Iran -- The Case For Diplomatic Engagement

December 5, 2007

by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, and Ali Frick

IRAN

The Case For Diplomatic Engagement

A new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released Monday concluded that "in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." The report states that prior to 2003, Iran was "working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons" and is reportedly still enriching uranium for civilian uses, but has halted an active nuclear program. Certainly, Iran is hardly a benign nation, as it continues to back Hezbollah in Lebanon, for example, but the NIE states that the nation is "unlikely to achieve" the capability to produce a nuclear weapon "until after 2015." The NIE contrasts with the intelligence community's 2005 judgment that "Iran currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons," a "product of a surge in clandestine intelligence-gathering in Iran as well as radical changes in the way the intelligence community analyzes information" after the massive intelligence failures before the Iraq war. In fact, the 2005 judgment "was also written by some of the same team that had produced key parts of the flawed Iraq estimate." The latest NIE "presents a far more nuanced picture of both the nuclear program and the Iranian government's intentions than previous estimates, directly contradicting the one-dimensional portrait painted by arch conservatives, including many in the White House," concluded Joseph Cirinicione and Andrew Grotto of the Center for American Progress. While the administration has pursued a diplomatic approach thus far, the NIE makes a the case for tougher diplomatic pressure with Iran, as the nuclear program was "halted primarily in response to international pressure."

RENEWED DIPLOMATIC SURGE: In the wake of the new NIE, the White House has a chance to make a rejuvenated push for carrots-and-sticks diplomacy with Iran. After years of tense diplomatic standoff between the United States and Iran, Ephraim Halevy of Israel's Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations recommended further engagement: "Saudi Arabia and Iran recently held political talks. The two countries are sworn enemies, as Saudi Arabia perceives Iran -- rightly so -- as a real threat, yet they found the way to sit and talk, and so should we." Brookings Institution analyst Bruce Reidel urged that the United States consider Iran in a regional context: the White House "now and in 2009 must decide not only how it wishes to deal with a nuclear threat in Iran but also what it says and does with Israel about Iran." Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) urged a "top-to-bottom review of his Iran policy and a diplomatic surge to advance U.S. interests with regard to Iran. Bush should announce that his Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense are prepared to meet anytime, anywhere with their Iranian counterparts to conduct vigorous diplomacy to advance U.S. interests and address the challenges of Iran."

CONSERVATIVE SLANDER: Conservatives who desire a military solution to Iran's nuclear ambitions have gone on a full-scale assault to disparage the intelligence community in the wake of the NIE. Yesterday, former U.N. ambassador John Bolton called for a congressional investigation into the "politicized" intelligence community. Neoconservative "godfather" Norman Podhoretz wrote a vitriolic conspiracy theory, accusing the intelligence community of deliberately "leaking material calculated to undermine George W. Bush." American Enterprise Institute's Michael Ledeen called the NIE "blatant unprofessionalism." These Iran war hawks, who have been warning that Iran is close to acquiring a nuclear weapon for months, seem to be outraged that the new, more accurate intelligence gathering does not provide fodder for their warmongering. President Bush declared yesterday that Iran remains "dangerous" and that "nothing has changed."

WHAT DID BUSH KNOW?: The new NIE was reportedly completed a year ago but blocked by the White House. When the NIE was released on Monday, National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley said Bush was briefed on its findings "in the last few months." But despite knowing otherwise, the White House falsely warned that Iran was trying to "build a nuclear weapon" that could lead to "World War III." Bush maintained that he was not told to avoid this rhetoric, but this contradicts Hadley, who said Bush "was basically told: stand down" by the intelligence community. White House officials are obfuscating on what they knew and when they knew it because the answer has the potential to further damage the credibility of what they have asserted about Iran in the past few months. Following these revelations, VoteVets called for an congressional investigation into the Bush administration for warning of a false Iran threat despite knowing the key findings of the NIE.

ADMINISTRATION -- GAY AMBASSADOR RESIGNS OVER STATE DEPARTMENT'S DISCRIMINATION POLICIES: Appointed by President Bush in 2001 to be Ambassador to Romania, Michael Guest was the first publicly gay man to be confirmed by the Senate to serve as a U.S. ambassador. Guest retired recently, and at his retirement ceremony, "he did what few people do -- displayed uncommon courage and threw a rhetorical hand-grenade into his own party," revealing that he resigned in protest over the administration's discriminatory policies. Although Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was not present, Guest took her to "to task." "For the past three years, I've urged the Secretary and her senior management team to redress policies that discriminate against gay and lesbian employees," said Guest. "Absolutely nothing has resulted from this." Gay partners, unlike heterosexual spouses, "are not entitled to State Department-provided security training, free medical care at overseas posts, guaranteed evacuation in case of a medical emergency, transportation to overseas posts, or special living allowances when foreign service officers are assigned to places like Iraq, where diplomatic families are not permitted." "This is not about gay rights. ... It's about equal treatment of all employees, all of whom have the same service requirements, the same contractual requirements," said Guest.

