IRAQ
Entering The Drawdown Phase
In his much-anticipated testimony before the House Armed Services and Foreign
Affairs Committees yesterday, Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S.
forces in Iraq, called for the
withdrawal of 30,000 troops by next summer. That move would return force
levels to the "pre-surge" number of 130,000 by mid-July. Beyond that, Petraeus
asked for another
six months before determining whether further reductions can be made.
The general's proposal "opened
a new phase" in the debate over Bush's strategy -- "from this point on,
the argument will no longer be about whether to withdraw U.S. troops but
about how
many to pull out and how quickly." Petraeus has repeatedly said he envisions a
decade-long presence in Iraq. Thus, his call for a small drawdown can
hardly be interpreted as bringing about the safe and orderly redeployment
that Americans
want and our national
security interests demand. Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA) referred to Petraeus's
call as "a token proposal" and "nothing but a political
whisper, unacceptable." The general attempted to dismiss a more
rapid redeployment plan as impracticable. (The Center for American Progress
reports a
one-year redeployment can be done in conjunction with a Strategic
Reset of our presence in the region.) Saleh Adnan, a 34-year old car
mechanic in Iraq, said of Petraeus's report, "I don't think this will change
anything in our country because the Americans will never leave Iraq. For
us the main point is when the occupation will end." Said Adnan: "For me the
main report will be the one which
announces the American departure."
SPINNING THE DRAWDOWN: In announcing
his drawdown, Petraeus claimed that "we will be able to reduce our forces" because
significant "progress" has
been made in Iraq. The reality is that the military does not have the troops
to sustain these high levels without further weakening the overstretched Army.
Given the fact the Army has been clear about not
wanting to extend the tours of soldiers any longer than they currently are,
Petraeus's withdrawal is the natural result of the fact the administration has
so few options left but to drawdown. Gen. Ray Odierno, a key Petraeus aide,
acknowledged as much last month when he said, "We know we'll have to start
to reduce in April of '08 at the latest." Army Chief of Staff George Casey
added, "If the demands don't go down over time, it will become increasingly difficult
for us to provide
the trained and ready forces." While the media is largely accepting Petraeus's
spin that the drawdown is a sign of "progress," a
New York Times editorial properly notes that Petraeus's call is "the rough equivalent
of dropping an object and taking
credit for gravity."
SPINNING ANBAR: During his testimony
yesterday, Petraeus cited the reduced violence in the Anbar province as evidence
that President Bush's "surge" is working. "When
I testified in January, for example," he said, "no
one would have dared to forecast that Anbar Province would have been transformed
the way it has in the past 6 months." In fact, Petraeus himself forecasted Anbar's
success during his January confirmation hearing before the Senate. Testifying
before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Jan. 23, Petraeus said, "[R]ight
now there appears to be a
trend in the positive direction where sheikhs are stepping up and they do
want to be affiliated with and supported by the U.S. Marines and Army forces
who are in Anbar province. That was not the case as little as perhaps six months
ago, or certainly before that." The significance of this contradiction is that
Petraeus is attempting to claim success for Bush's escalation by citing progress
that was occurring prior
to the surge. Anecdotal evidence suggests that what drove political progress
in Anbar was not heavy U.S. military presence, but rather the prospect
of U.S. withdrawals.
CROCKER'S REPORT SUGGESTS STRATEGY OF SURGE
IS FAILING: When Bush announced the escalation, he claimed the strategy
was to reduce violence to "make
[political] reconciliation possible." Ambassador Ryan Crocker, who testified
with Petraeus yesterday, "had the task of making a
coherent case for extending a substantial American presence" even though
the strategy has failed and political advances in Iraq have amounted to little.
His conclusions were "measured and far
from rosy. He admitted that he was 'frustrated every day I am in Iraq.'" He
also "acknowledged that political
reconciliation in the form of legislation in Baghdad is
at a standstill," offering little hope of a near-term resolution. Chairman
Lantos assessed, "Prime Minister Maliki has not shown the slightest inclination
to move in
the direction of compromise. Instead of working to build national institutions
-- a truly Iraqi army, a competent bureaucracy, a nonsectarian police force --
Maliki has moved in the opposite direction." Crocker refused to sound a critical
note about Maliki, telling Fox News's Brit Hume last night, "I think he is a
person of integrity and courage." "Really?" a shocked Hume responded.
