AFGHANISTAN
The Central Front
A report released this week by the Afghanistan Study Group (ASG), an independent commission co-chaired by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Jones and former U.N. Ambassador Thomas Pickering, concluded that "Afghanistan stands at a crossroads" and is "at great risk of becoming 'the forgotten war'" because of a growing "anti-government insurgency" and "wavering" international support. The report stated that "the prospect of again losing significant parts of Afghanistan to the forces of Islamic extremists has moved from the improbable to the possible," warning that without a change in strategy, the country is at risk of becoming a "failed state." A Jan. 14 attack on what was thought to be a highly secure luxury hotel in Kabul served as a "sign that the Taliban may be gaining strength" in Afghanistan. Despite more than 50,000 U.S. and NATO troops in the country, "the Taliban has taken back control of vast rural areas during the past year and now has a foothold just outside Kabul." Echoing the Jones-Pickering report, a separate study on Afghanistan, also released on Jan. 30 and led by Jones, said that NATO forces in Afghanistan are at a "strategic stalemate" and are "not winning in Afghanistan." The report added that "urgent action" is needed to revamp NATO strategy there because Afghanistan "could become a failed state."
CHALLENGES FOR THE ATLANTIC ALLIANCE: Beyond the security situation, the Washington Post recently reported that in Afghanistan, "
NATO is a bundle of frayed nerves and tension over nearly every aspect of the conflict, including troop levels and missions, reconstruction, anti-narcotics efforts, and even counterinsurgency strategy." German Chancellor Angela Merkel recently told President Bush that Germany would increase efforts to stabilize northern Afghanistan but having German troops take on any combat roles "would spell political disaster for her conservative government." At the same time, the British military has been strained by its commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan and has "a higher percentage of its forces deployed worldwide than the United States." Their overstretched forces have difficulty maintaining conquered territory in Afghanistan long enough for reconstruction efforts to take hold. While Bush recently approved a U.S. troop increase in Afghanistan of about 3,200 Marines for a seven-month deployment beginning in March, more forces are needed to combat the rising tide of violence. Indeed, NATO's top commander, Gen. John Craddock, recently told the AP that "there is an increased requirement for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities" in Afghanistan. With much of the U.S. "eye-in-the-sky" capabilities tied up in Iraq, Craddock urged other NATO nations to "contribute needed sensors and other technologies." The United States is also asking NATO allies for more troops. After Bush announced the U.S. increase, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said, "As we're considering digging even deeper to make up for the shortfall in Afghanistan. .... [W]e would expect our allies in the fight to do the same."
CANADA THREATENS TO PULL OUT: The United States is not the only NATO country asking for help. Last December, Canadian Foreign Minister Maxime Bernier told Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice that Canada's Afghan mandate expires in Feb. 2009. With increasing casualties and low public approval for Canada's involvement there, Bernier informed Rice that "it is not certain that Ottawa can sustain" their mission. In fact, a recent Canadian study recommended that the 2,500 strong Canadian military presence in volatile Kandahar should only remain there after Feb. 2009, on the condition that 1,000 additional NATO or allied soldiers are sent to reinforce their mission and that the government secure "new medium-lift helicopters and high-performance unmanned aerial vehicles" by that date. The report added that the recently announced U.S. troop increase in Afghanistan "is welcome but not, by itself, sufficient." Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper endorsed the commission's recommendations, emphasizing that if the conditions set out by the Manley commission are not met, "Canada's mission in Afghanistan will not be extended." Indeed, Harper himself described the bleak situation: "If NATO can't come through with that help, then I think, quite frankly, NATO's own reputation and future will be in grave jeopardy."
THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION'S FAILURES IN AFGHANISTAN: The Jones-Pickering report echoes a recent study by the Center for American Progress titled "The Forgotten Front." As American Progress senior fellow Larry Korb and senior policy analyst Caroline Wadhamsrecently noted, "Since the Iraq invasion almost five years ago, the Bush administration has put Afghanistan on the back burner. Admiral Michael Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, summarized the administration's position perfectly in his congressional testimony in December. When asked why the United States was not doing more to deal with the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, the admiral said that in Iraq we do what we must but in Afghanistan, we only do what we can."
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