IRAQ
Declaration Of 'Enduring' Presence

On Monday, President Bush and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki signed a non-binding "Declaration of Principles for a Long-Term Relationship of Cooperation and Friendship" that will set the parameters for negotiating an "enduring" political, economic, cultural, and security relationship between the United States and Iraq. In the agreement, the two heads of state agreed to "extend the mandate of the Multi-National Force-Iraq (MNF-I) under Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter" for one final year, which will give the two countries "another year to negotiate our bilateral arrangement" that will address "issues such as what mission U.S. forces in Iraq will pursue, whether they will establish permanent bases, and what kind of immunity, if any, should be granted to private security contractors." The statement envisions that by the end of President Bush's term, Iraq will be removed from its Chapter 7 U.N. designation "as a threat to international peace and security," which it has been under since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990. The underlying deal of the agreement, according to "two senior officials," is "a long-term troop presence in Iraq and preferential treatment for American investments in return for an American guarantee of long-term security including defense against internal coups." The "shape and size" of the long-term commitment of troops is yet to be determined, according to White House war czar Gen. Doug Lute, but it will be "a key part of the negotiations" that occur over the next year.

PERMANENT BASES?: In the security section of the agreement, the United States commits in concept to help "deter foreign aggression against Iraq" as well as "combat all terrorist groups, at the forefront of which is Al-Qaeda, Saddamists, and all other outlaw groups regardless of affiliation." The White House will not say definitively whether such a security guarantee will require permanent bases for American troops. In a press briefing on Monday, Lute said that bases are "another dimension of continuing U.S. support to the government of Iraq, and will certainly be a key item for negotiation next year." In June, Bush administration officials told The New York Times that they envision "maintaining three or four major bases in the country." Maliki's administration has given unclear and at times conflicting accounts of his position on permanent bases. Haidar Abadi, a Shiite parliament member who serves as an adviser to al-Maliki, told Tribune Newspapers that "no military bases will be offered for long terms like in South Korea," but in a conference call with reporters, Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh, refused to rule out the possibility of bases, saying only that it "is going to be discussed with the political parties." Iraq's National Security Adviser Mowaffak Al-Rubaie has previously told the White House that there should be "no military bases for Iraq."

WHO NEEDS CONGRESS?: According to Lute, the bilateral arrangement that will be worked out over the next year is not intended to "lead to the status of a formal treaty," but will establish more of a status of forces agreement (SOFA), which is "the basic document for garrisoning U.S. forces on foreign soil." "We don't anticipate now that these negotiations will lead to the status of a formal treaty which would then bring us to formal negotiations or formal inputs from the Congress," said Lute. If the Bush administration wants "to commit the United States to the long-term security of Iraq without a word of discussion with Congress" through a status of forces agreement, then it will be in accord with "historical practice," according to Peggy McGuinness, a former State Department official and current law professor at the University of Missouri, because "a SOFA is usually a purely executive agreement." The agreement's lack of congressional input was blasted by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's (D-NV) office, who said that "President Bush is now trying to unilaterally negotiate an agreement with Iraq on security -- an area [where] the President has absolutely zero credibility." The situation is quite different, however, in Iraq. The Iraqi constitution requires that the Iraqi parliament ratify "international treaties and agreements by a two-thirds majority." The approval of the agreement by Iraq's parliament is in no way guaranteed, considering that in May, 144 out of 275 parliamentarians signed a petition calling for a phased withdrawal of U.S. forces. In fact, the agreement is already drawing criticism from various sections of the Iraqi parliament.

POLITICAL RECONCILIATION?: In his press conference on Monday, Lute said that he is "confident that" the agreement "will actually contribute to" political "reconciliation in the long run." Lute says the agreement "will cause different sects inside the Iraqi political structure not to have to hedge their bet in a go-it-alone-like setting" because "they'll be able to bet on the reliable partnership of the United States." Lute's optimistic assessment of the political persuasiveness of a long-term U.S. presence in Iraq is contradicted somewhat by the opposition the agreement is already facing. According to correspondents for the BBC, the prospect that "US investors benefiting from preferential treatment could earn huge profits from Iraq's vast oil reserves" is "causing widespread resentment among Iraqis." Both Sunni and Shia politicians have said that they worry the agreement could lead to "U.S. interference for years to come." One leading Iraqi politician, Saleh Mutlaq, who heads the smaller of two Sunni blocs in parliament, said that his constituency will view the deal as "a U.S. imposition" and that a timetable for withdrawal is needed instead. In fact, contrary to what the Bush administration claims, a date certain for redeployment of troops out of Iraq is more likely the needed "leverage to advance a political settlement between Iraq's warring factions."

Under the Radar

ETHICS -- KATRINA LAWYER RELATED TO TRENT LOTT INDICTED FOR BRIBERY: Prominent Mississippi trial lawyer Richard "Dickie" Scruggs, who has fought insurance companies over payments for damage caused by Hurricane Katrina, was indicted yesterday on charges of bribery. Scruggs is the brother-in-law of Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS), who recently announced he would retire before the end of the year. The indictment accuses Scruggs of using an associate, Timothy Balducci, to bribe Mississippi Judge Henry Lackey to secure a favorable ruling in a lawyers' fees dispute. The 13-page indictment quotes Balducci telling Lackey about Scruggs: "[H]e and I, um, how shall I say, for over the last five or six years there, there are bodies buried that ... he and I know...where [they] are, and my trust in his, mine in him and his in mine, in me, I am sure are the same." According to the indictment, Balducci made three cash payments to Lackey between Sept. 27 and Nov. 1, 2007, telling Scruggs's son Zach, "We paid for this ruling; let's be sure it says what we want it to say."

