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by Judd Legum, Faiz Shakir, Nico Pitney
Amanda Terkel and Payson Schwin

IRAQ	Missing a Post-Election Plan
TRADE	Death By Status Quo
UNDER THE RADAR	Go Beyond The Headlines
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IRAQ
Missing a Post-Election Plan

Ten million Iraqis are expected to head to the polls tomorrow to choose a 275-member Council of Representatives in the first free parliamentary elections since the fall of Saddam Hussein. In his speech on Monday, President Bush called tomorrow's elections the "fourth milestone" in Iraq's transition to democracy and "a remarkable event in the Arab world." Bush is right that the elections are an important step in Iraq's critical transition period. But the campaigns have highlighted sectarian differences, security problems, and corruption issues that will not disappear, and could worsen, after the elections. Thus far, Bush's speeches have contained no plans for the post-election period. In his speech today at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, D.C., the President needs to look beyond Thursday's milestone and prepare for what comes next. (American Progress’s plan “Strategic Redeployment” offers a new approach to support Iraq’s reconstruction and transition to democracy.)

SECTARIAN DIFFERENCES THREATEN TO EXPLODE: The violence in the run-up to the elections has highlighted "deep social fissures within Iraq's rival ethnic and religious groups" and "almost everyone [in Iraq] acknowledges that a single Iraqi state with a unified central government cannot contain the competing aspirations of religious Shi'ites, tribal Sunnis, and Kurds looking for independence from Iraq's Arab majority." Many Shi'ites, who currently have a majority in the government, are preparing for victory as the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), a "bloc of eighteen conservative Islamist parties," is again expected to receive the most votes. But if the UIA does not win, violence may erupt; the Badr Organization, a leading member of the Alliances, has threatened that it will "take up arms" if "Baathists" return to power. After sitting out the Jan. 30 interim elections, Sunni clerics are now encouraging their members to vote, but many still distrust the current Iraqi government, seen to be "dominated by religious Shi'ites bent on revenge." Kurds, who currently hold the prime minister position, are hoping to increase their autonomy from the rest of Iraq.

SECURITY CONCERNS THREATEN PROGRESS: The Bush administration is measuring Iraq's security by the number of trained Iraqi security forces. President Bush has said, "As Iraqis stand up, we will stand down," and in yesterday's press briefing, Scott McClellan confirmed a reporter's statement that "the equation for a more secure environment, [is] that the Iraqi security forces are handling the security, not necessarily that security is improved." But these statements are ignoring the violence on the ground, which has been intense in the final days of campaigning. Political candidates have been killed, including an assassination yesterday of a Sunni candidate. Iraqi security forces are also becoming dangerously political, threatening the security they are supposed to provide all Iraqi citizens. On Monday, Iraqi soldiers in Ramadi held posters of Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr and chanted support for 555, the numerical designation of the Shiite religious slate: "Anyone who does not vote 555 is not one of us."

CORRUPTION ISSUES THREATEN DEMOCRATIC REFORMS: Bush has acknowledged corruption problems at both the local and national levels in Iraq. But he has not outlined a plan for dealing with this potentially explosive issue, which has intensified in the parliamentary campaigns. "The idea of using power to benefit a circle of friends, relatives and loyalists is so entrenched in the regional culture that there are half a dozen words in Arabic that mean patronage or cronyism," reports the LA Times. Fear of violence has restricted door-to-door canvassing in campaigns, so that "the battle for hearts and minds is taking place over the airwaves," benefiting parties and candidates with outside financing. There are "no limits to how much airtime one can buy, nor on what can be said on air [and it is] also permissible to give away free gifts." Only 53 percent of the Iraqi population trusts its national government and only 25 percent trust political parties.

