday, will total more than $3 trillion, the first time that barrier has been broken. ... The budget plan projects big increases in federal budget deficits, to about $400 billion."
-- Wall Street Journal, 2/1/08