THE VOICES OF IRAQIS: The media
circus that enveloped Petraeus's testimony distracted attention away from
another important voice that emerged yesterday -- the Iraqi people. A national
survey of Iraqi public opinion conducted by ABC News, BBC, and Japanese broadcaster
NHK found that 70
percent of Iraqis report Bush's escalation has "worsened rather than improved
security." Seventy-eight percent say "things
are going badly," a jump of 13 points since the surge began. Almost
eighty percent of Iraqis oppose the presence of U.S. forces, affirming the perspective
of seven members of the 82nd Airborne who wrote in the New York Times that the
military is viewed as "army
of occupation" in Iraq. In June, outgoing Joint Chiefs chairman Peter Pace
said the fundamental question the United States should use to measure success
is whether "Iraqis feel
better today than they did yesterday." The answer to that question is a
resounding no.
IRAQ -- PETRAEUS TESTIMONY IGNORES ETHNIC
CLEANSING IN IRAQ: Yesterday, Gen. David Petraeus told Congress that
President Bush's "surge" is working. As evidence, he cited "security gains" and
reduced violence in Baghdad. But as McClatchy notes, none of Petraeus's charts
that "purported
to show the decline in sectarian violence in Baghdad between December
and August made" brought up the fact "that the ethnic character of many of
the neighborhoods had changed in that same period from majority Sunni Muslim
or mixed to majority Shiite Muslim." A recent Newsweek analysis found that
the Bush administration's escalation has actually "increased
the [internally displaced persons] to some extent." The Iraqi Red Crescent
Organization and the United Nations reported last month that the "number
of Iraqis fleeing their homes has
soared since the American troop increase began in February." Despite
the mass exodus of Iraqis from conflict zones, the Iraqi health ministry
reports there still have been more
civilian deaths this month than in previous months. The National Intelligence
Estimate confirmed that where some "conflict levels have diminished," it
has been due
to ethnic cleansing.
AFGHANISTAN -- RUMSFELD PROCLAIMS AFGHANISTAN A 'BIG SUCCESS': In an new
interview with GQ magazine, former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld insists
that in Afghanistan, "28
million people are free. They have their own president, they have their on
parliament. Improved a lot on the streets. ... It's been a big success!" In reality,
the country has been abandoned
by the United States. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai said recently that
security there had "definitely
deteriorated," an assessment one former national security official deemed "a
very diplomatic understatement." Yesterday, two suicide
bombings killed more than 20 Afghans, representing the rise of terrorist
attacks in the country. The Taliban has carried out "103 suicide bombings in
Afghanistan in the first eight months of 2007, a 69
percent increase over the same period last year." The resurgence of Taliban
power has also led to record
production levels of opium for the second year in a row. Rumsfeld, meanwhile,
insists that he continues to receive "hundreds
and hundreds" of letters "complimenting" him for his service to the country.
TERRORISM -- ON ANNIVERSARY OF 9/11, BIN LADEN
STILL AT LARGE, AL QAEDA RESURGENT: Recently, Homeland Security Adviser
Frances Townsend called Osama bin Laden "virtually
impotent" after he released a tape threatening
attacks against the United States. But in a congressional hearing yesterday,
intelligence officials said that bin Laden "remained the most
dangerous terrorist threat to the United States," contradicting the White
House line. "[W]e are not safe, and nor are we likely to be for a generation
or more," said John Scott Redd, National Counter Terrorism Center Director. In
reality, al Qaeda "retains the ability to organize complex, mass-casualty attacks
and inspire others." Bin Laden, who "already has a safe
haven in Pakistan" and "may be stronger than ever," is behind much of this
resurgence. He has been "able to fill in the gaps between their megaplots with
a rising stream of smaller-scale, homegrown attacks." Some Bush administration
officials recently conceded that they overestimated
the damage done to al Qaeda since 2001.
