IRAQ
Petraeus's Song And Dance
Today, Gen. David Petraeus begins his much-anticipated report to
Congress on progress in Iraq. His appearance marks the most
high-profile appearance of a war general on Capitol Hill since Gen.
William Westmoreland testified on April 28th, 1967, that America was
making progress in Vietnam. Petraeus is expected to make a similar
argument about the Bush administration's efforts in Iraq, rebuffing
calls for a redeployment
of U.S. troops and arguing that the troop buildup should be kept in
place until at least spring
2008. Yet already there is reason to be skeptical of the "facts" he
will use to back-up his claims of success, with reports that the
administration has watered down reports, taken undeserved credit for
progress on the ground, and fudged statistics. Approximately 66
percent of the American public believe President Bush will stick
with his policy no matter what Petraeus reports, and 53 percent say
Petraeus will try to make things in Iraq look better than they are.
Sixty-five to 70 percent of Iraqis say escalation has "worsened
rather than improved security, political stability and the pace of
redevelopment alike."
MYTH #1 -- SECTARIAN DEATHS IN BAGHDAD
HAVE DROPPED 75 PERCENT SINCE 2006: In late August, Petraeus
told The Australian that "there had been a 75
per cent reduction in religious and ethnic killings since last
year." He is expected to make a similar claim today. Yet reports
indicate that the
Pentagon may be undercounting sectarian deaths. Intelligence analysts
who computed "aggregate
levels of violence against civilians" for the recent National
Intelligence Estimate (NIE) "puzzled over how the military designated
attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal." "If a bullet went through
the back of the head, it's sectarian," said one senior intelligence
official. "If it went through the front, it's criminal." The Pentagon's
sectarian violence numbers also exclude Sunni on Sunni violence, Shiite on Shiite violence, and car bombs. In
an April interview, Bush attempted to explain his subjective rationale
for excluding car bombs: "If the standard
of success is no car bombings or suicide bombings, we have just
handed those who commit suicide bombings a huge victory." The number of
car bombings have actually increased five
percent since December. Additionally, the NIE found that conflict
levels in Baghdad "have
diminished to some extent" because of widespread
ethnic cleansing.
MYTH #2 -- SECTARIAN DEATHS REACHED
MORE THAN 1,600 IN DEC. 2006: Not only is the Pentagon
underreporting recent sectarian deaths, it also raising the number of
past incidents in order to make the "reduction" seem more impressive.
In
March, the Pentagon's quarterly report estimated that in Dec. 2006 --
right before the President announced his escalation -- "there were
about 1,300
sectarian slayings across Iraq." But in its June report, "the
Pentagon revised the December 2006 death toll to more than 1,600. That
change makes the decline to about 600 in April -- after the surge began
-- even more dramatic." Much of the Pentagon's data and methodology is
classified. Last week, Goverment Accountability Office comptroller
David Walker told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that there are
"several
different sources within the administration" who "do not agree" on
levels of violence. He added that he "could
not get comfortable" with the way the Pentagon calculated such a
steep drop in sectarian violence.
MYTH #3 -- SECTARIAN DEATHS ARE
DECLINING ACROSS THE COUNTRY: Despite the government's claim
that Baghdad casualties are dramatically dropping, war-related deaths
throughout Iraq have doubled compared with last year, rising to "an average daily toll of
33 in 2006, and 62 so far this year." "Bombings, sectarian slayings
and other violence related to the war killed
at least 1,773 Iraqi civilians in August, the second month in a row
that civilian deaths have risen." Additionally, the recent NIE found
that over the next six to 12 months, "levels of
insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high."
MYTH #4 -- BUSH'S ESCALATION IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR PROGRESS IN ANBAR: One of the success stories
Petraeus will likely highlight is the reduced violence in the Anbar
province, which was once the "heartland"
of the Sunni insurgency. Last week, Bush made a surprise
visit to the region and used it to argue that the troop buildup
should not be cut short. "In Anbar you're seeing firsthand the
dramatic differences that can come when the Iraqis are more secure,"
said Bush. But the administration's policies had little to do with
Anbar's progress. As the Washington Post noted yesterday, "The sheik
who forged the alliance with the Americans, Abdul Sattar Buzaigh
al-Rishawi, traced the decision to fight al-Qaeda to Sept. 14, 2006,
long before the new Bush strategy, but the president's plan dispatched
another 4,000 U.S. troops to Anbar to exploit the situation. As
security improved, the
White House eagerly took credit." Last week, CNN correspondent
Michael Ware also noted that the Sunni
insurgency in Anbar offered to work with U.S. troops -- not the
Iraqi government -- to fight al Qaeda in 2003, but the United States
rejected the offer. Only "after four years
of bloodshed" was the United States "finally ready to accept those
terms."
