The 'Surge One Year Later
In an
address to the nation one year
ago today, President Bush outlined a
"new strategy" for Iraq that would entail an increase in U.S. security
operations with the goal of giving the Iraqi government "the breathing
space it needs" to "make reconciliation possible." Though violence in
Iraq diminished
in the tail end of 2007, the year since Bush's announcement of his
escalation strategy has been the
deadliest of the war for the
U.S. military. Unfortunately, the hard
fought gains of American troops have not been
sufficiently accompanied by "progress on any of the key
political benchmarks
so critical to bringing Iraq together
and producing lasting
stability." In October, the Government Accountability Office assessed
that of the eight political benchmarks set forth by Bush and
Congress, the Iraqi government had only "met
one legislative
benchmark and partially met another."
In his speech, Bush warned
that "America
will hold
the Iraqi government to the benchmarks."
But now that the goals
have
been largely unmet, the administration is downplaying their importance.
In December, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said, "I
no longer think of them so much as benchmarks
as the pieces that
they
are now presenting as what they need to do over the next year." Earlier
this week, however, Bush claimed
that "the Iraqis are beginning
to see political progress that is matching the dramatic security gains
for
the past year." But if anything, "the
political situation has
gotten worse."
KEY
MEASURES NOT MET: Last
year, Bush promised that "Iraq
will pass
legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis."
This has not
happened. Instead, "the oil bill has not
even had a first reading in parliament,
a year after it was
drafted." Bush also declared that "the government will reform
de-Baathification
laws, and establish a fair process for considering amendments
to
Iraq's
constitution." Neither of these goals have been met either. Though the
de-Baathification law "came up for discussion," it "was met
with angry
protests from Shiite lawmakers."
Last month, the head of the
parliament's constitutional review committee requested
a three-month delay for revising the document
-- "the fourth time
the target date for revision of the document, approved in a referendum
in 2005, has been deferred." The delay of the constitutional
revision has hindered progress on other issues. Bush also said that
Iraqis would "hold
provincial elections" last year,
but they have not come to pass.
"New provincial
elections have been postponed
pending agreement on a law
setting out the relationship between national and regional
governments." Currently, there are "no provincial elections in
sight."
'BITTERLY
DIVIDED' SECTARIAN LINES: In
the effort to decrease violence in Iraq, a key U.S. tactic has been to
"to empower
and arm Sunni Arab tribes and factions,
provided they pledge to
resist outside militants like al-Qaeda." Though this strategy -- which
was precipitated
by the decision of Sunni tribes
to turn against al Qaeda -- has
been effective in the short-term, "this approach threatens to
further split
Iraq and exacerbate sectarian tensions"
in the long run. The new
Sunni leaders whom the United States is empowering "are decidedly
against Iraq's U.S.-backed, Shiite-led government,
which
is wary of the Awakening movement's growing influence, viewing it as a
potential threat when U.S. troops withdraw." "When the U.S. military
suggested that the Shiite-led Iraqi government
incorporate the Sunni fighters -- many of them veterans of anti-U.S.
combat -- into their own security forces, the
Iraqis balked." Even U.S.
Ambassador Ryan Crocker admits that
tensions between Sunnis and Shiites have hardened on the
national
level, saying recently that "nothing
good is coming down the line."
The Center for American Progress's
Brian Katulis and Peter Juul write today that "
HAWKS
DECLARES 'VICTORY':
Despite the fact that political reconciliation has not occurred and
even Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, cautions that
"security
gains are fragile and still reversible,"
the right wing is
already beginning to declare victory. In November, after a trip to
Iraq, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) began declaring that "we've
succeeded militarily."
His traveling companion, Sen. Joe
Lieberman (I-CT) agreed, bellowing that "we
are
winning" because "we have made
progress" in "one of the most
remarkable turnarounds in modern military history." In a Wall Street
Journal op-ed this morning, the two senators continue their
pronouncements of success, declaring that "the
surge worked" and "we have at
last begun to see the contours"
of "victory." Conservative pundits have been even more explicit in
their declarations of victory. In December, right-wing radio host Hugh
Hewitt wrote that "victory
is a wonderful thing, and [U.S. soldiers] have brought Iraq and its
allies victory." Heritage
Foundation fellow Tony Blankley
wrote in November that we are on the doorstep of "a
genuine, old-fashioned victory in the Iraq War."
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