TRADE
Death By Status Quo

Prepare yourself to be underwhelmed. Trade negotiators from around the world are gathering this week in Hong Kong; their efforts are likely to amount to a grand exercise in propping up the untenable global trade status quo. In that outrageous set up, the world's poorest farmers struggle in vain to compete against heavily subsidized rich-world competitors, while small family farmers in the United States are placed in a vice, prevented from innovating because of a lack of smart government investment. Agriculture producers at home and abroad have a simple desire: a fair market price for their products. The problem lies now with their representatives in Hong Kong, who lack a vision of agriculture as a global commodity that can be developed in ways that will benefit farmers in both the developed and developing worlds.

THE LOST PROMISE OF THE DOHA ROUND: Hong Kong was supposed to have been a crucial stepping stone in the Doha "Development" Round (named for Doha, Qatar, where the negotiations were launched in 2001). The round was initiated with a commitment by the world’s richest nations to make development a centerpiece of trade reform, to enable poorer countries to participate and make real gains in areas of relative competitive strength like agriculture (which sustains 70 percent of the rural poor in developing countries). Frustrated negotiators are now trying to cobble together a face-saving 'development package' designed to increase exports from roughly 30 of the world's least-developed nations (details here). Yet this modest deal will likely come as a substitute for progress on the key issues that have paralyzed years of trade talks.

A DISINGENUOUS CALL FOR REFORM: Judged by its rhetoric, the Bush administration may seem committed to trade and subsidies reform; U.S. trade representative Rob Portman this week summoned fellow negotiators to "aim high and make history." Yet there is little substance to back these words. The White House position on trade reform wasn't the result of high-level negotiations involving Congress and relevant private sector actors, but was simply announced one day in a Financial Times op-ed. Consequently, U.S. negotiators' pledges often carry little weight, since they have failed to work closely with the members of Congress who must approve any trade-related policy shifts. ("Indeed, there will be no official congressional delegation in Hong Kong, a departure from custom.") As it stands, U.S. farm policy is unacceptable, not least for its inequity: between 1995 and 2004, 72 percent of $140 billion worth of farm subsidies went to 10 percent of farms (mostly large agri-businesses), and the bulk of U.S. subsidies and payments are limited to five major commodity crops: cotton, corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice. At those subsidization levels, the U.S. spends "up to three dollars in support to their farmers for every dollar they spend on foreign aid."

WHAT IF AGRICULTURE SUBSIDIES ARE CUT? BUSH HAS NO PLAN: Given the administration's purported support for agriculture subsidy reform, one would assume President Bush had a viable plan for growing American farms in a future with potentially less traditional farm support. They have no such plan. This, in turn, simply entrenches opposition to subsidy reform, by fueling the misperception that livelihoods at home must be sacrificed for the benefit of people on the other side of the globe -- and that trade hurts Americans. At a time when trade is growing more important to the future of the American economy, this is a perception we cannot afford to fuel.

SMALL FARMERS SHUT OUT OF DEBATE: Another set of failed talks endangers the livelihoods of America's small farmers, who are already struggling with record low market prices. The stakes are even higher for the world's poorest -- the billions of children and families in the developing world "whose survival is threatened by unfair trade policies." Despite this, the world's agriculture producers are mostly locked out of this week's negotiations. "American farmers have had precious little opportunity to raise their concerns and ideas with people within the administration," former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) said last week at a conference sponsored by American Progress (watch the video).

HOW TO BREAK THROUGH THE STALEMATE: Significant economic growth in the United States has always come through a combination of innovation and far-sighted investment. American Progress has proposed a way forward. By dramatically increasing investment in the research, development, and deployment components of a large-scale agriculture-based energy sector and providing the incentives and risk-management tools that can support the transition to new crops, the U.S. government and private sector can transform the lives of America's small farmers. Simultaneously, we can reduce our costly dependence on foreign oil and pave the way for greater energy security. Clean energy from agriculture will also be critical in reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preventing dangerous climate destabilization. And, finally, by developing a new competitive edge and creating new domestic markets, we can free up other commodity markets to the developing world and help to ensure that the world’s poorest farmers can fairly compete. Check out our full plan, "Resources for Global Growth."