HUMAN RIGHTS -- BUSH ON SAUDI RAPE CASE: I 'DON'T REMEMBER' IF I BROUGHT IT UP WITH KING ABDULLAH: Yesterday, CNN's Ed Henry pointedly asked President Bush why he hasn't used his "influence" to "do something" about the 19-year old Saudi woman who was the victim of a brutal gang rape and later sentenced to 200 lashes. The Saudi court blamed her for being an "adulteress who invited the attack." Bush refused to answer Henry's question, simply stating that King Abdullah "knows our position loud and clear." He said he recently spoke to King Abdullah "about the Middle Eastern peace," but isn't sure if he mentioned the Saudi case. "I don't remember if that subject came up," said Bush. Despite the President's strident rhetoric supporting global human rights, the administration has so far refused to condemn the Saudi government and push it to lift the sentence. When asked about the case last month, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said only that the situation is "very discouraging and outrageous. There is an appeals process and we hope that the verdict changes." State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said that the administration was "astonished," but had "nothing else to offer."

ETHICS -- STATE DEPARTMENT AWARDED BONUSES TO STAFF OVERSEEING BLACKWATER: Internal State Department cables obtained by TPMmuckraker show that the Department "has slated two Diplomatic Security officials who oversee private-security contractors guarding U.S. diplomats in Iraq and Afghanistan for salary bonuses." The bonuses, which range from $10,000 to $15,000, recognize the "outstanding performance" of two key deputies, Kevin Barry and Justine Sincavage, who "directly oversaw" Blackwater USA security operations. In October, just a month after the Sept. 16 shootings that left at least 17 Iraqis dead, the State Department quietly promoted Barry and Sincavage; earlier that same week, their boss, Ambassador Richard Griffin, stepped down over the Blackwater shooting controversy. House Oversight Committee chairman Henry Waxman (D-CA) said that it was hard not to come to the conclusion "that the State Department is acting as Blackwater's enabler." A new agreement signed yesterday by Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker outlines contractor operations in Iraq, including when armed guards may use force in self-defense, but it does not address "the legal framework to prosecute any State Department contractors who violate the law."

The faulty 2005 National Intelligence Estimate that said Iran was racing to develop nuclear weapons was "written by some of the same team that had produced key parts of the flawed Iraq estimate." The "starkly different view of Iran's nuclear program that emerged from U.S. spy agencies this week" drew lessons from the "intelligence debacle over supposed Iraqi weapons of mass destruction."

"Confidential Arkansas state government records, including letters from these women, obtained by the Huffington Post," reveal that, as Arkansas governor, Mike Huckabee pushed for the release of convicted rapist Wayne Dumond despite being warned that the convict would strike again. After being released, Dumond raped and murdered Carol Sue Shields.

The "ex-chief of staff to former Republican Rep. Curt Weldon of Pennsylvania was charged Tuesday with allegedly using his wife" to accept $19,000 in kickbacks to "help a consulting firm get federal funding."

A new campaign ad from Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) claims that immigrants coming into the United States are "pushing drugs, raping kids, and destroying lives." He adds that these "tactics of vicious Central American gangs" are coming into the United States because of "gutless politicians."

Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker "have agreed on the details governing the operations of Blackwater and other private security contractors" in Iraq. Though the agreement improves oversight of the contractors, it does not address "the legal framework to prosecute any State Department contractors who violate the law."

Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE), the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said President Bush's claim of not having previously learned of the National Intelligence Estimate's findings is "unbelievable." "I refuse to believe that," he added. "If that's true, he has the most incompetent staff in modern American history, and he's one of the most incompetent presidents in modern American history."

President Bush has announced he will make the first visit to Israel of his presidency in January. Some Israeli leaders have expressed doubts about the new National Intelligence Estimate, arguing that it is incorrect and will hurt diplomatic efforts against Iran.

The Iraqi government yesterday "urged some refugees not to go back to their homes yet, saying the country was unprepared to accommodate their return." "The reality is that we cannot handle a huge influx of people," said Abdul Samad al-Sultan, the minister of displacement and migration.

And finally: Missing from Monday's "black-tie White House holiday ball for all three branches of government" was Vice President Cheney, who skipped the gala for "his favorite pastime: hunting." Supreme Court Justice and former Cheney hunting partner Antonin Scalia did attend the party, and reportedly "regaled some partygoers with stories of his hunting exploits."

"A new $35 million solar energy research center will team with five New York universities to solve solar-power technology issues."

MASSACHUSETTS: State panel votes "to press insurers to hold premium increases to 5 percent next year for unsubsidized plans sold across the state."

ENVIRONMENT: "Across the United States, the number of severe rainfalls and heavy snows has grown significantly in the last half-century, with the greatest increases in New England and the Middle Atlantic region."

JUSTICE: "Black Americans are 10 times more likely to be imprisoned for illegal drug offenses than whites, even though both groups use and sell drugs at the same rate."

THINK PROGRESS: Fox News defends "Muslim hater" Michael Savage, says he is "very supportive of "Muslims and Islam."

TPM MUCKRAKER: The State Department gave bonuses to staff overseeing Blackwater.

TV NEWSER: Starting in March, CNN's Lou Dobbs will bring his anti-immigrant message to a daily three-hour radio show.

DAILY KOS: Time magazine protected Joe Klein from congressional pushback over his faulty FISA reporting.

"The classified version of this National Intelligence Estimate was briefed to the President last Wednesday, November 28, and has been delivered to relevant congressional committees this morning."
-- National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley, 12/3/07

VERSUS

"I'm told that [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Olmert had a private discussion with Bush about it during Annapolis -- before Annapolis [on Nov. 26]. Bush briefed him about it."
-- The New Yorker's Seymour Hersh, 12/4/07

Think Progress

The Case For Diplomatic Engagement

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