MYTH #5 -- AL QAEDA IN IRAQ IS 'PUBLIC
ENEMY NUMBER ONE': In July, Bush referred to al Qaeda 95
times in a single speech, claiming the war in Iraq has become the central
front in the fight against al Qaeda (AQ-I). Echoing Bush, Petraeus
recently argued that al Qaeda is "public
enemy number one" in Iraq, and will likely make a similar claim to
Congress this week. But in a new report,
the Congressional Research Service (CRS) notes that attacks from al
Qaeda are
only a small percentage of the violence in Iraq, criticizing the Bush
administration's statistics and noting that this false reporting on
AQ-I
has increased since Bush's "surge" began. "Increasingly in 2007, U.S.
commanders have seemed to equate AQ-I with the insurgency, even though
most of the daily attacks are carried out by Iraqi Sunni insurgents,"
concluded CRS.
IRAQ -- GEN. PETRAEUS TO GIVE
EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW TO FOX NEWS TONIGHT: After
spending the day telling Congress that President
Bush's escalation strategy in Iraq should continue, Gen. David
Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker will take their PR campaign to a
more comfortable setting: Fox News this evening.
On Fox News Sunday yesterday, host Chris Wallace announced the
interview, saying that at 9:00 p.m. EST, Fox News' Brit Hume "will have
an exclusive interview" with Petraeus and Crocker "about the state of
the Iraq war and their testimony to Congress." In a recent report on
Iraq, the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office raised
concerns that Gen. Petraeus' numbers do not reflect the reality on
the ground, specifically the levels of sectarian violence, which the
watchdog said are much higher than Petraeus and the military have been saying. After concerns were raised over the
military's statistics, it was announced that Petraeus won't
issue a report after all. Now, in another attempt to avoid
scrutiny, Petraeus will be taking his cooked stats to a friendly forum
on Fox.
IRAQ -- POLL: NEARLY 70 PERCENT OF
IRAQIS SAY ESCALATION 'HAS WORSENED' THEIR LIVES: In June,
outgoing Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Peter Pace argued that
U.S. success in Iraq "is not about levels of violence" but that "it's
about progress...in the minds of the Iraqi
people." What's most important is do the Iraqi people feel better
about today
than they did about yesterday, and do they think tomorrow's going to be
better than today? If the answer to those two questions is yes, then
we're on the right path." By Pace's own metric, the United States is on
the
wrong path. An ABC/BBC/NHK poll released today shows that since the escalation began, Iraqi opinion has
starkly turned against the U.S. occupation, as most Iraqis see "deepening
dissatisfaction with conditions in Iraq, lower ratings for the
national government and growing rejection of the U.S. role there." For
example, 65 to 70 percent of Iraqis say the escalation has
"worsened rather than improved security." Thirty-nine percent say
"their lives
are going well," down from 71 percent in Nov. 2005. Forty-seven percent
now favor "immediate withdrawal of U.S. forces," a 12-point rise since
March. Overwhelming majorities of those surveyed give negative
ratings to electricity, jobs, and access to health care.
CIVIL LIBERTIES -- FORMER SENATE INTEL
CHAIR REPORTS WHITE HOUSE MISLED ABOUT WIRETAP BRIEFINGS: White
House officials have repeatedly claimed that they briefed
Congress about the domestic surveillance program. In late
2005, former Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Bob
Graham (D-FL)
and other members of Congress reported that
the White House never informed them about surveillance of U.S.
citizens. When Graham challenged the assertion that the White House had
briefed him on the program, the
White House produced a list of dates for the alleged meetings. Graham told
The Progress Report that on several of those dates he was not even
in Washington D.C. The White House later acknowledged to Graham that it
had the wrong dates, but the White House persisted in distributing
false information. In July, the AP reported
a four-page memo authored by then-Director of National Intelligence
John Negroponte which asserted that
Graham was briefed on four dates: October 25, 2001; November 14, 2001;
April 10, 2002; and July 8, 2002. Former
senator Bob Graham told The Progress Report that on two of the
dates in
question
there were not any briefings. On the two other dates he did
attend White House briefings, but stands by his statement that he
was never informed of the White House's domestic
surveillance. These contradictions should raise concerns about the White
House's
claims that members of Congress had knowledge of the program prior
to its implementation.
