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Think Progress

November 2, 2007
by Faiz Shakir, Amanda Terkel, Satyam Khanna, Matt Corley, Jeremy Richmond, and Ali Frick
IRAQ

Drifting From Redeployment

With President Bush determined to run out the clock and hand off his failed Iraq policies to his successor, progressives have been playing into the strategy by drifting away from their central principle that a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq best serves America's interests. A new Center for American Progress Action Fund strategy memo by John Podesta, Brian Katulis, and Lawrence Korb, warns that heading into 2008, progressives are at risk of "drifting themselves into offering only a vague and muddled vision" for the future course in Iraq. With casualty rates declining in Iraq, progressives have lapsed into complacency, losing sight of the fact that Bush's course is further than ever from achieving the strategic goal of national reconciliation. Instead, "progressives must provide a clear alternative to counter the Bush policy of strategic drift -- one that takes back control of America's security interests."

'SURGE' FAILS AT PRIMARY AIMS: Bush's escalation strategy has been unable to attain its primary goal of reducing violence to "help make reconciliation possible." While the administration has been trumpeting a trend of decreasing violence, Iraqi government figures obtained yesterday reveal that the "number of Iraqis killed in insurgent and sectarian attacks rose in October," illustrating how the administration is pushing claims that it is gaining "momentum" in Iraq while ignoring the pervasive volatility there. Although levels of violence are down from "pre-surge" levels, "there might be fewer attacks because you have ethnically cleansed neighborhoods," according to the Government Accountability Office. A recent report by the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction stated, "Despite reduced violence [since pre-surge levels], officials are pessimistic that lasting reconciliation is occurring" in Baghdad and surrounding provinces. Earlier this month, "several top Iraqi leaders say they have lost faith" in the prospect of reconciliation.

LOSING SIGHT OF REDEPLOYMENT: After Bush and his allies in Congress obstructed progressives' attempts to redeploy troops from Iraq, progressives "have drifted away from clear calls for redeployment and toward academic proposals and vague positions about what to do." This "strategic drift" is being abetted by leading "foreign policy thinkers" -- many of whom were wrong about going to war and wrong about how to deal with the war's first four years. Some progressive candidates have also defaulted to "strategic drift," wavering on whether they would redeploy all troops out by 2013. Others have slipped toward advocating proposals that focus on tactical measures, such as training Iraq's security forces or addressing the spillover effects of Iraq's internal conflicts on the region. Last month's Senate vote on a resolution suggesting a 'soft partition' model of Iraq is yet another sign of muddle and drift. Ultimately, "none of these proposals cut to the heart of the national security threats posed by strategic drift -- that the open-ended commitment of U.S. troops to Iraq is making Americans less safe and not resolving Iraq's internal conflicts."

RIGHT WING DISTRACTS WITH IRAN: The administration and the right wing have been escalating rhetoric on Iran, talking up World War III and directly threatening military action. Conservatives are sounding the war drums against Iran because they believe "that they fare well politically when they play to fear rather than reason." While conservatives try "to divert attention from Iraq," progressives need to keep the focus on redeployment. With nearly 170,000 troops in Iraq, a broken military, and potentially $2.4 trillion spent in public funds, a prolonged presence in Iraq has major implications for America's security. Furthermore, the public strongly demands a withdrawal. Seventy-two percent of Americans want the U.S. out of Iraq in two years, and a majority "do not believe Congress has gone far enough" in opposing the war. "Dems, progressives and the media have taken the [bait] on Iran. The reality is that we have 168,000 troops in Iraq not Iran," observes the National Security Network.

THE WAY FORWARD: "Progressives should start with a firm statement that America will undertake a strategic phased redeployment of its troops in a defined period of time," the memo states. Without taking such a definitive stand, they risk drifting along with a policy that will have severe consequences for America's security. The memo also urges three practical steps that should taken to curb the slide into strategic drift. In light of Bush requesting an additional $46 billion for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, "progressives on Capitol Hill should seek to limit this funding by continuing to provide close oversight on the money requested." Progressives also need to continue stressing military readiness and advocate a diplomatic surge, "conceptually integrating Iraq into the broader problems of the region."

UNDER THE RADAR

JUSTICE -- MUKASEY NOMINATION IN JEOPARDY OVER HIS REFUSAL TO CALL WATERBOARDING TORTURE: Earlier this week, Attorney General nominee Michael Mukasey refused to explicitly say whether waterboarding is illegal, leaving several Democrats "very concerned" about his nomination. Since then, nine senators, including four Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee, have said that they will vote against Mukasey. Mukasey needs 10 votes to pass the committee and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) has "signaled the Senate would not consider the nomination if it does not clear a crucial vote next week in the Judiciary Committee." Much of Mukasey's fate now rests in the hands of Sens. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), who have remained mum on their intentions. With Mukasey facing potential defeat, President Bush has ratcheted up his rhetoric. In his speech at the Heritage Foundation yesterday, Bush threatened that if his Mukasey is not confirmed, it "would guarantee that America would have no Attorney General during this time of war." His spokeswoman, Dana Perino, echoed his hyperbolic rhetoric, urging Congress to confirm him now and ask questions later. The committee will vote on Mukasey next Tuesday, Nov. 6.