IRAQ -- McCAIN, LIEBERMAN IGNORE GENERALS, DECLARE VICTORY IN IRAQ: This month, while violence has dropped in Iraq, military commanders and other Iraq experts have been hesitant to declare victory, saying instead that the "positive" momentum is "not yet irreversible" and Iraq is "going nowhere" in "political terms." But Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT), who traveled to Iraq for the Thanksgiving holiday, have been much less cautious in their public statements. On Sunday, McCain said that "we've succeeded militarily" in Iraq. A day later, Lieberman appeared on Fox News, confidently bellowing that "we are winning" because "we have made progress" in "one of the most remarkable turnarounds in modern military history." In reality, the situation is still grim. With more than a month left, 2007 is already "the deadliest year of the war for United States troops" yet. "Unlike US estimates, Iraqi statistics do not show a drop in the level of violence in the Baghdad area." In the past two days alone, at least 35 "people were killed or found dead" across the country, underscoring Iraq's fragile state.

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS -- IRAQ REJECTED U.S. INVITATION TO ATTEND MIDDLE EAST PEACE CONFERENCE: During his first term, President Bush repeatedly promised that an invasion of Iraq would trigger the rise of democracy in the Middle East. "The establishment of a free Iraq at the heart of the Middle East will be a watershed event in the global democratic revolution," he said in a speech on Nov. 6, 2003. That vision hasn't come to fruition. The Bush administration has even had to lower its expectations for political success in Iraq. It is no longer aiming for "reconciliation" between Iraq's sectarian groups, instead going for "accommodation." Not only is Iraq not inspiring democracy around the Middle East, but officials are too "busy" repairing their country to participate in the rest of Bush's "freedom agenda." During yesterday's press briefing, White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said that while Iraqi officials were invited to attend the Bush administration's Middle East peace conference in Annapolis, MD, this week, they "decided not to come" because they "have a lot of issues on their plate." Labid Abawi, Undersecretary for Political Affairs in the Iraqi foreign ministry, confirmed that the "reasons" for Iraq's absence had to do with "the busy schedule of the officials concerned."

Think Fast

Juan Cole writes that at last night's Republican presidential debate, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) blamed the "rise of Hitler on Ron Paul." "John McCain equated those Americans who want to stop militarily occupying Iraq with Hitler-enablers. He actually said that, saying that it was 'isolationism' of a sort that allowed Hitler to come to power." Watch it.

"Foreclosure filings have nearly doubled from a year ago and more people could lose their homes in 2008, according to a report released Thursday. In October, 224,451 foreclosure filings were reported nationwide, up 94 percent from October 2006."

Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) said he plans to introduce legislation "that would rewrite portions of the bankruptcy code. His package will include language that would change the treatment of mortgage debt to help struggling property owners hold on to their homes."

Congress is nearing agreement on an energy bill "that would boost fuel efficiency standards for vehicles and require vast increases in the use of biofuels." Previous provisions in the bill, such as a requirement for utilities to use minimum amounts of renewable fuels and a rollback of the oil industry's share of a tax break for manufacturers, seemed unlikely to be included.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced yesterday that ret. General James Jones, "a former NATO commander and Marine Corps commandant, will become a special U.S. envoy for Middle East security as part of a push for peace between Israel and the Palestinian Authority."

Nearly 3,000 families will be forced out of FEMA trailers by next May when FEMA plans to "close all the trailer camps it runs for victims" of Hurricane Katrina. The trailers have been found to contain dangerous levels of formaldehyde.

The union representing Broadway stagehands and the league representing the theaters' owners and producers "announced a settlement last night, bringing an end to a strike that had shuttered most of Broadway for 19 days."

And finally: Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) mom, Roberta, is 95 years old, but was only 91 in 2003 when she was ticketed for driving 112 mph, according to a new interview with People magazine. "It's so dumb! I got a ticket for driving 112 miles per hour, signed my name, and went on my way." Also in the interview, Meghan, McCain's daughter, confirms that she does her dad's make-up. "I have his exact Casper the Ghost paleness, so I know what looks good," she states.

Good News

"Obesity rates in American women have leveled off and stayed steady since 1999, a long enough time for researchers to say the plateau appears to be real. And, they say, there are hints that obesity rates may be leveling off for men, too."

State Watch

FLORIDA: New report predicts that "unchecked carbon emissions worldwide would cost Florida 5 percent of its economic output by 2100."

MINNESOTA: Violent crime has significantly dropped in Minneapolis.

ENVIRONMENT: Twelve states sue the Environmental Protection Agency for weakening regulations that required businesses and industries to report the toxic chemicals they use.

Blog Watch

THINK PROGRESS: CNN rejects 5,000 YouTube questions submitted by the public to give airtime to right-wing activist Grover Norquist.

TV NEWSER: Two weeks before resigning, President Bush's economic adviser Al Hubbard told Fox Business Channel that he was "very happy where I am."

MEDIA MATTERS: On Fox News, Pat Buchanan claims "America [is] committing suicide" while "Asian, African and Latin American children come to inherit the estate."

TPM ELECTION CENTRAL: Another source confirms that Mitt Romney lied about the context of his anti-Muslim comments in Las Vegas.

Daily Grill

"We have had troops in South Korea for 60 years and nobody minds."
- Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), 6/4/07

VERSUS

PBS HOST CHARLIE ROSE: Do you think that this Korea, South Korea is an analogy of where Iraq might be ... in terms of an American presence over the next, say, 20, 25 years, that we will have a significant amount of troops there?
MCCAIN: I don't think so.
-- McCain, 11/27/07