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"President Bush is expected to name an attorney general soon
- perhaps this week.
The five finalists: Michael Mukasey, Theodore B. (Ted) Olson, Laurence
H. Silberman, George J. Terwilliger and Larry D. Thompson." Olson
appears to be emerging as the frontrunner.
60 percent: Americans who say we "should set a timetable to
withdraw forces 'and stick
to that timetable regardless of what is going on in Iraq.'"
The White
House's decision to send Rosh Hashanah greetings a week early elicited "a quizzical reaction around town among the president's Jewish
friends and supporters." Former RNC chairman Ken Mehlman, who, like
White House chief of staff Josh Bolten, is Jewish, "sent Bolten an
e-mail asking why
the White House had seemingly flubbed the date."
Barry Jackson, one of Karl Rove's key replacements in the
White House, is seen as a "highly
partisan go-getter." An acquaintance of Jackson's said he isn't
interested "'let's get along' kind of stuff."
The Pentagon is preparing to build its first base for U.S. forces
near the Iraqi-Iranian border, a major new effort to curb the flow of advanced
Iranian weaponry to Shiite militants across Iraq. "The base will be
located about four miles from the Iranian border and will be used
for at least two years."
In a new study of the neurobiology of politics, "scientists
have found that liberals
tolerate ambiguity and conflict better than conservatives because of how their brains work. " The study found that "liberals were
4.9 times as likely as conservatives to show activity in the brain
circuits that deal with conflicts."
"US regulators will on Monday present results of a year-long inquiry
into investment scams that are fleecing retirees out of their life
savings. The Securities and Exchange Commission will report on the growing
phenomenon of 'free lunch' seminars that financial advisers offer
to older people."
9/11 Commission co-chairs Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton write:
"Two years ago, we and our colleagues issued a report card assessing
the U.S. government's progress on the bipartisan recommendations in the
9/11 commission report. We concluded that the nation was not safe
enough. Our
judgment remains the same today: We still lack a sense of urgency
in the face of grave danger."
And finally: At an event promoting children's health insurance
legislation, Rep. John Dingell (D-MI) "noted that the bill would insure
12 million more kids and pointed out that President
Bush 'used to be for this.'" "But let me tell you something about
him," Dingell continued. "I knew him before he was a virgin."
Dingell provided no further context for his "virgin" comment.
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On Friday, Congress "approved legislation yesterday that cuts
more than $20 billion in government subsidies to institutions that
make student loans, and uses most of that money to pay for increased
financial aid for college students."
MISSOURI:
Federal judge to review anti-abortion law that would force "the
immediate closure" of some abortion clinics.
TEXAS:
Teachers may be forced to pay for their own criminal background tests.
HEALTH CARE: Bush administration denies New York's request to
expand SCHIP
to some uninsured middle-class families, potentially affecting
several other states.
THINK
PROGRESS: GQ's Robert Draper: President Bush doesn't follow an
'honest line of questioning" with generals about Iraq.
ABU
AARDVARK: During his trip to Iraq, President Bush spent an hour
with an Iraqi leader with "a rather unsavory reputation as one of the
shadiest figures in
the Sunni community."
THE
YOUNG TURKS: Newsweek's Baghdad correspondent says "strolling"
around Baghdad as a Westerner is "suicidal."
HUFFINGTON
POST: Former Bush pollster Matthew Dowd: The public believes going
to Iraq was a mistake and sees withdrawal as a way to support the
troops.
We're "kicking their ass."
-- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on the Iraq war, 9/7/07
VERSUS
Every month in 2007 has seen more U.S. military casualties than the
same month in 2006.
-- icasualties.org
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