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Think Progress

November 26, 2007
by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, and Ali Frick
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Australia Takes A Progressive Turn

This weekend, Australians went to the polls and delivered an emphatic victory for Labor leader Kevin Rudd, while handing the party of conservative Bush ally John Howard its "worst election defeat in its 63-year history." Howard "suffered the additional ignominy of losing his own constituency seat" in addition to the prime minister's seat, the first time since 1929 that an Australian prime minister has been voted out of parliament. Rudd, a Chinese-speaking former diplomat who made combating global warming, strengthening workers' rights, and redeploying from Iraq key priorities in his campaign, "swings Australia toward the political left after almost 12 years of conservative rule." The incoming prime minister has wasted no time implementing his new vision for Australia. Yesterday, he convened a meeting with government officials to discuss the mechanics of signing onto the Kyoto pact on global warming, and he announced that he will attend a U.N. climate change conference in Bali next month. Rudd soon plans to begin negotiations with the Bush administration over the withdrawal of Australia's 500 troops from Iraq. "Today Australia looks to the future," Rudd said. "Today the Australian people have decided that we as a nation will move forward."

BUSHWHACKED:
President Bush, who lauded the outgoing prime minister as a "man of steel," lost one of his "most steadfast allies" in Howard. The Bush administration had sought to influence the Australian elections with press offensives declaring the Iraq escalation a success, hoping that the reports would bolster Howard's campaign. For his part, Howard had interceded on Bush's behalf prior to the 2004 U.S. presidential elections, claiming a Bush reelection was needed in order to "stay and finish the job" in Iraq. In February of this year, Howard inserted himself into U.S. domestic politics again by spouting this smear: "If I was running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008, and pray, as many times as possible, for a victory not only for [Barack] Obama, but also for the Democrats." In a 2003 speech delivered to the Australian parliament, Howard claimed history had proven wrong those critics of Bush who "assaulted his judgment, and called into question his ability to lead the U.S. in this very, very difficult conflict." History will instead deliver a very different message than the one Howard predicted.

COALITION OF THE DEFEATED: Like Britain's Tony Blair, Italy's Silvio Berlusconi, and Spain's Jose Maria Aznar before him, John Howard suffered greatly from his decision to participate in Bush's "coalition of the willing." His full-throated support for the Iraq war hurt him domestically. More than 60 percent of Australians want forces out of Iraq within a year, and Rudd pledged that Australian troops would leave by mid-2008 after consultations with the United States and the United Kingdom. Analysts noted that Bush "was a little more isolated in the world Sunday" after the loss of his close Australian ally.

CLIMATE CHANGE DENIAL LOSING STEAM: For many years, Howard was one of the world's foremost climate deniers, tag-teaming with the Bush administration to remain the only major industrialized nations to stay out of the international agreement to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Until a few months ago when Howard moderated his climate change rhetoric for political reason, he and his ministers frequently "pooh-poohed the climate-change doomsayers." When former vice president Al Gore traveled to Australia in September to deliver a speech on the climate crisis, Howard prohibited his party members from attending the event. With Australia mired in the midst of the worst drought the country has faced in a thousand years, Howard's climate change denial put him in a political position isolated from his countrymen. The majority of Australians viewed climate change as the number one external threat to the country, and Rudd delivered what Australia wanted to hear. "I am determined to make Australia part of the global climate change solution -- not just part of the global climate change problem," Rudd said during his campaign.

UNDER THE RADAR

CONGRESS -- SENATE MINORITY WHIP TRENT LOTT TO RESIGN BY THE END OF THE YEAR: Sen. Trent Lott (R-MS) is reportedly informing close allies that he plans to resign his Senate seat before the end of the year. Lott has "scheduled two news conferences in his home state later in the day," the AP reports. "No reason for Lott's resignation was given, but according to a congressional official, there is nothing amiss with Lott's health. The senator has 'other opportunities' he plans to pursue, the official said, without elaborating." Regarding those "other opportunities," there is "speculation is that a quick departure immunizes Lott against tougher restrictions in a new lobbying law that takes effect at the end of the year. That law would require senators to wait two-years before entering the lucrative world of lobbying Congress." Because Lott's term expires in 2012, his resignation would trigger a special election for a replacement to serve the remainder of his term. Formerly Senate Majority Leader, Lott was forced to step down from that position in 2002 after he hailed the segregationist platform of former senator Strom Thurmond. Lott regained a leadership post after the 2006 midterm elections. "If he resigns, Lott would become the sixth Republican senator to announce they were stepping down this election cycle." 