IRAQ -- ADMINISTRATION FALLS SHORT IN ADMITTING IRAQI REFUGEES: 
"The United States accepted only some 450 Iraqi refugees in October, well short of the Bush administration's stated goal of 1,000 a month." This comes after a September announcement by State Department officials was supposed to "clear the logjam," allowing "about 12,000 Iraqi refugees will be admitted to the United States over the next year." According to the U.N., Iraqis "top the list of people seeking asylum in 36 of the world's richest countries," and "asylum applications...filed by Iraqis rose 45 percent in the first half of 2007 compared to the previous six months." Adding to the difficulties refugees face, Iraqis note that they must travel to neighboring countries like Syria or Jordan to apply for asylum, because they "are not allowed to apply in Iraq." From Oct. 2006 to Sept. 2007, the State Department intended to admit roughly 7,000 refugees but "sharply reduced that figured to 2,000 over the summer when it became clear that the original figure could not be met." The United Nations estimates that over four million Iraqis have been displaced since the start of the war in 2003, leading human rights groups to call it "the world's fastest growing refugee crisis."

ADMINISTRATION -- BUSH CALLS 'WAR ON TERROR' CRITICS 'DISINGENUOUS OR NAIVE': In his speech at the Heritage Foundation yesterday, President Bush attacked critics of the term "war on terror," saying that "people who deny we are at war are either being disingenuous or naive." He added, "We are at war -- and we cannot win this war by wishing it away or pretending it does not exist." Numerous people in the Bush administration, however, have admitted that using the term "war on terror" was a mistake. In September, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Adm. Mike Mullen banned the phrase "Global War on Terror" from "any future correspondence." Both former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and former Joint Chiefs Chairman Richard Myers have stated that the "global war on terror" is misnamed. In 2004, Bush himself admitted the term was a mistake, stating, "We actually misnamed the war on terror, it ought to be the struggle against ideological extremists who do not believe in free societies who happen to use terror as a weapon to try to shake the conscience of the free world."


THINK FAST

"The conservative British newspaper, The Telegraph, has named its top 100 most influential conservatives (and top 100 liberals), and coming in at #2 on the conservative list -- right behind Rudy Giuliani, and just ahead of Matt Drudge, Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh" -- is Gen. David Petraeus.

Several civil rights organizations and leaders are "urging black Americans to refrain from spending money" today in a "national blackout." The move is meant to send a message to Washington "that blacks are fed up with racism and injustice," in light of recent racially-charged incidents nationwide.

"The number of foreign visitors to the United States has plummeted since the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York and Washington because foreigners don't feel welcome," according to tourism professionals. The decline has cost America "94 billion dollars in lost visitor spending, nearly 200,000 jobs and 16 billion dollars in lost tax revenue."

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said he is "weighing" whether to support the Mukasey nomination. "No nominee from this administration will agree with us on things like torture and wiretapping," Schumer explained. "The best we can expect is somebody who will depoliticize the Justice Department and put rule of law first."

Consumer Product Safety Commission chief Nancy Nord and her predecessor "have taken dozens of trips at the expense of the toy, appliance and children's furniture industries and others they regulate," according to internal records. Earlier this week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) called on Nord to resign. 

The Democratic Governor of Puerto Rico, Anibal Acevedo-Vila, "says he has been improperly made a target of Justice Department prosecutors" for political reasons. His "case is one of several under review by the House Judiciary Committee" for allegedly selective prosecution of Democrats by the Bush administration.

While there are pockets of security where life in Baghdad is starting to get back to normal, "it's not normal by most standards. Across the city Sunnis and Shiites live in sectarian enclaves, many walled off. Sunnis fear visiting Shiite areas and vice versa, even if it is just a few blocks away. Trust has broken down so much that a stranger in a neighborhood can arouse enough suspicion to warrant an attack."

On Monday, President Bush "spent an hour with 14 reporters in an off-the-record session -- meaning what he said could not be reported -- to offer those assigned to the White House a rare look at his thinking on a variety of issues." The White House said the strategy driven by "a desire to be creative to try to provide some access to the president."

And finally: Some of Georgetown's "most notable homes" shut out trick-or-treaters on Halloween. Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), CBS News's Bill Plante, and former George H.W. Bush aide C. Boyden Gray, for example, were nowhere to be seen. At the home of journalist Bob Woodward though, "two old men sat on the front steps in front of a glass bowl of lollipops and chocolate treats and mechanically reminded small children to 'just take two. JUST TWO.'"






GOOD NEWS

"The Senate gave final approval to revised legislation expanding the SCHIP children's health insurance program, again defying President Bush, who has said he will veto the measure for the second time."

STATE WATCH

MINNESOTA: "Three months after the Interstate 35W bridge collapsed, construction of a replacement" bridge has begun.

VIRGINIA: "Virginia's attempt to revive its law restricting abortion received a skeptical reception from a panel of federal judges."

ENERGY: "A desire for a starry night and concern about rising energy prices are prompting a growing number of cities and counties to dim their lights at night."

BLOG WATCH

THINK PROGRESS: President Bush grasps for relevancy by bashing "MoveOn.org bloggers" and "Code Pink protesters."

WAR ROOM: White House spokeswoman Dana Perino on Attorney General Nominee Michael Mukasey: confirm now, question later.

THE REAL RUDY: New York City Councilman calls for an investigation into former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani's handling of faulty radios used by firefighters on 9/11.

DAILY GRILL

"Iraqi civilian deaths have also declined in recent months."
-- Gen. Raymond Odierno, 11/1/07

VERSUS

"The number of Iraqis killed in insurgent and sectarian attacks rose in October, according to government figures obtained on Thursday."
-- AFP, 11/1/07


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