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In New York City, "the firefighters and first responders
who helped rescue New Yorkers" -- and later recovered the dead -- from
the World Trade Center, will "read
the victims' names for the first time Tuesday at the sixth anniversary
ceremony." Tributes are also planned in Shanksville, PA, where Flight 93
went down and in Washington, D.C.
Six years after 9/11, just three in 10 Americans "believe that the U.S. and
its allies are winning the war on terrorism," according to a new CNN
poll. That number is down from
41 percent "when the same question was asked at the beginning of last year."
A group of Baghdadis watching the testimony of Gen. David Petraeus and Amb.
Ryan Crocker yesterday were "unimpressed." "I don't think this will change
anything in our country because the Americans will never leave Iraq," said
Saleh Adnan, a car mechanic. "For me, the main report will be the
one which announces the American departure."
Contradicting President Bush's homeland security adviser Frances Fragos Townsend,
who recently called Osama bin Laden "virtually
impotent," "U.S. intelligence and law enforcement chiefs and a Cabinet
member said Monday that Osama bin Laden remained the most dangerous terrorist
threat to the United States six
years after the 9-11 attacks."
A new AP poll finds that the "public sees the Iraq war as a failure and thinks
the U.S.
troop buildup there has not worked." By "59 percent to 34 percent, more
people said they believe history will judge the Iraq war a complete or partial
failure than a success."
Yesterday while Gen. David Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker testified to Congress
about progress in Iraq, nine U.S. troops in Iraq were killed. Additionally,
a "truck
bomb killed 10 people and wounded 60 in northern Iraq, police said."
In an "effort to show that the Justice Department engaged in political
prosecutions," House leaders "are beginning an investigation this week
of the prosecution
of Don Siegelman, the former Democratic governor of Alabama who was imprisoned
in June on federal corruption charges."
46: Number of senators, including six Republicans, who yesterday called
on President Bush "to rescind new administrative restrictions that will make
it harder for states to expand their popular State
Children's Health Insurance Program."
And finally: The "highly anticipated hearing before the Armed Services and
Foreign Affairs committees" yesterday was marked with "outbursts from CODEPINK
protesters and snafus
with witnesses' microphones." "That really pisses me off, Duncan," said
chairman Ike Skelton (D-MO), not realizing his mic was still on. When Rep.
Duncan Hunter (R-CA) "leaned in" to talk about the protestors, Skelton could
be heard stating, "Those a--holes."
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"The Senate approved
$1 billion Monday to speed repair and replacement of America's crumbling
network of bridges" -- a 20 percent increase in federal funding.
ILLINOIS: "An
Iraqi-American near Chicago is overseeing the finishing of the Pentagon memorial" to
9/11 victims.
UTAH: A newly formed
Utah Mine Safety Commission begins to investigate the Crandall Canyon mine tragedy.
CALIFORNIA:
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) plans to veto a proposal to overhaul California's
health care system.
THINK PROGRESS:
Report: Gen. David Petraeus spent at least 17 days in August flacking for President
Bush's escalation.
MATTHEW
YGLESIAS: Brookings Institution's Michael O'Hanlon's tour of the right-wing
press shows "that he's cast himself out of the broad left-of-center community" on
Iraq and foreign policy.
THE
NEXT HURRAH: White House misses key deadline for report on its "problems
with lost email."
TPM MUCKRAKER:
Gen. David Petraeus says he "stands by" his disputed 2004 op-ed on progress in
Iraq.
Osama bin Laden "is a man on the run in a cave who is virtually impotent
other than his ability to get these messages out."
-- Homeland Security Adviser Fran Townsend, 9/9/07
VERSUS
"U.S. intelligence and law enforcement chiefs and a Cabinet member said Monday
that Osama bin Laden remained the most dangerous terrorist threat to the United
States six years after the 9-11 attacks."
-- McClatchy, 9/10/07
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