IRAQ -- IRAQI GOVERNMENT INFLATES RATES OF RETURNING REFUGEES: The right wing has recently been insisting that reports of Iraqi refugees returning to the country are a result of Iraq's "improving security situation." But the New York Times writes today, "Under intense pressure to show results after months of political stalemate, the government has continued to publicize figures that exaggerate the movement back to Iraq and Iraqis' confidence that the current lull in violence can be sustained." Counts of returning refugees have included not only returning refugees, but any Iraqis crossing the border, such as "Iraqi employees of the New York Times who have visited relatives in Syria." A U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) survey of 110 Iraqi families returning from Syria found that only 14 percent were returning because of improved security in Iraq; most were forced to return for financial reasons or because of visa restrictions. Moreover, the UNHCR "does not believe that the time has come to promote, organize or encourage returns" to Iraq, as security there "remains volatile and unpredictable."

ENVIRONMENT -- NATURAL DISASTERS QUADRUPLED IN PAST TWO DECADES: "More than four times the number of natural disasters are occurring now than did two decades ago," said concludes a new Oxfam report that "largely blamed global warming." "The world suffered about 120 natural disasters per year in the early 1980s, which compared with the current figure of about 500 per year. ... The number of people affected by extreme natural disasters, meanwhile, has surged by almost 70 percent, from 174 million a year between 1985 to 1994, to 254 million people a year between 1995 to 2004, Oxfam said. Floods and wind-storms have increased from 60 events in 1980 to 240 last year, with flooding itself up six-fold." Climate change is already causing major shifts in weather patterns. A recent drought in the Southeast, the intensity of the California wildfires, and the ferocity of hurricanes have all been linked to global warming. In its most recent report, the Nobel-Prize winning International Panel on Climate Change warned that the effects of manmade global warming are "becoming evident already."


THINK FAST

Seven years into President Bush's term, the administration is today hosting a Middle East conference. Bush has never visited Israel as president, and has made just four visits to the region -- three times to Iraq. In contrast, President Clinton "traveled to the Middle East seven times, all but one visit focused on the peace process in one form or another."

Leading military officials say they hope that "the next major assessment [of the Iraq war] early next year would not place as much emphasis on the views of Gen. David H. Petraeus," in an attempt to avoid "relentless focus on the opinion of a single commander."

Former Treasury secretary Larry Summers today warns in a Financial Times op-ed that even if "necessary changes in policy are implemented, the odds now favour a US recession that slows growth significantly on a global basis." There is also the potential that "adverse impacts will be felt for the rest of this decade and beyond."

Demonstrating how private security companies "operate in a lawless void in Iraq," the Washington Post has revealed that "guards employed by Unity Resources Group" were involved in a "previously undisclosed" shooting in Baghdad in June.

"The Northern Hemisphere is the warmest this year since record-keeping started 127 years ago, according to the National Climatic Data Center."

"Saudi Arabia's Justice Ministry said a girl who it sentenced to jail time and flogging after being gang raped by seven men was an adulteress who invited the attack because at the time she was partially dressed in a parked car with her lover." The Bush administration has refused to condemn the Saudi court's ruling.

And finally: Last week was Black Friday, but it's doubtful that most Americans bought their true loves the gifts in the carol "The Twelve Days of Christmas." It would now cost "$78,100 to buy the 364 items, from a single partridge in a pear tree to the 12 drummers drumming, repeatedly on each day as the song suggests." The price "is up 4 percent from $75,122 last year."



GOOD NEWS

Sens. Arlen Specter (R-PA), Edward Kennedy (D-MA), and others "are working on legislation that would direct federal judges to review the president's state secrets claims," instead of just accepting them outright and "dismissing cases on the government's word."

STATE WATCH

ILLINOIS: Chicago "has decided to retrofit its alleys with environmentally sustainable road-building materials," one of the "most ambitious public street makeover plans in the country."

NEW YORK: State closes a "loophole" in rent regulations "that would have led to sharp rent increases for thousands of tenants."

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
: The first statistics ever amassed on HIV in Washington, D.C., reveal "a modern epidemic."

BLOG WATCH

THINK PROGRESS: Memo to the New York Post: the Bush administration was warned about 9/11.

EDITOR & PUBLISHER
: Fiasco author: "Don't celebrate turnaround in Iraq just yet."

PANDAGON: Conservative columnist Michael Medved joins "intelligent design" think tank, the Discovery Institute, as a "senior fellow."

GLENN GREENWALD: Time's Joe Klein continues to mislead about the FISA fight in Congress.

DAILY GRILL

"President Bush has made the advance of women's human rights a global policy priority."
-- First Lady Laura Bush, 3/8/05

VERSUS

In "another wave of violence that's gone largely unreported lately...[w]omen have become targets in a campaign of brutal violence" in Iraq.
-- NBC News, 11/23/07


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