Iraq
The 'Surge One Year Later

In an address to the nation one year ago today, President Bush outlined a "new strategy" for Iraq that would entail an increase in U.S. security operations with the goal of giving the Iraqi government "the breathing space it needs" to "make reconciliation possible." Though violence in Iraq diminished in the tail end of 2007, the year since Bush's announcement of his escalation strategy has been the deadliest of the war for the U.S. military. Unfortunately, the hard fought gains of American troops have not been sufficiently accompanied by "progress on any of the key political benchmarks so critical to bringing Iraq together and producing lasting stability." In October, the Government Accountability Office assessed that of the eight political benchmarks set forth by Bush and Congress, the Iraqi government had only "met one legislative benchmark and partially met another." In his speech, Bush warned that "America will hold the Iraqi government to the benchmarks." But now that the goals have been largely unmet, the administration is downplaying their importance. In December, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, "I no longer think of them so much as benchmarks as the pieces that they are now presenting as what they need to do over the next year." Earlier this week, however, Bush claimed that "the Iraqis are beginning to see political progress that is matching the dramatic security gains for the past year." But if anything, "the political situation has gotten worse."

KEY MEASURES NOT MET: Last year, Bush promised that "Iraq will pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis." This has not happened. Instead, "the oil bill has not even had a first reading in parliament, a year after it was drafted." Bush also declared that "the government will reform de-Baathification laws, and establish a fair process for considering amendments to Iraq's constitution." Neither of these goals have been met either. Though the de-Baathification law "came up for discussion," it "was met with angry protests from Shiite lawmakers." Last month, the head of the parliament's constitutional review committee requested a three-month delay for revising the document -- "the fourth time the target date for revision of the document, approved in a referendum in 2005, has been deferred." The delay of the constitutional revision has hindered progress on other issues. Bush also said that Iraqis would "hold provincial elections" last year, but they have not come to pass. "New provincial elections have been postponed pending agreement on a law setting out the relationship between national and regional governments." Currently, there are "no provincial elections in sight." 

'BITTERLY DIVIDED' SECTARIAN LINES: In the effort to decrease violence in Iraq, a key U.S. tactic has been to "to empower and arm Sunni Arab tribes and factions, provided they pledge to resist outside militants like al-Qaeda." Though this strategy -- which was precipitated by the decision of Sunni tribes to turn against al Qaeda -- has been effective in the short-term, "this approach threatens to further split Iraq and exacerbate sectarian tensions" in the long run. The new Sunni leaders whom the United States is empowering "are decidedly against Iraq's U.S.-backed, Shiite-led government, which is wary of the Awakening movement's growing influence, viewing it as a potential threat when U.S. troops withdraw." "When the U.S. military suggested that the Shiite-led Iraqi government incorporate the Sunni fighters -- many of them veterans of anti-U.S. combat -- into their own security forces, the Iraqis balked." Even U.S. Ambassador Ryan Crocker admits that tensions between Sunnis and Shiites have hardened on the national level, saying recently that "nothing good is coming down the line." The Center for American Progress's Brian Katulis and Peter Juul write today that "Iraq at the start of 2008 is even more bitterly divided along ethnic and sectarian lines than it was at the start of 2007, increasing the possibility that the recent declines in violence may be a temporary lull."

HAWKS DECLARES 'VICTORY': Despite the fact that political reconciliation has not occurred and even Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, cautions that "security gains are fragile and still reversible," the right wing is already beginning to declare victory. In November, after a trip to Iraq, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) began declaring that "we've succeeded militarily."  His traveling companion, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) agreed, bellowing that "we are winning" because "we have made progress" in "one of the most remarkable turnarounds in modern military history." In a Wall Street Journal op-ed this morning, the two senators continue their pronouncements of success, declaring that "the surge worked" and "we have at last begun to see the contours" of "victory." Conservative pundits have been even more explicit in their declarations of victory. In December, right-wing radio host Hugh Hewitt wrote that "victory is a wonderful thing, and [U.S. soldiers] have brought Iraq and its allies victory." Heritage Foundation fellow Tony Blankley wrote in November that we are on the doorstep of "a genuine, old-fashioned victory in the Iraq War."

Under the Radar

TORTURE -- JUDGE REJECTS  SEPARATE INQUIRTY INTO CIA TAPE DESTRUCTION: U.S. District Judge Henry Kennedy decided yesterday to not open a separate inquiry on the CIA's destruction of tapes depicting the harsh interrogations of al Qaeda suspects. Though the tapes were destroyed "five months after Kennedy's 2005 order that all evidence relating to the abuse of detainees at Guantanamo Bay be preserved," Kennedy claimed that the earlier ruling did not apply because "the tapes concerned interrogations which took place before the suspects were transferred there." The destruction of the tapes, which showed waterboarding and other "enhanced interrogation" methods, is already the subject of investigations by Congress and the CIA, as well as a Department of Justice criminal probe. Kennedy was "influenced by the assurances" of the Justice Department that its inquiry would "follow the facts wherever they may lead." The ruling was a victory for the Bush administration, which had "urged the courts not to wade into a politically charged issue." Attorneys for the Guantanamo detainees found it "not surprising that Judge Kennedy would take the Justice Department at its word" and said that trusting the administration to perform a thorough investigation was a "classic case of the fox guarding the henhouse."

JUSTICE -- DOJ OPENS INQUIRY INTO NO-BID CONTRACT FOR ASHCROFT: The Department of Justice's Criminal Division has opened an internal inquiry into a multi-million-dollar, no-bid contract awarded by New Jersey U.S. attorney Chris Christie to former attorney general John Ashcroft. Christie awarded the contract for a federal monitor position, worth as much as $52 million,last fall, but it only recently came to the attention of the Justice Department. Christie said he chose Ashcroft "because he trusted him" and insisted that the contract -- awarded to monitor a $311 million settlement among manufacturing companies -- "will be a real bargain at the end of the day." As Blue Jersey notes, Ashcroft was Christie's former boss and may have helped get him the U.S. Attorney job. "[Christie's] office has made a significant dent in the massive problem of public corruption in our state, but also has made a significant dent in the non-partisan image of the US Attorney's office," the website noted. In November, Rep. Frank Pallone (D-NJ) wrote to Christie saying he was "troubled" by reports of the contract, telling Christie that he should have hired a third party "to remove even the appearance of impropriety that is so easily created when such a large amount of money is being directed to a former employer or colleague."

IRAQ -- WORLD HEALTH ORGANIZATION: 150,000 IRAQIS KILLED DURING IRAQ WAR. Roughly "150,000 Iraqis died violently in the 40 months after the US-led invasion in 2003, according to an estimate derived from the most comprehensive survey yet of mortality in post-war Iraq." Civilian death tolls in Iraq have been a source of much controversy, with reports ranging from under 50,000 to over 600,000. The new World Health Organization report "suggests violent deaths increased 17-fold when compared with the years immediately preceding the invasion," with "95 percent degree of statistical certainty that between 104,000 and 223,000 civilians had died" during the war due to violence-related causes. Furthermore, The New York Times notes that the "extraordinarily dangerous security situation prevented surveyors from visiting about 11 percent of the areas that the researchers had intended to visit." "We mourn the deaths of all people in Iraq," a White House spokeswoman said in response to the study.

Think Fast

President Bush predicted today that there "will be a signed peace treaty" to turn the West Bank and Gaza Strip into a Palestinian state "by the time I leave office." USA Today, however, notes, "Despite Bush's upbeat assessment, there was little to suggest concrete progress during his second day in the Middle East."

In May 2005, a Blackwater helicopter in Iraq dropped CS gas, "a riot-control substance the American military in Iraq can use only under the strictest conditions," on a crowded checkpoint in Baghdad. "But the same tight controls apparently did not apply to Blackwater at the time of the incident."

Ron Paul will be permitted to appear in tonight's Fox News debate in South Carolina. "Fox apparently has changed its policy of excluding Paul from debates after backlash resulting from barring Paul from a forum in New Hampshire just two days before the primary."

Attorneys for Jose Rodriguez, the CIA official who reportedly ordered the destruction of the torture tapes, have told Congress that their client won't testify on Jan. 16 "without a promise of immunity."

$4,100: The pay hike that members of Congress will receive in 2008, boosting their salaries to $169,300.

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair will be joining JPMorgan Chase as an advisor, the bank said in a statement, likely earning over $1 million per year. Since resigning last summer, Blair has also joined the lucrative speaking circuit, "matching the earning power of President Bill Clinton."

Home heating costs soared "5.4 cents over the past week to a record $3.40 a gallon. ...The national heating oil price was up 98 cents from a year ago" and marked "the fourth week in a row that heating oil hit a record."

"The Supreme Court appeared unmoved yesterday by arguments that an Indiana law requiring voters to present photo identification imposes an unconstitutional burden." "The justices' questioning indicated that a majority did not accept the challengers' basic argument -- that voter-impersonation fraud is not a problem."

And finally: On Sunday, former senator Mike Gravel spoke at New Hampshire.s prep school Phillips Exeter Academy. "We've all got addictions," Gravel said to the students. "Anyone in here not taking any drugs?" Looks. Laughter. Chuckles. "Tylenol, aspirin, we're all druggies! ... I'm on painkillers!" He then added, "I'm sure that a lot of you have tripped out on alcohol. Well, it's a lot safer to do it on marijuana."

Good News

"A federal panel of judges granted San Francisco the right on Wednesday to put in place a key part of its universal health care program as legal arguments about the first-in-the-nation plan continue."

State Watch

COLORADO: "Colorado State University has indefinitely suspended business operations with a company named in an investigation of sweatshop abuses by an international human rights group."

OKLAHOMA: Businesses ache from the state's new anti-immigration law.

MISSOURI: Lawsuit alleges Gov. Matt Blunt's (R) top aides "ordered all departments in the administration to regularly delete e-mails so potentially damaging messages wouldn't be available to the public."

Blog Watch

THINK PROGRESS: Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson contradicted by his former company, Goldman Sachs, on economic recession.

FAITH IN PUBLIC LIFE: New Hampshire exit polls pigeonhole evangelical Christians as conservatives again.

DAILY KOS: The long history of MSNBC's Chris Matthews's on-air sexist remarks.

Daily Grill

"[T]he economy's going to continue to grow."
-- Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, 1/8/08

VERSUS

"The latest data suggest that recession has now arrived, or will very shortly."
-- Goldman Sachs, 1/9/08, Paulson's former employer

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